Capitol View: September 23, 2006 Archive

You're not dreaming it. It's raining.

Posted at 9:56 AM on September 23, 2006 by Bob Collins (4 Comments)

Mitch over at Shot in the Dark raises some interesting points regarding the bad week of public opinion for either (a) Mark Kennedy or (b) pollsters.... depending on whether you believe the pollsters.

Next week another round of polls comes out and I'm still curious about the dissecting of the polls to show they're wrong. Fair game, to be sure. But can someone -- anyone -- post the poll they feel is right? Or do they just not exist?

Even Rasmussen, in August, had Klobuchar at 50% and Kennedy below 40. And Klobuchar's lead is almost 20-percent on the issue of the economy; an issue that has been going back and forth with Iraq as the dominant issue for voters.

Weeks ago, Gallup had Klobuchar up by 10.

One of the closest polls in recent weeks is the one poll the Kennedy clan has spent countless hours decrying as inaccurate. Zogby has Klobuchar up by a little over 8 points. And that's the good news!

In July, Survey USA had Klobuchar up by about 5 points. But that's a pretty old poll now, especially since the others -- most of the others -- had similar figures then.

Mitch makes an interesting, if somewhat exaggerated conclusion:

So let's be honest, shall we? These polls - which have gotten saturation play in the Metro media this past few weeks - exist not to gauge public opinion, but to depress Republican fundraising and stymie Republican turnout.

With a close 6th District race and a close governor's race, I don't see the polls existing to depress turnout. If anything, the fact the polls show close races part way down the ticket would lead reasonable people, I suppose, to make the extra effort to help decide it.

And as for depressing fundraising, well, this looks like one of the most expensive Senate campaigns in this state's history and it sure doesn't look like raising money has been an issue.

No, the problem the Kennedy campaign is having right now isn't about money and it isn't about polls. It's about people. There's only about 9 percent of the people surveyed who haven't made up their minds yet. According to the polls, even if all them swung to Kennedy (and we know that's not going to happen, it never does)., he'd only pull closer. Those who are undecided now, are not anyone's base.

The thing is, though, these numbers haven't been changing. Or if they have changed, they've been changing in Klobuchar's favor.

Now as soon as I write this, I'll be called a liberal DFLer. So be it, I can't look outside on this rainy morning and tell you the sun is shining.

But the fact is: it's raining on the Kennedy campaign right now. And it's rapidly getting to the point where only something big can turn it around.

They better hope Klobuchar goes for a ride in a tank, because campaigning against a boogeyman who's out to get you (polls and media) is akin to lowering the lifeboats.

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Edwards in town

Posted at 6:55 PM on September 23, 2006 by Bob Collins

John Edwards made a couple of stops in Minnesota on Saturday. Story here.

I guess all the candidates behind him got the memo on wearing red today.

It could be worse. It could be Kentucky

Posted at 7:05 PM on September 23, 2006 by Bob Collins (2 Comments)

There's been a series of interesting races this fall in Kentucky. And one took an interesting turn this week, when a campaign commercial was exposed as being just a tad... ummm.. fake.

Look, this is the type of stuff you absolutely cannot get away with, what with the power bloggers have in this election. When are the high-priced consultants going to get that point?

Here's the deal: Rep. Geoff Davis is running in the Kentucky 4th (The fightin' 4th, Colbert would say). And he ran ads with Democrats saying they'll vote for the Republican, instead of the Democrat.

The ad featuring "democrat" attorney David Wallace is on YouTube. The bloggers sniffed it out and found out that the Democratic attorney, David Wallace, is actually Davis (the candidate)'s personal attorney, and also represents a bank that loaned the candidate $150,000 years ago, money that reportedly has never been paid back.

It's a heck of a race and the polls have it a dead heat. One paper says more than $10 million will be spent on a House race by Election Day.

Related to this race is role of the economy in the race. As Election Day nears, both major parties seem to have their success (or failure) hinged on which issues is the issue that will decide the election. Democrats are hoping that "Mortgage moms" make the economy #1. Republicans are hoping terrorism will be the dominant issue.

We'll see. But the strategies are becoming more clear.

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