Polinaut: September 29, 2006 Archive

How times change

Posted at 3:28 AM on September 29, 2006 by Bob Collins (7 Comments)

I commented below how odd it was that the GOP was sending out releases now on polls showing only an 8 point spread between Kennedy and Klobuchar.

Check out this part of the e-mail Pat Shortridge, the campaign manager for Kennedy , sent out to supporters last night.

Dear Kennedy Supporter,

Three new polls were released today continuing to show that the Minnesota Senate race will be one of the closest in the country.

Survey USA and MN GOP have the race at 8 points and WSJ/Zogby at 9. Make no mistake, this race is the number one pick-up opportunity for Republicans in the country. Mark has just begun to help voters understand the big differences between the candidates on the big issues facing our country...

Whoaaaa! Hold on here, pard'ner!

Zogby now is a credible poll? This from the campaignthat took great pains to make the point to me about what a terrible, terrible journalist I was (and presumably still am) for being so biased as to cite -- Zogby. (Here's the one that REALLY made 'em mad!)

And wasn't it GOP Chair Ron Carey who tried to cut Zogby off at the knees by noting...

"On Election Day in 2004, John Zogby confidently predicted that John Kerry would defeat President George W. Bush and get at least 311 votes in the Electoral College. In 2002, Zogby had Walter Mondale defeating Norm Coleman by six points in his final poll.

And now when the Kennedy folks wake up in the morning and ask "where's the love for our guy?" the answer is.... John Zogby?????

I suggested last January that polls that weren't budging indicated Kennedy may be in trouble, citing Zogby specifically. Boy, did the fur fly on that one! Proof that I was anti-Kennedy, they said. I got a call from the Kennedy spokesperson lecturing me on Zogby's methodology, and an opinion of my shortcomings as a "reporter" (please note: I am not a reporter).

Looking back, the only problem with the assessment (mine, not theirs) was....well...there was no problem with the assessment, actually.

Back then my pals -- and I mean that. I like those guys -- over at at Kennedy vs. the Machine gave me a good going over.

Remember this?

Two important points: (1) Kennedy vs. the Machine is NOT part of the Kennedy campaign. And (2) Gary Miller, who started KvM and is as good a blogger as exists, has not wavered in his criticism of Zogby's methodology. Unfortunately, he's also not writing much anymore.

[…] If Polinaut didn’t have a track record of hyping flawed polls, burying a certain county attorney’s debate ducks (imagine, for a minute, Kennedy had done likewise), largely ignoring Sen. Dayton’s ignominious distinction, calling into question the motives of this and other conservative bloggers, overlooking Sen. Johnson’s colossal ethical breach for a week, hyperventilating about imagined breaches of privacy, selective highlighting on Kennedy & Klobuchar fundraising sources, Collins would have some cred of his own. […]

Back to memory lane...

On April 6th -- no longer available for some reason, KvM said....

[…] Remember this column from Roll Call the next time Amy Klobuchar and Ford Bell tout their lead in an “interactive” Zogby poll. (All emphasis ours) […]

and in June we got, the now-lead guy at KvM, Andy Aplikowski said ...

But there is no mention of Klobuchar’s lobbying hypocrisy on Polinaut. Instead he runs a story how she is leading in a Zogby poll. And takes a preemptive shot at KvM in it too. That is selective editing, my friends. Others know it as bias.

at Residual Forces, there was this...

. Sorry, Zogby has been pretty well blown out of the water for credibility.

For the record, I absolutely do not believe this race is over. But the Kennedy campaign has made things difficult for themselves by squandering precious time making boogeymen out of people who say or write things they disagree with, instead of considering the possibility that not everyone who says something they don't want to hear is in the pocket of their opponent.

They are not alone. Not by a longshot. And not just Republicans. It is the cancerous hubris of all politics.

When confronted with distasteful information, it's far too difficult in the environment of a campaign organization for someone to muster the courage to ask, "what's if it's true?".

It's easier just to rally around punching the messenger.

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Speaking of Zogby

Posted at 8:28 AM on September 29, 2006 by Bob Collins

He's putting a poll in the field next week in the 6th District.

It's about time.

The pendulum swings

Posted at 9:04 AM on September 29, 2006 by Bob Collins (4 Comments)

Dems, did you think they were just going to give you the Senate.

Electoral vote predictor, now known as VoteFromAbroad.org has finally changed the tally.

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The Daily Digest: 9-29-06

Posted at 9:14 AM on September 29, 2006 by Tom Scheck (1 Comments)

Joe Mauer's 9th inning home run leads the digest today. Twins are tied for first place. Maybe there will be a sweep this weekend. Day 2 convention are stories are all over the place. There are so many angles to this story. It's going to keep Tim Nelson at the Pi Press busy for two years. He writes today about the quick action by the RNC to get the site.

One reason they may have moved so fast was GOP Senator Norm Coleman. The AP says it could boost his profile

But he says he won't run for higher office in '08.

RealClear Politics speculates that Republican Governor Tim Pawlenty could also be a possible Vice Presidential pick.

For the record, the press corps asked Pawlenty about the prospects of higher office and he said no thanks. I'm sure he's got other things on his mind like his reelection bid. Pawlenty started running an ad critical of DFLer Mike Hatch's spending policies. The AP's Brian Bakst has an analysis of the ad.

Ok, back to the convention. Planning is underway, says KARE-11. MPR and WCCO have stories wondering if the payoff is worth it.

The Fergus Falls Journal says the Republicans in their neck of the woods are excited.

The Washington Times has a column on the pick.

There was even a story on how a St. Paul hospital is getting ready.

Folks in Florida aren't happy that Tampa lost the bid. One story says the GOP heavyweights in Minnesota outworked the heavyweights in Florida.

They also speculate that a potential hurricane could have doomed their bid.

Don't they know that in Minnesota that "all the women are strong, all the men are good-looking, and all the children are above average?"

The Green Party's Papa John Kolstad, who's running for Attorney General, is mad he's not being invited to a MPR debate. Get your five percent and you'll get to go to all the debates next time around. Those are the rules. You can find them right here.

The Star Tribune has a story on the Independence Party.

The Republican Party wants a probe into a local county unit, says the Pi Press and the Star Tribune.

Governor Pawlenty will be in Grand Rapids today to talk Timber.

T.W. Budig has profiles on Pawlenty, Hatch and I-P candidate for governor Peter Hutchinson.

Mary Matalin was in town to raise money for Republican Senate candidate Mark Kennedy.

The EPA says it's thinking about helping out the ethanol industry.

Finally, the Marshall Independent writes about a poll conducted in their area.

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Dual missions

Posted at 9:37 AM on September 29, 2006 by Bob Collins (1 Comments)

KARE 11 has an interview with Mary Matalin and this seems to be the quote du jour.

“It’s not about where you are in the polls. It’s what happens at the polls on election day, and it’s not just a platitude.”

Well, actually, Mary, it is, and you know it.

It's true -- unquestionably so -- that in the end, what matters is what happens on Election Day. That's hardly great political insight and if Matalin is saying the polls don't matter, she's wrong. And she knows that too, because she makes her money advising campaigns before election day.

Polls may not be the determining factor of an election, but to suggest they don't matter at all is flat out wrong.Lord knows I've wasted a lot of brain cells noting that polls are not a predictor. But polls can tell you something -- they can tell you what the people think about your candidate or the other candidate and you can bet that every ad, every word, every speech you hear is vetted through the one process: how you're going to receive it.

You're not seeing a lot of the same ads you saw in 2004, you know, the ones with battle scenes from Iraq and grainy pictures of bin Laden. Why? Check the polls. It's no accident.

If you've been in Washington for six years, had amassed a pretty good warchest, started your campaign almost two years ago, have -- or should have -- tremendous name recognition and still are not moving in the polls, that's telling you something and woe unto the candidate who doesn't listen and adjust the campaign appropriately in the final weeks. But they know that. Every candidate knows that. That's why they're all doing internal polling.

Campaign managers often respond to polls by noting that they expect them to change once the candidate "gets his/her message out." And that may be true although it's the smart campaign that asks itself, "are the polls reflecting the fact the message isn't out? Or is it reflecting the fact it is?

There's no single answer to that for the half-dozen or so polled campaigns in Minnesota right now. Each one is different.

And each campaign will treat each differently. For example, let's take the Senate campaign. I don't know who's going to win the thing, for the most part I don't care. I will admit, however, than when Dayton announced he was resigning, I thought the seat was Mark Kennedy's for the asking. The race has become the pefect lab rat for political junkies to study the to and fro of campaigns.

For the most part, the Klobuchar campaign isn't going to be sending out releases touting how far "ahead" some polls say she is. Why? Because at this time of the year, polls can become the enemy for the frontrunner. They make supporters ease up on the gas. They make people stop throwing in money because they think it's not needed.

Conversely, polls that show a candidate trailing can be the best friend a trailing candidate has because they can energize a faithful core to work a little harder, and they can pry open a checkbook.

But it's a delicate balance for that candidate. You have to remind folks what the polls say, without injecting a sense of resignation into the discussion.

That's where Matalin is good. Really good.

There's political analysis. And there's rallying the troops. Be careful when the same person tries to do both at the same time.

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Ad Watch: DFL ad

Posted at 12:22 PM on September 29, 2006 by Bob Collins (22 Comments)

The DFL today is out with a new ad which tries to connect Tim Pawlenty with rising property taxes. See it here.

It's funny the subject should come up, because we touched on it in the comments section of Polinaut in the item about the Wetterling ad against Bachmann. I indicated that Republicans have been so good at hammering the taxes issue, that it'll take a lot of money and a lot of time to pin the "higher taxes" label on them again.

Lord knows Sen. Pogemiller has tried for a few years now, without a ton of success. Why? Because you have to explain the Local Government Aid formula. In 30 seconds or in a sound bite? Good luck.

The theory goes that Tim Pawlenty didn't really cut taxes, he just pushed the taxes down to the local level by cutting state aid and then tried to blame the local leaders for being spending happy instead of cutting the taxes further.

It's an argument with some merit. Just ask local officials.

They contend their budgets were already too tight and they've chopped to the bone. The Pawlenty campaign says they haven't. In fact, they're touting a property tax cap in some of their current commercials.
It's a classic Democrat vs. Republican argument.

And potentially, a winning argument in a campaign. Some people think that's why Republicans in the Legislature pushed for a property tax rebate in the last session, with the checks coming close to election time.

October 1, I believe is when the half-year property tax bills are due (at least that's what my checking account says), so it's probably no surprise the ad is being released around October 1.

Bottom line. Not all property taxes rose because of the cuts in local government aid. But many did. Some cities don't get LGA.

And cuts in LGA have been going on since before Pawlenty even took office. The shift came partly as a result of a revamping of tax policy which took some of the burden off commercial taxpayers and put it on homeowners. Another came from the decision by the state to fund education, and take it off the property tax rolls. But where did that money come from? Ventura proposed it come from an expansion of the sales tax. But the Legislature, in an election year, didn't bite. It took it from LGA.

And then, when it came time to cutting taxes, the state also cut the amount of scheduled funding for local schools.

Want to learn more. Here's a blast from the past from Midday on the subject.

And we've got a ton of information on LGA here.

But none of it can be toldin 30 seconds.

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Blodgett and Hume join Klobuchar campaign

Posted at 3:00 PM on September 29, 2006 by Tom Scheck (1 Comments)

Here's the release:

KLOBUCHAR GAINS KEY STAFF FOR FINAL STRETCH

As U.S. Senate candidate and County Attorney Amy Klobuchar made the final stop on her tour to every one of Minnesota's 87 counties, her campaign announced two major additions to its core campaign staff. Gearing up for the final stretch, the campaign will gain Jeff Blodgett, former Campaign Manager for Senator Paul Wellstone, and Bob Hume, currently Communications Director for Saint Paul Mayor Chris Coleman.

"Jeff Blodgett has a history of leading massive grassroots campaigns, unmatched political experience and a deep commitment to our state," said Klobuchar Campaign Manager, Ben Goldfarb. "Bob Hume brings extensive political communications experience with the perspective of a lifelong Minnesotan. We are thrilled that Blodgett and Hume are joining our team, they will fuel our momentum heading into October and onto Election Day."

Jeff Blodgett, the former Campaign Manager for U.S. Senator Paul Wellstone, will serve as a senior advisor. Blodgett will be taking a leave from Wellstone Action, where he currently serves as Executive Director. He will join the campaign next week. Bob Hume, who is on leave from his position as Communications Director in Saint Paul Mayor Chris Coleman's office, will join the Klobuchar Campaign as Communications Director.

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Klobuchar says she would have voted against terror bill

Posted at 5:05 PM on September 29, 2006 by Tom Scheck (1 Comments)

Democrat Amy Klobuchar says she supports giving the nation all of the tools it needs to fight terrorism but thinks the measure which passed both the house and the senate is unconstitutional. The bill would create military commissions to prosecute terrorism suspects. It would also forbid the worst types of abuses of detainees but would give the president leeway to decide which other interrogation techniques are allowed. Klobuchar says Republicans pushed the bill through so they could campaign on something before the midterm elections.

"We have to make sure that we are catching these terrorists. I think we all agree on that and that we're prosecuting them and we're punishing them. That being said I believe we need to put the long term interests in winning the war on terror in front of the short term political gain."

Klobuchar is running for Minnesota's open U.S. Senate seat. Her Republican opponent, Mark Kennedy, says the bill is critical to the nation's anti-terror fight. He voted for the House bill this week.

By the way, Klobuchar will be on MPR's Midmorning program on Monday at 10AM. Independence Party candidate Robert Fitzgerald will be on Midmorning on Thursday. Kennedy is scheduled to be on the program on Friday.

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