Capitol View: August 28, 2006 Archive

Pawlenty ad marks unofficial start of campaign

Posted at 7:27 AM on August 28, 2006 by Mike Mulcahy

The old adage in politics is the campaign doesn't really start until Labor Day. Bob Collins has found quite a bit of truth in that, at least as reflected by traffic on the campaign section of MPR's Web site.

Gov. Tim Pawlenty starts running his first TV ad today, and it sure feels like the start of the campaign for the general public.

No sooner did Pawlenty's campaign announce the ad yesterday than the Mike Hatch campaign pounced with a reaction. For several weeks the state GOP has been calling Hatch an angry man and trying to play up his attack-dog nature. But it's clear from the response yesterday Hatch is going to let running mate Judi Dutcher play the role of campaign attacker.

Here's just a sample of what she told MPR:

"The fact of the matter is that the governor has given Minnesota a 50 percent solution to many issues. College tuition went up 50 percent under his tenure. Health premiums went up 50 percent, and property taxes in a lot of counties went up by 50 percent."

No word on when we'll see the first Hatch TV ads. Or on who will play the "truth squad" role on Pawlenty's side.

Klobuchar and Hatch lead in latest Zogby poll

Posted at 8:38 AM on August 28, 2006 by Tom Scheck

The Wall Street Journal's Zogby poll has DFL endorsed Mike Hatch leading Republican Governor Pawlenty in the race for governor. Hatch is polling at 43.1%. Pawlenty is at 40.6%. The poll says Peter Hutchinson, with the Independence Party, is polling in the single digits. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.9% so this race is really tight.

DFL endorsed Amy Klobuchar continues her lead over Republican Mark Kennedy in the race for Senate. Klobuchar is polling at 49.9%. Kennedy is polling at 42.3%. The margin of error is 3.9%.

You can find the results on the Wall Street Journal's home page (subscription required) here:

http://online.wsj.com/home/us

Campaign money

Posted at 10:02 AM on August 28, 2006 by Mike Mulcahy

Today is a deadline for state campaigns and caucuses to report their fundraising activity. We'll post these totals throughout the day as we get them.

Gov. Tim Pawlenty's campaign reports that between Jan. 1 and Aug. 21 Pawlenty raised $2,034,085 and ended the period with $2,027,650 on hand. The governor's campaign says it has raised a total of $3,794,152 for the election cycle.

The Daily Digest: 8-28-06

Posted at 10:54 AM on August 28, 2006 by Tom Scheck

The Governor's race leads the digest today.

As reported earlier, the Wall Street Journal's Zogby Poll (subscription required) says DFL endorsed Mike Hatch is leading Republican Governor Tim Pawlenty in the race for governor. Hatch is polling at 43.1%. Pawlenty is at 40.6%. The poll says Peter Hutchinson, with the Independence Party, is polling in the single digits. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.9% so this race is really tight.

Candidates for state office are also required to file their campaign finance reports today. Pawlenty's campaign says they have $2 million in the bank. Pawlenty raised $3.7 million during this election cycle. Hatch is also expected to report a large campaign war chest since he's been running a lean campaign so far.

There have also been reports that the candidates for governor will appear in several debates in mid September. As you already know, Pawlenty and Hatch declined to attend the MPR debate at the MN State Fair. The Minnesota Chamber of Commerce says the candidates will appear at the chamber debate on September 14th.

A group called Envision Minnesota also says the candidates will debate in St. Cloud on September 16th.

Pawlenty's 2002 rival, Independence Party member Tim Penney, writes that Pawlenty should attend the debates. Penny was also a DFLer when he served in Congress.

Pawlenty's campaign also hit the tv airwaves with their first ad. You can watch the ad on their website.

The Wall Street Journal (subscription required) also reports that candidates are looking to spend advertising money on cable:

Though most political ad dollars traditionally are spent after Labor Day, tight primaries and early spending on House, Senate and gubernatorial races have pushed local TV-ad spending above $311 million as of mid-August, up 45% from the same point in 2004 and more than three times as much as in 2002, according to Campaign Media Analysis Group, a division of TNS Media Intelligence, which tracks political ad spending. All political ad buys by mid-year, including issue ads, ballot initiatives and other issues, have pushed spending above $700 million nationally, the firm says.

The race for Minnesota's open senate seat will also heat up this week. Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist (R-TN) will campaign with Republican Congressman Mark Kennedy at the Minnesota State Fair on Tuesday.

Kennedy also attended the rededication ceremony of a war memorial in Rochester. Former GOP presidential candidate Bob Dole spoke at the event.

The Star Tribune's Pat Lopez says the Hennepin County Attorney's Office is being inundated with data practices requests from the National Republican Senatorial Campaign Committee.

The Star Tribune also has a story on political art at the fair and how politicians are working to stand out in a sea of humanity at the "great Minnesota get together."

The Washington Post takes a look at the abortion debate in South Dakota and has another story saying Democrats are split on the war.

The blog, centrisity, is reporting that the DFL candidates for attorney general will debate on WCCO after the Twins game.

DFLer Tim Walz says the Rochester Chamber of Commerce will host a 1st District debate on September 11th at 12:15. Walz is running against GOP Congressman Gil Gutknecht.

And finally, the Denver Post is reporting that Denver's efforts to win the 2008 DNC Convention hit a snag. The paper reports that the region doesn't have a union hotel.

Here, have a heapin' helpin' of goo

Posted at 11:12 AM on August 28, 2006 by Bob Collins (6 Comments)

Whenever I tell people that I occasionally deliver newspapers in the early morning (or is 2 a.m. late night?), they look at me funny. I guess they don't think it's a job worthy of my obvious star status and endangers the amount of beauty I can reflect on the world by sleeping regularly. But, alas, my parents gave me a work ethic, I don't sleep all that well anyway, and there is no better time to be out walking than a few hours before sunrise. I don't deliver the things regulary anymore -- just a week here or there in the summer. But for 10 years, I got up and schlepped papers for 2 hours a day, 7 days a week to raise the cash to embark on the great airplane building project.

It gives you a chance to listen to all the overnight radio and get up close, frankly, to the way people live. You can learn a lot about people this way. You can see who's got what sticker on the car, who's got too much junk in the garage when they forget to close the door (or not. Marion Gaborik had absolutely nothing but a sportscar in a three-car garage). You can figure out who's got kids and what age they are, what sports they're into at school and, yes, what their politics is. You can, in short, get a pretty good demographic breakdown of a household.

It's not scientific, of course, but even political science isn't really science. It's one gigantic batch of guesswork goo served up as knowledge to people who don't often enough question it. I had a hunch Jesse Ventura was going to win just by listening to Al Malmberg's overnight callers. Overnight radio callers are a little better indication of what's going on out there because they're not as heavily screened as shows during the day. I don't listen too much to Al anymore because he's gone a bit overboard on the stir-the-pot-by-saying-stuff-that's-outrageous mentality that afflicts talk radio so. So the value of his show to my research this year is questionable.

But lawn signs? Ah, that's another thing. In the last few weeks, the lawn signs have started springing up in Woodbury. So I've picked up a bunch of different routes on the newspaper run in the last few weeks to get a better look. Now, it's silly of me to predict anything based on lawn signs, so I won't. But it's good anecodtal evidence -- I'm sorry, I meant political science -- of how things are going.

Klobuchar? Kennedy? Wetterling? Bachmann? In my time off, I've enjoyed ignoring them all and intend to continue doing so until I'm back fulltime at MPR next week. But the Legislature, to me, is the best political story out there that nobody -- and I mean nobody -- covers it because it's too big to do it any justice. But the personalities out there are terrific and, let's face it, what happens at the Legislature is going to affect you faster than anything those politicians who have car doors opened for them in Washington do.

That's why I've taken an interest in the District 56B legislative race between incumbent Karen Klinzing (campaign site) and Woodbury High School teacher Marsha Swails. Disclaimer time: my wife is a Swails volunteer, which is why I'm sticking to the anecodtal here. I keep my head down and don't tell my wife what to think or who to vote for, especially since I can't be counted on to vote at all, and my view on public education may change now that my kids have graduated; don't tell her that, however. Like I said: head down.

A couple of weeks ago the Swails organization put its lawn signs out and I was struck by their abundance. Moreover, I was struck by their abunchance in areas that I considered solid Republican territory as I tossed the newspapers on the front porches of what is, I think it's safe to say, Republican turf. Over the weekend, however, the Klinzing organization started deployintg their signs and it's clear they're not giving an inch. I would guess I'll have a better handle on who's got the edge in lawn signage within a week.

By way of background, former legislator Len Price ran against then-first-termer Klinzing in 2004, apparently thinking his name recognition would carry him to victory. Klinzing beat him handily.

This race, however, seems to shape up as a great battle because both candidates are very bright, very well organized, and the electorate seems very unpredictable. Couple that with the apparent wonkiness of both candidates. They seem to eschew the babble in favor of policy analysis.

There might be a tendency to dismiss this race because it is Woodbury, afterall. But I think this is a race that won't be a typical Republican vs. Democrat battle. Both of the candidates, you see, are teachers. And one issue that has always transcended political boundaries in Woodbury, is education; especially secondary education. That's not to say both candidates can't slug it out on the other traditional party-line issues; they can.

Klinzing is a rising star in the GOP caucus. Swails appears to be a rising star in the DFL (OK, a "pulse" generally qualifies in recent elections as a rising star in DFL circles), and it looks like given the ability of both sides to organize, raise money, and campaign, the race will actually tell us more about what the voters think than how recognizable a candidate's name is. The voters, by November, are actually going to know the two.

It might just be enough to make people get interested in issue politics again.

So, what's the lawn sign situation in your legislative district?

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Will Pawlenty decline public subsidies and break the campaign spending limits?

Posted at 2:38 PM on August 28, 2006 by Tom Scheck

Governor Pawlenty's campaign is reporting that they have $2 million in the bank as they head into the general election. That's double what Pawlenty's DFL opponent, Mike Hatch, has on hand. Hatch's campaign is reporting an ending cash balance of $1 million. Pawlenty's campaign manager, Michael Krueger, said they haven't decided if they'll decline the public subsidies and break the campaign spending limits. He says they intend to examine the finance reports from Hatch and two DFL leaning interest groups before they decide.

If Pawlenty breaks the spending limit of $2.3 million, Hatch and Independence Party candidate Peter Hutchinson will be able to share Pawlenty's public subsidy. The two can also raise and spend more for their campaigns.

Hutchinson's campaign will need the money. His campaign is reporting just $16,000 cash on hand. That includes a personal loan of $35,000 over the past nine months. The campaign for DFLer Becky Lourey, says her campaign will report a deficit when they file their report.