Sabato moves line on MN Senate race, says race for governor "leans GOP"

Posted at 10:26 AM on August 3, 2006 by Tom Scheck

Larry Sabato, with the Center for Responsive Politics at the University of Virginia, says he's moving the line on the race between DFLer Amy Klobuchar and Republican Mark Kennedy to "leans Democrat." Here are his comments in his "crystal ball" update on the race:

The Crystal Ball is always wary of the first poll showing dramatic change in a race, but when such change becomes a pattern of a series of surveys, we can't help but take notice. And in about the last month, we have noticed virtually every survey pegs Democratic candidates in crucial statewide races with better chances of winning than previously observed. Although we still don't buy, for example, that Democratic attorney Amy Klobuchar is clobbering GOP Congressman Mark Kennedy in Minnesota's Senate race 50 percent to 31 percent as the Minnesota Star Tribune would have us believe, we are beginning to take every poll we receive along this trend line with a smaller and smaller grain of salt, given their abundance.

He goes into greater detail on his website. Here's what he says there:

It is impossible not to pay attention to the polls showing Amy Klobuchar ahead; she is not ahead as much as a recent Minneapolis Star Tribune poll has indicated (19 percentage points). But, the Democratic breeze in Minnesota is becoming stronger. Unless things improve substantially for Pres. Bush and conditions on the ground in Iraq also improve, it is difficult to see how Congressman Mark Kennedy is going to beat Klobuchar in this contest. For now, we list it as Leans Democratis, recognizing that Kennedy may have some aces up his sleeve, though we are hard-pressed to identify them.

Sabato also weighs in on the race for governor. He says it leans Republican but:

The Crystal Ball is watching the Minnesota governor's race carefully. In another, more Republican year Governor Tim Pawlenty would be in good shape, and we continue to list him as a slight favorite. But, our sources in Minnesota stress to us that people appear to be in a mood to vote Democratic in the Land of 10,000 Lakes. As a result, Attorney General Mike Hatch will be a formidable opponent for Pawlenty.

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