Polinaut: August 3, 2006 Archive

Sabato moves line on MN Senate race, says race for governor "leans GOP"

Posted at 10:26 AM on August 3, 2006 by Tom Scheck

Larry Sabato, with the Center for Responsive Politics at the University of Virginia, says he's moving the line on the race between DFLer Amy Klobuchar and Republican Mark Kennedy to "leans Democrat." Here are his comments in his "crystal ball" update on the race:

The Crystal Ball is always wary of the first poll showing dramatic change in a race, but when such change becomes a pattern of a series of surveys, we can't help but take notice. And in about the last month, we have noticed virtually every survey pegs Democratic candidates in crucial statewide races with better chances of winning than previously observed. Although we still don't buy, for example, that Democratic attorney Amy Klobuchar is clobbering GOP Congressman Mark Kennedy in Minnesota's Senate race 50 percent to 31 percent as the Minnesota Star Tribune would have us believe, we are beginning to take every poll we receive along this trend line with a smaller and smaller grain of salt, given their abundance.

He goes into greater detail on his website. Here's what he says there:

It is impossible not to pay attention to the polls showing Amy Klobuchar ahead; she is not ahead as much as a recent Minneapolis Star Tribune poll has indicated (19 percentage points). But, the Democratic breeze in Minnesota is becoming stronger. Unless things improve substantially for Pres. Bush and conditions on the ground in Iraq also improve, it is difficult to see how Congressman Mark Kennedy is going to beat Klobuchar in this contest. For now, we list it as Leans Democratis, recognizing that Kennedy may have some aces up his sleeve, though we are hard-pressed to identify them.

Sabato also weighs in on the race for governor. He says it leans Republican but:

The Crystal Ball is watching the Minnesota governor's race carefully. In another, more Republican year Governor Tim Pawlenty would be in good shape, and we continue to list him as a slight favorite. But, our sources in Minnesota stress to us that people appear to be in a mood to vote Democratic in the Land of 10,000 Lakes. As a result, Attorney General Mike Hatch will be a formidable opponent for Pawlenty.

The Daily Digest 8-3-06

Posted at 11:26 AM on August 3, 2006 by Tom Scheck

The national heavyweights are in Minnesota today. Here's what ABC's "The Note" says about the has to say about the visits from the RNC and Democratic Leader Nancy Pelosi:

The main event at today's RNC summer meeting in Minneapolis, MN comes from 5:00-6:30 pm ET when RNC Chairman Ken Mehlman and White House political director Sara Taylor walk RNC members through the 2006 electoral landscape at the "Welcome Meeting and Strategy Session." Mehlman and Taylor are expected to take questions from RNC members. Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R-MN) is also slated to speak at the welcome meeting. House Democratic Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) is also a part of the fray in Minnesota, starting with a closed fundraiser at the Minneapolis Club for Patty Wetterling, Democratic candidate for the 6th District. At 3:00 pm ET, she will address the "Democratic New Direction for America" conference with Reps. Martin Sabo (D-MN) and Betty McCollum (D-MN) at the Humphrey Forum at the University of Minnesota in Minneapolis.

The Star Tribune focuses on the RNC visit.

The Star Tribune also has a story on Mark Kennedy's second tv ad. You can read more of Kennedy's comments on the Strib's "The Big Question."

NPR's political editor, Ken Rudin, writes about the Minnesota Races in his latest "political junkie" column

Don Davis (who writes for so many newspapers it's hard to keep track) has a story on the Farmfest debate between the candidates for governor. The Bemidji Pioneer and the Marshall Independent also have stories.

The Pioneer Press has a story on the GOP accusing attorney general Mike Hatch of using his office for political gain.

The Star Tribune says the Wetterling Foundation is going to change its name. I wonder where the the Strib got the idea to follow that lead?

St. Paul Mayor Chris Coleman outlines his budget plan and it includes a property tax hike. WCCO-TV, the Pi Press and MPR have stories.

The Star Tribune has a story on a complaint filed against Republican State Senator Julianne Ortmann. MNPublius raised the issue earlier this week.

The Wall Street Journal has a story (subscription required) on how YouTube isn't just for amateurs anymore. They say some professionals are getting into the game to sway public opinion. They use the example of a video mocking Al Gore that was produced by someone who has ties to a public relations/lobbying firm that has Exxon Mobil as a client. My head hurts from writing all of this so I'll let them pick up the rest:

In the video, Mr. Gore appears as a sinister figure who brainwashes penguins and bores movie audiences by blaming the Mideast crisis and starlet Lindsay Lohan's shrinking waist size on global warming. Like other videos on the popular YouTube site, it has a home-made, humorous quality. The video's maker is listed as "Toutsmith," a 29-year-old who identifies himself as being from Beverly Hills in an Internet profile.

In an email exchange with The Wall Street Journal, Toutsmith didn't answer when asked who he was or why he made the video, which has just over 59,000 views on YouTube. However, computer routing information contained in an email sent from Toutsmith's Yahoo account indicate it didn't come from an amateur working out of his basement.
Instead, the email originated from a computer registered to DCI Group, a Washington, D.C., public relations and lobbying firm whose clients include oil company Exxon Mobil Corp.

A DCI Group spokesman declines to say whether or not DCI made the anti-Gore penguin video, or to explain why Toutsmith appeared to be sending email from DCI's computers. "DCI Group does not disclose the names of its clients, nor do we discuss the work that we do on our clients' behalf," says Matt Triaca, who heads DCI's media relations shop.

Dave Gardner, an Exxon spokesman, confirms that Exxon is a client of DCI. But he says Exxon had no role in creating the "Inconvenient Truth" spoof. "We, like everyone else on the planet, have seen it, but did not fund it, did not approve it, and did not know what its source was," Mr. Gardner says.

The anti-Gore video represents a less well-known side of YouTube. As its popularity has exploded, the public video-sharing site has drawn marketers looking to build buzz for new music releases and summer blockbusters. Now, it's being tapped by political operatives, public relations experts and ad agencies to sway opinions.

Ogilvy & Mather, for example, says it plans to post amateur-looking videos on Web sites to spark word-of-mouth buzz about Foster's beer.

The New York Times has a story on the Bush Administration's decision to scale back their proposed changes to Medicare

It's good news for Minnesota's Medical Alley but could be bad news for 3M:

Under intense pressure from health care lobbyists and lawmakers, the Bush administration says it will scale back and delay proposed changes in Medicare payments to hospitals that would have created clear winners and losers. The proposals would have cut payments by 20 percent to 30 percent for many complex treatments and new technologies....

Federal officials had proposed sweeping changes in the classification system, to account for the severity of each patient's illness. They wanted to replace the 526 categories with 861. They settled for more modest changes in 2007, creating 20 diagnostic groups and altering 32 others.

The severity of a patient's illness can have a significant effect on the costs of care. In trying to account for those costs, the proposed rule relied heavily on a patient-classification system devised by 3M, the technology company based in Minnesota.
Hospitals said Medicare should not rely on a proprietary system controlled by a single company.
The Bush administration agreed to consider alternatives, to ensure that no company would have a monopoly over the software needed to manage billing and payment.

Finally, high school students turn down the chance to work with Mary Matalin and James Carville. The Washington Post says the two wanted to do a reality tv show but can't find schools to participate:

Big-time candidates pay hundreds of thousands of dollars for their advice. So wouldn't your li'l politician love to get James Carville and Mary Matalin's guidance for free? Alas, that won't be an option at several area high schools that have said thanks-but-no to the feisty political power couple's offer to campaign-manage their student council races -- before the cameras of a planned Lifetime reality TV series.

"This is a big-deal Hollywood operation," Fairfax County schools spokesman Paul Regnier told our colleague Maria Glod. "They would take over the school. That's their set."

Remember to check out MPR's Campaign 2006 site for all your political needs.

Gubernatorial debate is on MPR at noon.

Posted at 11:43 AM on August 3, 2006 by Tom Scheck (1 Comments)

MPR's Midday program will air Farmfest's gubernatorial debate at noon.

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Peter Hutchinson releases transportation plan

Posted at 12:23 PM on August 3, 2006 by Tom Scheck

Peter Hutchinson, the Independence Party's endorsed candidate for governor, released his transportion plan (the proposal is in pdf form at the bottom of the page). Here's the AP Story (Note- I updated the story with a fresher version) on Hutchinson's tranportation proposal:

ST. PAUL (AP) - Drivers who cause crashes because they're wolfing down hamburgers or applying mascara would face fines under a transportation plan outlined Thursday by Independence Party gubernatorial candidate Peter Hutchinson.
Hutchinson's five-point plan included more conventional provisions - including a 10-cent gas tax increase - but what stood out was his ire at "dumb driving," which he blamed for a quarter of the congestion on state roads.
"You crash, you pay," Hutchinson said at a Capitol news conference. "Your insurance premium is probably going to go up, but what about the penalty being paid by 25,000 drivers who are sitting in traffic waiting for you to get your traffic cleared?"
The gas tax increase and other funding reallocations would raise about $7 billion for transportation over a decade. Hutchinson said he also supports a ban on cell phone use while driving, more toll roads on major freeways to get drivers to car pool or take transit, and more rail lines in the Twin Cities.
As cars become more efficient, he said he wants to look into a way to tax drivers for the miles they drive, instead of the gas they consume.
Saying Minnesota's roads are at their worst in 20 years, Hutchinson criticized Lt. Gov. Carol Molnau, who doubles as transportation commissioner. He said he would appoint a "qualified leader" instead of a politician.
Molnau headed the House Transportation Finance Committee for years before becoming lieutenant governor in 2003.

The campaign says they will release a policy proposal once a week throughout August.