Polinaut: October 4, 2006 Archive

Foley poll-ution

Posted at 8:13 AM on October 4, 2006 by Bob Collins (3 Comments)

Electoral Vote Predictor has the first poll in the Florida district once represented by Rep. Mark Foley.

RT Strategies did the poll. Now, you have to remember that Foley is still on the ballot. So in order to be able to vote for his Republican replacement, you actually have to pull the lever -- or mark an X, or remove the chad, or send an Instant Message... whatever the heck they do down in the Fightin' 16th -- for Mark Foley.

RT Strategies tried to deal with this by running two polls, one a straight choice of Foley vs. Democrat Tim Mahoney and one in which they explained the situation. In the former, Mahoney led 50% to 43%. In the latter, Mahoney still led, but now only by 49% to 46%. We will put the latter one in the data base on the assumption that by November, most of the voters will know the scoop. Either way, this looks like a pickup for the Democrats.

Meanwhile, Zogby is out with polls in his battleground districts, according to a forwarded story to me by Mike Mulcahy today, from Reuters.

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Democrats lead in races for 11 of 15 crucial Republican-held U.S. House seats a month before Nov. 7 elections, putting them within reach of seizing control of the chamber, according to Reuters/Zogby polls released Wednesday. Republican incumbents are at particularly high risk, the polls found, with seven of nine trailing their Democratic challengers in the high-stakes battle for control of the U.S. Congress.

I believe the Minnesota 6th was in this group but I haven't found the breakout on that yet. No indication of it. Wetterling is one of the Dems trailing -- but near or within the margin of error, Reuters says.

Worth noting, however, that the results for Rep. Chris Shays (R-CT.) were flipped from a UConn (I think it was UConn) poll taken over the same period. Poll buyer beware.

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In a generic ballot poll (meaningless, we know), CNN shows an 11% lead for the generic Democratic congressional candidate over the generic Republican candidate. This is one taken while the Foley scandal was brewing. That is slightly more than a poll (from Diageo) a week earlier, but four points less than a generic poll (from CBS) in mid-September, and 6 points less than the biggest Democratic lead according to a poll (from the Washington Post) lalast January.

Meanwhile, the Wall Street Journal and NBC are out with a poll today showing 41% think more favorable of Democrat House control as a result of the scandal, 18% think more favorably of Republicans (huh?) and 35% say the poll is having no effect.

Of course the question itself is one of the stupidest ones I've seen in polling in awhile since it really doesn't tell you anything. The 41% who think more favorably of Democrat control, and 18% of those who feel more favorable about Republican control of Congress may already have been Democrat and Republican voters to begin with.

That didn't stop the WSJ this morning (free content) from blaring that the fallout from the scandal "is obvious."

Charlie Cook, on the other hand, expects a turning point in momentum not only because of the Foley scandal, but also because of the leaked intelligence report on Iraq.

Hey! Foley sure knocked that story to the back pages, eh?

Sorry Bob Woodward.

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Reuters poll says the 6th is close

Posted at 8:53 AM on October 4, 2006 by Tom Scheck

The Reuters poll says the race in Minnesota's 6th Congressional District is close. Republican Michele Bachmann leads DFLer Patty Wetterling by three percentage points. Here's the synopsis:

"MINNESOTA 6 - Republican Michele Bachmann leads Democrat Patty Wetterling 46-43 percent in the race to succeed Rep. Mark Kennedy, who is running for senator."

They polled 500 voters. It has a margin of error of 4.5 percentage points. The story didn't say when the poll was in the field. Zogby says the poll was conducted September 25th to October 2nd.

Independence Party member John Binkowski is also running.

Here's a story on the poll.

And the details.

The fightin' 1st

Posted at 9:36 AM on October 4, 2006 by Bob Collins

Sea Stachura has a profile of the race in the 1st District between Gutknecht and Walz. I'm adding extended audio to the story (on the right side). She was able to get Walz' interview up to me last night but ran out of time before Gutknecht's (with our system it takes a ton of time to upload) and so we'll take care of that first thing this morning.

The Daily Digest: 10-4-06

Posted at 10:59 AM on October 4, 2006 by Tom Scheck (7 Comments)

The race in Minnesota's 6th Congressional District leads the digest. A new Reuters/Zogby poll has Republican Michele Bachmann and DFLer Patty Wetterling polling within the margin of error. Bachman is polling at 46%. Wetterling is polling at 43%. The margin of error is 4.5%. Here's a story on the poll.

The New York Times also has a story on President Bush's fundraising appearances. Apparently he told Bachmann to take the gloves off:

"The advice, it seems, goes to matters large and small. Michele Bachmann, a Republican running for an open House seat in Minnesota, said Mr. Bush needled her for wearing scalloped pink gloves for a recent presidential visit to her state. ''What are those for?'' Mr. Bush said, pointing to the gloves, according to Ms. Bachmann. ''When you campaign, take off the gloves.''

City Pages has a story on Bachmann.

And the Club for Growth is backing Bachmann. The no tax group backed Phil Krinkie before the endorsing convention.

DFLer Patty Wetterling is running an ad calling on House leadership to resign. She's getting lots of national press attention on this.

CQ Politics says the NRCC is spending a bundle of money in the Sixth.

Get ready for the DFL to go after Bachmann over the fact that the National Republican Congressional Committee hasn't been returning money it received from Foley's Political Action Committee and one official said they'd like to get his other campaign money. It may be confusing for voters to follow this flow of money. DFL Party Chair Brian Melendez tries to boil it down with this quote:

"We are going to point out the irony and the hypocrisy of attacking a child safety advocate using money raised from a sexual predator."

That's alleged sexual predator, Mr. Chairman. For the record, Michele Bachmann has no control of what the NRCC does because it's an independent organization.

One thing that could hamstring Wetterling is the price of tv ads. USA Today has a story on the high cost of campaign ads and how it could hamper Democratic candidates. Minnesota is mentioned.

WCCO-TV has primer on campaign advertising.

Guess what? We find out that negative ads work.

Former Governor Jesse Ventura hits the airwaves and the media goes crazy. The Star Tribune and WCCO have stories.

MPR takes a look at the candidates running in the First Congressional District. DFLer Tim Walz also criticizes GOP incumbent Gil Gutknecht for calling the Foley scandal a "distraction" in this Bloomberg article.

Republican Congressman John Kline and DFL challenger Coleen Rowley will debate the issues today on a cable access show.

Roll Call reports that House Majority Whip Steny Hoyer, D-MD, will campaign in Minnesota.

Focus on the Family held a rally last night. AP, KARE-11, MPR and the Star Tribune have stories on their get out the vote efforts.

If the rally goers went for a night cap at a local bar, they may have sat on a patio that was built with taxpayer money according to the St. Paul Pi Press (I know it's a weak stretch but the story is good).

Former Secretary of State Colin Powell delivers a speech at the University of Minnesota. KARE-11, MPR and the Star Tribune are among the outlets that have stories.

The Star Tribune takes a look at where the U.S. Senate candidates stand on the budget.

State Auditor Pat Anderson is calling for a criminal investigation into the Minneapolis Teacher's Pension Fund. The Star Tribune and the AP have stories.

The Star Tribune says this is the time lobbyists usually cough up cash.

Governor Pawlenty will hold a meeting in St. Paul on Friday with some Iron Range legislators on the Ainsworth lay-offs.

Pawlenty also wants some accountability.

The GOP endorsed Steve Drazkowski after he won the primary. He's running against DFL state senator Steve Murphy.

Rothenberg Political report calls the race for control of the Minnesota House a "toss-up."

Some legislative candidates debate in Bemidji.

Another candidate asks voters not to vote for him. Really.

A Maine Senator says she doesn't like the "imposter lobster." C'mon try it with your best Maine accent "impostah lobstah!"

Finally, a good-bye to New York Times journalist R.W. Apple. He covered everything from wars to politics to food. He's a journalism legend. A mighty oak has fallen, my friends.

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The legislative candidates in the West Metro don't like Pawlenty's 70 percent goal

Posted at 11:21 AM on October 4, 2006 by Tom Scheck

MPR's Laura McCallum moderated a forum for legislative candidates in three districts in the western suburbs last night. DFL Senator Terri Bonoff and Republican Judy Johnson in district 43, Republican Bill Cullen and DFL Representative Maria Ruud in 42A and DFLer John Benson and Republican Dave Johnson in 43B talked about education issues. Not surprisingly, all of them say education is their top priority. But perhaps more surprising, McCallum says, is no one supports Gov. Pawlenty's push for a requirement that schools spend 70 percent of education funding in the classroom. They thought it was a bad idea, and an unnecessary mandate from the state. We'll put audio of the forum on the Web shortly.

It's the same, but it's different

Posted at 12:16 PM on October 4, 2006 by Bob Collins (6 Comments)

The partisans have taken the Foley debate to its predictable point -- finding the previous page "scandal" and comparing notes, and adjusting appropriately to come to the conclusion that their side is better. Yawn.

But Michael Barone, hardly an apologist for the left, has a more interesting perspective -- expulsion would have been appropriate for Foley, but censure was appropriate for Gerry Studds and Dan Crane.

Why? I guess you could call it the "ick factor." We know more details now about these things than we did then.

How 'bout that Internet!

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Wetterling will deliver this week's Democratic radio address

Posted at 12:23 PM on October 4, 2006 by Tom Scheck (3 Comments)

Corey Day, Patty Wetterling's campaign manager, told MPR's Tim Pugmire that Wetterling will deliver the Democratic radio address to the nation on Saturday. ABC's "The Note" also reports it here.

Wetterling is running for Congress in Minnesota's 6th District against Republican Michele Bachmann and Independence Party member John Binkowski.

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2nd District debate

Posted at 1:16 PM on October 4, 2006 by Bob Collins (3 Comments)

Coleen Rowley and John Kline held a debate on some cable TV access show in Eagan.

They wouldn't let Mark Zdechlik into the studio to take a picture (we try keeping him out of our studios too, but ... no luck.) so he snapped this one of the TV screen.

Here's the audio of the debate. I think "Z" is doing a story on this for All Things Considered but I'm too busy watching the Twins game to go to the daily story meeting to get that confirmed.

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For conspiracy theorists...

Posted at 1:30 PM on October 4, 2006 by Bob Collins (11 Comments)

Since it's that time of year.

Bradblog.com has a screen shot of Fox News labelling Mark Foley a Democrat. Hmmm....yeah...and that X over Dick Cheney's face was an accident, I hear.

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Legislative forum audio

Posted at 6:05 PM on October 4, 2006 by Bob Collins

Here's the audio of the legislative forum (courtesy of Laura McCallum) held last night in Minnetonka that Tom mentioned earlier.

The "you can't make it up" file - Volume I

Posted at 9:58 PM on October 4, 2006 by Bob Collins (1 Comments)

W.Va. State Sen. Randy White said Wednesday he would continue his campaign for a second term, despite the embarrassment of revealing photos of him aired on a Charleston television station.

The Webster County Democrat blamed a disgruntled former employee for stealing the photos from his computer. Some show him nude, while others show at least two men whose bodies were painted.

"There was nothing sexual about these pictures, and nothing sexual before, during or after they were taken," White said. "But it does look bad, and it is not easy to explain."

Oh, come on, senator, give it a try. You know, paint us a picture.

(from AP)

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