I don't know whether the Minnesota poll is right or wrong. It sure seems to be "out there" a bit but I'm not skilled enough to know why.
I do know this: poll science should be taught in public schools.
Look, I'm up for a good discussion on poll methodology and why a poll is or isn't accurate. I can usually learn a few things.
But if the Republcian Party of Minnesota doesn't retire the "The Minnesota Poll is wrong because it has failed to predict the final results accurately X number of times," I'm just going to scream.
OK, it's my own personal hell, but this sort of stuff is like getting those Internet messages from a friend, who had it forwarded to her from someone who forwarded it from someone else, who had it forwarded from someone else etc., all warning against freezing food in plastic containers because it'll release killer Dioxin. Gah!
The heading on the graph on page 2 on Minnesota Democrats Exposed leads one to ignore everything else.
Unresolved. Whether the party continues this line of reasoning because it doesn't understand polling science; or because it thinks it can convince others who don't understand polling science?
Poll methodology can certainly be questions, but you have to at least trot out a basic truth in the process if anyone's going to pay serious attention to the scholarship..
one of my thoughts about the MN poll is the fact that they started polling the day after the primary. Democrats were feeling pretty exuberant because we actually had a few challenging races, the Republicans really didn't, and wouldn't have the level of enthusiasm of the dflers.
The question is whether the Republicans will stay at mild apathy, or rev up for the actual election. My guess is they will rev. And then the final outcome will be much closer to the polling done by Kennedy's campaign, in which he's only losing by 10 points.
the other thing to look at is that the polling wrapped up on Friday, and the negative Klobuchar ad didn't hit the airwaves until at least saturday (maybe Sunday, I saw the first one on sunday). Hate them, or hate them a whole bunch, those stupid negative ads are still influential.
my 2 cents
not a bad explanation for anyone who is interested.
I left you a message. Give me a call.