Polinaut: September 25, 2006 Archive

Another Monday, another poll

Posted at 9:03 AM on September 25, 2006 by Bob Collins

Well, there it is, the poll data and methodology.

One thing -- of many -- that strike me is that Klobuchar has better support from her party's voters than Kennedy does from his (88% vs. 79%). That could change, but 7-percent of Republican voters say they're undecided; the same percentage as the number of DFLers who say they're undecided. Curiously, 13-percent of Independents say they're undecided.

If you're Kennedy, what field do you till? He's more competitive outstate than he is in the metro area, but are there enough votes outstate to compensate. And if the metro area includes the suburbs -- and I believe it does -- than a 24% spread is significant.

Now, keep in mind this poll was conducted before the "ad gate" thing

It's pretty clear that the election is hinging on Iraq. And given that 21% say Iraq is the number one issue, and given the numbers that Klobuchar turns in here, there's almost no wriggle room for Kennedy on the dominant issue that can change the race.

He has to hope that something changes in Iraq between now and Election Day that will make voters come to his side or he's got to figure out how to get taxes & government spending to be a bigger player in this election.

He's also got a gender gap. His worst numbers come from women. And there's very few undecideds at this point in the campaign.

It may be getting to the point where the GOP has to hope the DFL figures the race is over, and a lot of those votes stay home on Election Day.

There's not a lot of good news in this poll for the congressman.

The Daily Digest: 9-25-06

Posted at 10:40 AM on September 25, 2006 by Tom Scheck

Another poll says DFLer Amy Klobuchar leads Mark Kennedy by double digits in Minnesota's senate race. MPR and the Pi Press have stories. Rachel Stassen-Berger says the race isn't over. MPR focuses on Kennedy's problems attracting independents in this particular poll.

The St. Cloud Times has a profile on Kennedy and says he's loyal to the GOP.

Stassen-Berger, with the Pi-Press, has profiles on Kennedy and Klobuchar in Sunday's paper. Kennedy earned the nickname "beets." Klobuchar says her job ain't exactly like "Law and Order."

GOP Wingman reports that Mary Matalin will hold a fundraiser for Kennedy on Thursday.

Bill Clinton talks up Klobuchar in this story.

The Star Tribune takes a look at the consultants behind the senate candidates after last week's firing of Tara McGuinness.

A small business PAC endorses Kennedy.

Kennedy and the other GOP candidates better check those terror talking points after this weekend's New York Times article.

The Rothenberg Political Report moves Minnesota's Senate race from narrow advantage to clear advantage. He also moves the race for governor from GOP narrow advantage to toss-up.

Brian Bakst, with the Associated Press, takes a look at the tax and spending plans that the candidates for governor are proposing.

There's also an item on what the candidates for governor think.

Pawlenty promises better times ahead. Perhaps the next generation of a "chicken in every pot"?

Don Davis, with Forum Communications, says rural America is the battleground this election.

Perhaps that's why Pawlenty and Hatch are criss-crossing the state. Hatch talks wood and brings the lumber to Pawlenty in Bemidji.

The Marshall Independent writes about Pawlenty.

The Mankato Free Press links to the editorial board's interview with Pawlenty. Now we know what goes on in those meetings.

The Star Tribune's Dane Smith takes a look at the state of our state.

The 6th District candidates debate on Almanac.

The NRCC keeps up its attack on Wetterling. This time it's on mutual funds (this must be a trend since Kennedy is bringing up Klobuchar's mutual funds in the senate race). Here's the problem, Bachmann has mutual funds too.

John Edwards makes the rounds on Saturday including a campaign appearance with Wetterling.

The Los Angeles Times mentions the 6th district contest in a story on microtargeting:

In the hottest congressional race in Minnesota, where the DNC and the Ickes group have developed micro-targeting capabilities, Democratic candidate Patty Wetterling has not yet begun using the technology but expects to start soon.

The campaign manager for Republican Michele Bachmann says the GOP system has proved to be "a critical asset." Using Voter Vault's ability to track voter preferences on hot issues, Bachmann's campaign even identified households where one family member opposed abortion and the others did not. The campaign tailored different messages to different members of those households.

The Detroit Free Press also writes about micro-targeting. Better buy those magazines off the rack if you don't want the parties knowing what you read

The Washington Post has a story saying the fortunes may be getting better for the GOP. Both parties are sensing tight races

Perhaps the GOP is getting ready for an October surprise. The bloggers are going crazy about this rumor.

Time magazine says the netroots have hit their limits and can't sway elections

Finally, an editor in Grand Marais is a bit jaded this election season. It looks like he's really doing his public service by bashing all of the candidates. It also isn't good if you're the editor for a newspaper but admit that you don't read through an entire press release. Journalism 101 says that comes with the job, pal.

The League of Conservation Voters endorses Ramstad and Wetterling

Posted at 11:30 AM on September 25, 2006 by Tom Scheck

Here's what LCV said about GOP Congressman Jim Ramstad, who represents Minnesota's Third Congressional District:

“During his tenure in Congress, Rep. Ramstad has supported common sense solutions to America’s energy challenges, such as requiring that new cars go further on a gallon of gas. He understands that it is imperative that America transitions to a new energy economy based on clean renewable energy technologies. Rep. Ramstad has been a credit to Minnesota’s 3rd District and LCV is proud to endorse Rep. Ramstad for re-election,”

And here's what they said about DFLer Patty Wetterling who is running for Congress in Minnesota's Sixth District:

Patty Wetterling understands that by investing in clean energy technologies, we are investing in our future public health and economy. We know Patty Wetterling will be a true leader in Congress for the people of Minnesota’s 6th District.”

In addition to her strong support for investing in renewable energy, Ms. Wetterling is also a proponent of investing in public transportation projects. In Congress, she will support public transportation measures and will work to extend Minnesota’s Northstar Commuter Rail line from Minneapolis to St. Cloud.

Republican Michele Bachmann and Independence Party member John Binkowski are running against Wetterling. Here's a link to the other endorsements by the LCV.

Cavlan's brigade

Posted at 1:51 PM on September 25, 2006 by Bob Collins (9 Comments)

(The following was sent to me by David Zingler, who writes for the Bleacher Bums blog at MPR, another blog I (and he) helped start last year. He still writes for it; I don't)

It’s 3pm on Thursday, September 21 and I’m sitting in Ms. Harder’s room on the third floor of Patrick Henry High School in North Minneapolis. State Representative Keith Ellison is two rows over, picking at his finger nails, fidgeting. Businesswoman and former TV news reporter Tammy Lee is sitting across the room, calmly running through her mental notes.

The three of us are sitting in cramped desks as students file in, most of which are here to pick up some extra credit points. A few minutes later the room is full and Alan Fine, an author and businessman has arrived.

Ellison, Lee and Fine, of course, are the Democratic, Independent and Republican nominees for Martin Sabo’s vacated seat in Minnesota’s 5th Congressional District. The trio is at the high school for a “Political Forum on Education/Students' issues.”

If the event was a fashion contest, Ellison would place a distant third. Fine and Lee are immaculately dressed in formal, business-like attire while Ellison dons a greenish, tweed sport coat and well-worn, brown shoes.

The highlight of the intro period came after Fine asked the students “Do any of you have a dream?” When one youngster said that he wanted “to be in the NBA”, the Republican nominee mistook the “N” for “M” and replied, “Oh, you want to be a businessman.”

About 10-15 minutes into the festivities, Michael Cavlan, the Green Party nominee for Mark Dayton’s Senate seat, ambles in. A registered nurse, Cavlan does not look nor act like a political candidate. Disheveled in appearance and lacking composure, he warns the students about the evils of military recruiters and calls for the impeachment of George W. Bush.

Cavlan’s radical views did attract the attention of the students however, and they pepper him with inquiries during the Q&A period. That unfortunately, means less face time for Ellison, Lee and Fine. The aggressive Ellison is quick to jump in first when students do not address a question directly to Cavlan.

It doesn’t take long to see why Ellison, despite his controversial past, had the support needed to bring home the Democratic nomination. A dynamic speaker, his personality casts a large shadow that Lee and Fine have a hard time escaping.

Lee is composed and appears very capable, but lacks the force to counteract Ellison’s charisma. Fine, while intelligent and articulate, seems out of his element and has trouble connecting with the students.

As the proceedings wrap up a female, African-American faculty member chimes in with a stern scolding of Fine for his criticism of Ellison’s ties with the Nation of Islam. Ellison tries to jump in first, but Fine eventually wins out and defends his earlier comment by labeling the organization a “hate group” and compares its leader Louis Farrakhan to David Duke.

The Democrat stood arms crossed, glaring at Fine as he wrapped up his comments. Then, at the urging of the previously identified faculty member, Ellison took the high road, and retorted, “Although he hasn’t asked me, I forgive Mr. Fine (for his comments).”

With the tension receding, class was adjourned. As Ms. Harder passes out bus tokens to the students, Ellison and Fine exchange a limp handshake. Fine and Lee quickly headed for the door and Ellison lingers in the classroom, chatting with some students for a few moments before exiting. Cavlan meanwhile stays put, he is surrounded by students and clearly basking in the attention.

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Ah, the good 'ol days

Posted at 1:59 PM on September 25, 2006 by Tom Scheck

The Associated Press says Jesse Ventura is back on the campaign trail. He's out stumping for Kinky Friedman, who's running for governor in Texas. The best part is that Ventura told reporters that they are asking the wrong questions:

Ventura said Texas news reporters should be focusing on issues important to the public, such as the state's partially secret contract with a transportation company over the development of new toll highways.

"To me, now there's an issue that affects all Texans. And the media needs to jump on those type of issues, not these nonsense issues, these character assassinations that they try to do on us," Ventura said.

NRSC keeps up attack of Klobuchar over blogger incident

Posted at 3:05 PM on September 25, 2006 by Tom Scheck (8 Comments)

The legal counsel for the National Republican Senatorial Committee just held a conference call discussing last week's blogger incident. William McGinley says they're sending a letter to Democrat Amy Klobuchar's campaign asking several questions about last week's incident (if you don't know by now- go back to step one here). McGinley is requesting specific information from Klobuchar's campaign on the controversy. Specifically:

1) The timeline of events from the time Tara McGuinness (the aide who was asked to resign after watching the ad) was contacted by local blogger Noah Kunin to the time of public disclosure.

2) How the information from the ad was used by the Klobuchar campaign.

3) Did anyone else inside or outside the Klobuchar campaign access the secure password protected website concerning any other Republican Senate candidates or committees.

McGinley wouldn't divulge what the next step would be if Klobuchar's campaign doesn't give them the information they want. He says he takes Klobuchar campaign's protestations of innocence at face value but still wants answers to his questions. The Klobuchar campaign has declined comment on some of these questions because they say the issue is being investigated by the FBI.

So here are the big questions (sorry, Eric Black): Is the NRSC really worried about this incident or do they see a political opportunity to keep the story alive another day?

Make no mistake about it, it's a serious issue but Klobuchar campaign treated it as such. If this story has legs and if voters will punish Klobuchar for this are the remaining questions.

This isn't the only blogger controversy plaguing political campaigns. Someone actually put a blog scandal guide online. Guess who makes an online post on one of the sites? Noah Kunin, yes that Noah Kunin. He basically says thanks for putting the information out there.

Kennedy is out with a new ad that focuses on taxes. He doesn't mention Klobuchar by name in the ad but uses the "straw man" argument. He says "some people think we need to spend more money. Raise taxes. Raise income taxes, social security taxes, gas taxes, death taxes..."

Interesting ad note...

I talked to nine different people who took part in the MPR/St. Paul Pioneer Press poll for comments on the Senate race. Three of them mentioned (unprompted) how they didn't like Kennedy's criticism of Klobuchar in this ad. This isn't a scientific sample (that's why we do polls) but it struck me that respondents felt that strongly about this one particular ad. It makes me wonder if there's a negative ad backlash going on across the nation. NPR had a story this morning saying a negative ad is causing a backlash in Vermont's Senate race.

Klobuchar's campaign is also using Kennedy's ad to raise money. Klobuchar campaign manager Ben Goldfarb sent a fundraising letter to supporters detailing the ad:

Given what we know about Mark Kennedy, it should be no surprise that he has wholeheartedly adopted such Washington beltway-style tactics. Kennedy is pushing these intensely negative ads to try to distract Minnesotans from his own record in Congress of putting the wishes of George Bush, the Republican leadership and Washington's most powerful special interests ahead of the people of Minnesota.

The bottom line is that Mark Kennedy knows he can't run on his record so he is doing what he always does -- launching fiercely negative slash and burn personal attacks. When faced with the insurmountable obstacle of people who have no interest in sending another Bush yes-man to Washington, Kennedy simply follows the DC-insider playbook and attacks to distract.

Goldfarb then asks the reader for money to counter the ad. Klobuchar is clearly trying to move away from the blogger controversy and get the focus back on the issues. She is scheduled to discuss the donut hole in Medicare Part D on Tuesday.

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What did she ever do to you?

Posted at 4:24 PM on September 25, 2006 by Bob Collins (2 Comments)

NPR's David Welna (a Minnesota native, I believe) looks at how President Bush is dodging the former Florida secretary of state.

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A political haiku

Posted at 4:40 PM on September 25, 2006 by Tom Scheck

Martiga Lohn, with the Associated Press, sent along this haiku. She went to a haiku party over the weekend (who knew they had such things?) and read this little gem:

Cold rain, attack ads,
wood fires, yard signs, push polls: It's
election season

Kennedy ramps up criticism of Klobuchar in latest ad

Posted at 5:11 PM on September 25, 2006 by Tom Scheck (10 Comments)

Mark Kennedy has a new ad out that goes after Amy Klobuchar.

It starts out much like the other ad with Klobuchar saying "The best way to look at someone to see if they're going to do good work for you is to see what they've done in the past.." and then plays ominous music. This text comes up with ominous music and Klobuchar's "see what they've done in the past" on a loop:

"Amy Klobuchar promised to crack down on drug dealers...
...But 52% of first degree drug felons were given lighter sentences."

"Klobuchar promised to keep gun criminals off of our streets...
...Then she kept handing out plea bargains."

"Klobuchar promised to be tough on repeat offenders...
...but career criminals continued to get plea bargains."

The video ends with Klobuchar saying "see what they've done in the past" and the text "Amy Klobuchar -- Broken Promises." I couldn't read the citations under each entry because the video on Kennedy's website is too small. What do you think?

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