Roll Call has a story today about the upstart polling firms moving in on the old liners. Unfortunately, I don't have a subsription to Roll Call, but I'd love to see the article (maybe that's a hint, maybe it's not), because a lot of old-time media are ignoring the upstart firms too." />
Posted at 8:26 AM on September 27, 2006
by Bob Collins
(13 Comments)
Roll Call has a story today about the upstart polling firms moving in on the old liners. Unfortunately, I don't have a subsription to Roll Call, but I'd love to see the article (maybe that's a hint, maybe it's not), because a lot of old-time media are ignoring the upstart firms too.
The daily issue also apparently has a piece with the GOP feeling good in the 6th District. In the absence of any other polling -- will someone in the media PLEASE pay attention to this race! -- other than the one that shows Michele Bachmann up by 9, I have to think at this point they're right.
Especially since Patty Wetterling did an uncharacteristically Wetterling thing and launched an attack ad this week. (Watch)
The ad proves that Democrats are just as good at pulling things out of context and presenting a distorted view of a candidate's position as Republicans are. The ad makes it sound as though Bachmann is proposing a new national sales tax on top of existing taxes. It even cites a Star Tribune article (do politicians read anything BUT the Star Tribune? Geez.) Bachmann has proposed the consumption tax but it's part of a bigger plan to eliminate the federal income tax and a bunch of other federal taxes.
If there's a debate to be had about taxes between these two candidates, both can do a better job about being honest concerning the others' position.
Given all the possible things you could scare voters about where Michele Bachmann is concerned, being a tax raiser seems way too much like a Hail Mary. Or maybe you've never seen VoteTracker. She's not exactly Mrs. tax-and-spend.
And I sure wish Mason Dixon would break out this poll by congressional district. I presume the 6th would be the exception to the numbers but if not, it practically charts Wetterling's strategy the rest of the way.
Wingman put up a good chunk of the Roll Call article here...
http://www.bachmannvwetterling.com/?p=483
Bob, I had the same initial reaction re: '23% more'... But on two seconds of reflection, one comes to see that the national sales tax would indeed mean 23% more sales tax on top of the existing state sales tax of 6.5%. So, in the 6th CD, the sales tax would disproportionately [and negatively] affect the vast majority of 6th CD residents and mean 23% more tax on all relevant purchases.
If State Senator Bachman wanted to protect folks from the snowball effect of a national sales tax, she would have introduced a bill in the State Senate to do one of two things: 1) a significant reduction in the state sales tax, triggered only by adoption of a national sales tax, or 2) broadened the sales tax to include most services, coupled with reducing the overall rate at least one full percentage point (to 5.5% or even lower.) Did she ever do either one?
I do hope you'll adjust your statement above to reflect the real impact Bachman's tax would have on the residents of the 6th.
YOu're not going to win a seat in Congress by trying to paint Michele Bachmann as a proponent of new taxes. You're just not. And I just have to question the sanity of whomever developed that strategy.
Agreed- but that's not the attack being made overall, as I read it. The attack is about Bachman as proponent of radical ideas that are not well thought-out in their consequences for her constituent families.
Tax-and-spender? No. Trying to govern by sound bite and not sound ideas? Yes.
If you wanted to portray Michele Bachmann as having "radical ideas," I just don't think a DOA tax plan is the way to go. I'm not saying there's validity -- or not validity -- to the notion, but if you were of that mind, you could go the Iraq-nukes route, you could go the religion route, you could try a "government intrusion" route...all of which could generously pull things out of context and say just about anything you want.
But taxes?
That tells me that Wetterling's camp has some internal polling that shows more strength for Bachmann in the 6th than folks let on, and that the only issue that could resonate was one that -- let's face it -- Bachmann already owns.
Bob--
Your profile of Bachmann on your Campaign '06 erroneously lists Michele Bachmann as a "tax litigation attorney" under occupation. This obviously came from Bachmann herself, who has spent the past decade spreading this embellishment to her resume.
Michele Bachmann worked as a tax collection lawyer for the IRS for a mere 5 years from 1988-93. That is the sum total of her "career" as an attorney. She hasn't worked as an attorney since 1993 and isn't even authorized to practice law in Minnesota. See for yourself here:
http://www.courts.state.mn.us/lprb/lawyersearchdetails.aspx?mars=0179863
The closest Bachmann has been to being called "counselor" since 1993 has been as a "sidewalk counselor" haranguing people outside family planning clinics.
Please correct your Bachmann bio.
The MPR Vote Tracker doesn't tell the entire story about Bachmann's extremist legislation because her wackiest bills didn't go to the Senate for a vote.
Remember Bachmann's Personal Rapid Transit legislation?
==============================
http://www.revisor.leg.state.mn.us/revisor/pages/search_status/status_detail.php?b=Senate&f=SF1574&ssn=0&y=2003
(Bill Name: SF1574 ) "Personal rapid transit systems local bonding authority"
Authors; Bachmann; Solon
==============================
MPR article quoting Bachmann promoting PRT:
http://news.minnesota.publicradio.org/features/2004/04/26_mccalluml_prt/
If you're doing a re-vamp of your Bachmann bio, you might want to take a look at the "Bachmann Quotes" section of this web page:
http://www.thebachmannrecord.com
The quotes are dated and sourced. She's a lot more radical and extremist than the press is letting on. I think that should be reflected in her bio, don't you?
Bob sez: Given all the possible things you could scare voters about where Michele Bachmann is concerned, being a tax raiser seems way too much like a Hail Mary. Or maybe you've never seen VoteTracker. She's not exactly Mrs. tax-and-spend.
Well Bob, maybe you haven't seen my property tax statement lately. You evidently have fallen for the Bachmann canard of "I cut taxes as a state senator." Bachmann will go to Washington and do to Minnesota exactly what she's done to local governments as a state senator: claim to lower taxes while dumping the cost of government on the next lowest level of government. In fact, in a recent debate, Bachmann said exactly that about federal reimbursement for special education. The feds are never going to pay their fair share, she said, so let's just forget about it. She proposes to end ALL federal support for education. So who do you think will pick up the tab then? State and local property taxpayers.
Since Pawlenty and Bachmann took office, property taxes in Washington County--Bachmann's district--have skyrocketed. And they're going to go up even faster next year thanks to the Republican smoke-and-mirrors used to wipe out the state's budget deficit. Plus, the local school district is going begging again for more money this year. Why? Because Michele cut school spending at the state level!
Wake up and smell the coffee, Bob. Michele Bachmann has already raised our taxes, and she will again. She's just not being honest about it.
You're using the Pogemiller defense. And while it may be true that pushing things down to the property tax level has overall increased your taxes, good luck trying to get that into a 30-second spot.
I'm also a resident of Washington County, by the way, and I also know one of the reasons my taxes have gone up, is because I voted for them to go up through school levies, and open space referenda. I'm not as stupid as you think I am.
You pointed out an area where Wetterling COULD have used an attack ad effectively -- Bachmann's position on education. She could've gone into the whole -- oh, heck, I forget the name of that group -- smorgasbord of things that actjually MIGHT get Republicans to vote for a Democrat: education.
But she didn't. She went with taxes.
Regardless of whether it's right or whether it's wrong....millions of dollars have at least bought enough of the voters' mindset that if you want to talk about raising taxes....it's not a badge you can pin on a Republican challenger in a TV ad.
Or maybe you could. But believe me, in the 5 weeks left, Patty Wetterling doesn't have enough money to be going with that strategy.
An attack is supposed to SCARE people. First of all, NOBODY in their right mind actually believes a proposal for a consumption tax is going to fly. Nobody. So get real...and scare 'em about something that actually might.
You've got 30 seconds -- 30 seconds -- to do it. You don't do it with the Larry Pogemiller strategy. Unless you're prepared to buy an hour of prime time and think the folks who vote for candidates on the strength of a Scandanavian last name are interested in sitting around long enough to digest it.
"The ad proves that Democrats are just as good at pulling things out of context and presenting a distorted view of a candidate's position as Republicans are."
ooo, you got the "even-handed result in political reporting" fever, man.
"The ad makes it sound as though Bachmann is proposing a new national sales tax on top of existing taxes."
No it doesn't. The ad makes NO claims about Bachmann wanting the "national sales tax on top of existing taxes." Where do you get THAT, out of this 30 second spot? YOU supplied that; the ad doesn't "make it sound" that way, the ad just talks about price hikes on specific items if Bachmann gets her consumption tax.
Stick to the script you're supposed be analyzing next time. Pay attention.
All the ad says is that the prices of certain items will go up if Bachmann gets her consumption tax. That's true, that's not "a distorted view of a candidate's position," that's what will happen if Bachmann gets her big consumption tax.
What are you criticizing, the fact that she didn't include the full context of Bachmann's tax promises about taxes in her thirty second ad? There's no distortion in this ad, it looks distorted to you because you've--oh, forget it.
Yes it does. Put down your candidate fever for a moment and look at it from a little more political science perspective and perhaps it will be clearer to you.
I recognize this is a difficult time for calm discussions of these things, but that's what Polinaut is for.
Oh, that answer was very helpful, Bob. Instead of rebutting any the points I made about how your analysis of the Wetterling ad was unfair and inaccurate, you send back a criticism of *me.*
The problem here, in your opinion, is that I've got "candidate fever." And I don't have a "political science perspective", like you. And, of course, since I pointed our reasons why your analysis of the Wetterling ad is wrong and unfair--that proves (to your mind at least) that I am not "discussing this thing calmly."
What arrogant, insulting nonsense to direct at a reader on behalf of MPR. But let's see--did you make any attempt at all to address my points, to rebutt the list of reasons I gave showing why the Wetterling ad does *not* distort Bachmann's position on the consumption tax?
"Yes, it does." That's it. That's your entire counter-argument, is it? The rest is just about me, my flaws as a thinker and individual.
"Yes, it does." Well who can argue with thinking like that?
By the way--I don't know what kind of "candidate fever" you saw in my comment--but I'm not a Wetterling supporter. I'm anti-Bachmann; it's not the same thing. Another example of your critique of something that simply isn't there.
“We’re in a state of crisis where our nation is literally ripping apart at the seams right now, and lawlessness is occurring from one ocean to the other. And we’re seeing the fulfillment of the Book of Judges here in our own time, where every man doing that which is right in his own eyes—in other words, anarchy.”
--Senator Michele Bachmann, appearing as guest on radio program “Prophetic Views Behind The News”, hosted by Jan Markell, KKMS 980-AM, March 6, 2004.
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