You're not dreaming it. It's raining.

Posted at 9:56 AM on September 23, 2006 by Bob Collins (4 Comments)

Mitch over at Shot in the Dark raises some interesting points regarding the bad week of public opinion for either (a) Mark Kennedy or (b) pollsters.... depending on whether you believe the pollsters.

Next week another round of polls comes out and I'm still curious about the dissecting of the polls to show they're wrong. Fair game, to be sure. But can someone -- anyone -- post the poll they feel is right? Or do they just not exist?

Even Rasmussen, in August, had Klobuchar at 50% and Kennedy below 40. And Klobuchar's lead is almost 20-percent on the issue of the economy; an issue that has been going back and forth with Iraq as the dominant issue for voters.

Weeks ago, Gallup had Klobuchar up by 10.

One of the closest polls in recent weeks is the one poll the Kennedy clan has spent countless hours decrying as inaccurate. Zogby has Klobuchar up by a little over 8 points. And that's the good news!

In July, Survey USA had Klobuchar up by about 5 points. But that's a pretty old poll now, especially since the others -- most of the others -- had similar figures then.

Mitch makes an interesting, if somewhat exaggerated conclusion:

So let's be honest, shall we? These polls - which have gotten saturation play in the Metro media this past few weeks - exist not to gauge public opinion, but to depress Republican fundraising and stymie Republican turnout.

With a close 6th District race and a close governor's race, I don't see the polls existing to depress turnout. If anything, the fact the polls show close races part way down the ticket would lead reasonable people, I suppose, to make the extra effort to help decide it.

And as for depressing fundraising, well, this looks like one of the most expensive Senate campaigns in this state's history and it sure doesn't look like raising money has been an issue.

No, the problem the Kennedy campaign is having right now isn't about money and it isn't about polls. It's about people. There's only about 9 percent of the people surveyed who haven't made up their minds yet. According to the polls, even if all them swung to Kennedy (and we know that's not going to happen, it never does)., he'd only pull closer. Those who are undecided now, are not anyone's base.

The thing is, though, these numbers haven't been changing. Or if they have changed, they've been changing in Klobuchar's favor.

Now as soon as I write this, I'll be called a liberal DFLer. So be it, I can't look outside on this rainy morning and tell you the sun is shining.

But the fact is: it's raining on the Kennedy campaign right now. And it's rapidly getting to the point where only something big can turn it around.

They better hope Klobuchar goes for a ride in a tank, because campaigning against a boogeyman who's out to get you (polls and media) is akin to lowering the lifeboats.

Comments (4)

Shouldn't you post a "prepared and paid for by Amy Klobuchar" on that?

Or perhaps "prepared at taxpayer expense"

But I thought nonprofits that take government money are not supposed to elect people at government expense?

Posted by realtime | September 23, 2006 6:07 PM

One cannot approach any task, realtime, without a strategy and one cannot have a strategy without an honest assessment of one's current position.

As I said, I'm willing to review any polls that show Kennedy doing well against Klobuchar, but so far nobody has given me one; preferring instead to dismantle the messenger.

I didn't conduct the polls, I just looked at all of them and I think -- based on those -- it's hard to come to a conclusion that Kennedy doesn't have an uphill fight on his hands.

What you're doing instead, though, is engaging in denial of that current position. Or maybe you know something that's escaped me. I sure would like to hear what it is because it would be valuable information.

I'm not saying Kennedy can't win; of course he can. But it's getting late, realtime, and if he starts running against the media and if his campaign wastes energy trying to put lipstick on a pig, he's going to lose.

What do you think the strategy of the Kennedy camp is the rest of the way. Let's discuss it.

Kennedy, is worse off in the polls now, than he was at the beginning of the year. Why? Is it because his message hasn't gotten out? Or because it has?

Kennedy's task is clear. He not only has to convince the undecided to vote for him in huge numbers, he also has to get people who've already decided to vote for Klobuchar to switch. Impossible? Of course not. Difficult? Yes.

There's still plenty of time and I wouldn't recommend pushing the panic button, but so far the strategy hasn't appeared to work. If you've got some evidence that it has, bring it on and let's take a look.

But you know what I'd do if I were running his campaign. I'd start putting the candidate out in front of the microphones instead of campaign managers, campaign flaks, and his brother. I'm beginning to wonder if part ot the current strategy is to keep the candidate under wraps, and if so... why?

BTW, the Klobuchar campaign would never ever write what I wrote. In many ways, the polls that Mitch thinks exist to depress turnout for Kennedy, actually could depress turnout for Klobuchar.

Posted by Bob Collins | September 23, 2006 6:30 PM

Must be pretty slow over there to be rehashing what Mitch Berg has to say. Or were you just curious what was happening in Mitch's life 20 years ago, which seems to be the main reason his blog exists these days. I guess better that than spewing his usual nonsense.

Posted by Dwight | September 25, 2006 7:12 AM

If you find yourself with something to say, maybe I'll quote you.

Like I said, lots of ego leading to the food fights between the bloggers. Slapstick is still funny; even after all these years.

Posted by Bob Collins | September 25, 2006 7:45 AM

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