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Campaign O Meter

Posted at 4:09 PM on June 8, 2006 by Bob Collins (2 Comments)

So the big story of the day is the killing of Musab al-Zarqawi. the #2 in al Qaeda (Listen to Sen. Norm Coleman's reaction). I haven't watched any TV, or listened to any radio today (I've been working out of my house because I was waiting for a crate of airplane parts), so I don't really know how it's been handled media-wise, but for the sake of argument, let's assume everyone has played it pretty straight. How does this effect the political universe?

If you're one of those who believes that the low poll numbers for Bush spells victory for Democrats in November -- and I think I've made it clear I don't buy that presumption -- then presumably those numbers go up a bit now, don't they? And if so, does that mean the Republicans just retained a few more seats?

The latest poll numbers for Bush aren't good, but then again that poll came out hours before the news that Zarqawi has gone toes up.

As I said, I don't know how the electronic or newspaper media has covered the reaction, but I've kept in touch with some of the blogs.

On the right, Michelle Malkin doesn't really have a lot of her own to say, other than to note that on the left , Daily Kos - OK, she calls them "Kos crazies" -- are "already at it," I guess for a post that says "on't get me wrong Zarqawi is a great catch. And I hope beyond my cynicism that this symbolic victory will do something on the street in Iraq. But let's make sure we have a plan for when it turns out, this guy wasn't the be all and end all of our Iraq problems."

Another blog on the right -- Newsbusters -- is criticizing mainstream media (MSM), I guess, for "downplaying" the story. Like I said, I haven't paid enough attention to know whether it's being downplayed, although on most core media Internet sites I've seen, it's at the top. But, whatever.

The National Review blog, Mediablog, is -- as you might expect -- is monitoring media reaction and coverage.

On the left, Peking Duck says <"In any case, I'm glad the f*** is dead. Good riddance. A shame we didn't do it years ago when we had plenty of opportunities."

OK, well, again, whatever. It appears we'll have a series of stand-offs over who is more glad that Zarqawi is dead (Zarqawi family, you're excused from the competition, but enjoy the home version of our game). But very little on the political ramifications of this.

And so far, nothing from the conspiracy people who'll suggest he was actually killed some time ago but the news was kept for an opportune time. But, it's early.

Comments (2)

November is still a long way away. It's clear the GOP will see a short-term bump in their poll numbers this week. Whether that will last until the election is very difficult to say - often a success against an insurgency leads to an uptick in violence - and I think we're not hearing about domestic political ramifications because the GOP is concerned about repeating the aircraft carrier fiasco.

The formation of a functioning govenment in Iraq should have been a much bigger news story yesterday - unfortunate timing on Zarqawi - now that we have functioning defense and interior ministeries, there are finally functioning institutions which could eventually replace US and coalition forces as security for that country. I know that the GOP is saying no reductions in troop levels, but I strongly suspect that there will be at least a nominal drawdown sometime in October. I'm certain that that piece of news will save a GOP seat or two.

Posted by Justin C. Adams | June 9, 2006 9:31 AM

> nd so far, nothing from the conspiracy people who'll suggest he was actually killed some time ago but the news was kept for an opportune time. But, it's early.

That's me, always beating the rush...

http://www.browncross.com/usualsuspects/

Posted by Albatross | June 9, 2006 11:07 AM

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