Another lesson. But is it learned?

Posted at 8:46 AM on June 7, 2006 by Bob Collins (9 Comments)

The National Journal's Hotline blog has the latest from the -- in their words, not mine -- Super Midterm Tuesday -- results.

The quick analysis of the California 50th, via the Hotline. (See comments)

* Democrats lost the election despite the heavy emphasis they placed on ethics and corruption in this race, and the fact that Francine Busby ran for this seat nonstop for almost 2-1/2 years.

* Not only did National Democrats lose in a district where the right track/wrong track has plummeted in recent months, they also failed to take advantage of an environment as friendly to their "culture of corruption" argument as they are going to find: the GOP incumbent resigned and then went to jail while the Republican candidate to succeed him was a lobbyist.

* This Was a Team Effort. The NRCC spent just over $4.5 million on voter contact. The Administration was very helpful – President Bush, First Lady Laura Bush and Vice President Cheney all recorded GOTV phone calls and Vice President Cheney hosted a fundraiser. The RNC organized the Election Day GOTV operation. Senator McCain was a big help as well, hosting a fundraiser and recording both a radio ad and a GOTV phone call.

* The NRCC's Commitment to This Race Made the Difference. The NRCC spent what it took to win.

* Special Elections Are Unique. It is no surprise that this was a close race. Historically, the results of special elections do not always reflect a district's traditional profile.

In other words, Democrats, wipe that smugness off your face. Nobody's going to hand you anything just because you're not Republicans.

Update 1:01 PM - Ken Rudin at NPR analyzes yesterday's electoral results. He pretty much repeats the "GOP future is not pretty" mantra. I apparently am the only person in America not affiliated with the Republican Party that isn't ready to buy it.

I was thinking on the way in to work today that someone surely will cite high gas prices today as a bad omen for GOP prospects. I was thinking this as cars went zipping by me at I-94 at 65-75 mph. Mark my words: people are lying when they say they're concerned about high gas prices. They don't even care enough -- and apparently aren't penny-pinched enough -- to even take their foot off the gas even a little bit.

When I see them slowing down, I'll know those prices are hurting folks to the point where it could swing an election.

---

Comments (9)

Bob, read the article again. Hotline was just reposting the NRCC "memo to "GOP friends" (i.e. talking points)". Perhaps their "analysis" should not be taken at face value?

"In other words, Democrats, wipe that smugness off your face. Nobody's going to hand you anything just because you're not Republicans."

Have you done any research on CA-50? I worked in the region in 2004 and DNC canvassers were afraid for the lives to go into many places where "Democrat = Traitor/Untouchable" was common knowledge.

A large swath of the population there believes we should put gattling guns and bouncing betty landmines on the border and would be willing to vote for Satan or even worse A LAWYER to get it done (and by all accounts they did).

Busby's problem was that she was taken in by the DC thought-machine. Meanwhile, Tester in MT crushed the DC candidate by running a populist campaign.

Posted by blankout7 | June 7, 2006 10:55 AM

---

Democrats are smug? I hadn't noticed. Nationally, Democrats are disorganized cowardly timeservers happier to remain in second place than risk anything to retake Congress. Hadn't noticed them being smug.

Posted by Albatross | June 7, 2006 10:56 AM

---

Not really sure what the "timeservers" is in reference to but let's be clear: there is a small portion of Democrats in the party's power centers who fit the bill of the above description. There is another, new group of Democrats, who are slowly but surely taking power from the ground up. Nov. 2006 will be the first true test if their populist message takes hold (and the litmus is not a sweep of both branches).

You want to see why CA-50 ended up as it did? Go to:

http://bilbrayforcongress.com/issues/
http://www.busbyforcongress.com/

Billbray is in front of the beautiful costal cliffs of the district. Busby is in front of the Capitol building. Wait, who is running against the establishment here? Talk about cognitive dissonance.

Posted by blankout7 | June 7, 2006 11:04 AM

---

Re: smugness. I'm not talking about the 50th. I'm talking about the party as a whole now and the thing I've written about numerous times -- the assumption that there's a groundswell of anti-GOP fervor because there's a -- let's face it -- anti-Bush fervor.

As I said then -- and am repeating now -- I'm not convinced that's going to lead to much because people who want to "throw the bums out" aren't usually talking about their bums -- though bums they may be.

Wendell Anderson and George Latimer are essentially saying the same thing on Midday right now; you've GOT to give people a reason to vote for you...concrete ideas.

Let me give you an example: I'm saving all of these e-mail newsletters that candidates for governor send out. The ones I've received this week have all been about what's wrong with Tim Pawlenty, but they don't tell me what's right with the candidate who sent them out -- I mean SPECIFIC ideas, not that stump speech nonsense.

Pawlenty won in '02 because he rode the taxes message.

I think for the DFL to have success in '06, it needs a clear message with specifics. I haven't heard one yet and I've been paying attention. Lord knows what the bulk of the population that doesn't give a rip aobut politics until, maybe, September is thinking.

Posted by Bob Collins | June 7, 2006 11:26 AM

---

Bob, if Pawlenty won because of the "no taxes" message, is that an example of the sort of idea you're talking about or is it a stump speech talking point?

Posted by anonymous | June 7, 2006 11:36 AM

---

The only thing we saw in these races was that partisan extremists can buy elections. I also think the point about democrats being cowardly is right on target. Republicans have co-opted government spending programs, and democrats long ago abandoned civil rights and individual liberties as central issues. Take for example civil unions. Republicans have a position - gay people should not be granted the same rights as straight people under US law. The Democrats seem to basically agree - the only difference between them is that the GOP takes controversial approach that energizes their base (pressing for constitutional change) while the Democrats take the timid, safe approach (supporting existing legal prohibitions of civil unions between gays).

If the democrats want to stay relevent, they're going to need to develop some cajones. If they don't other legitimate liberals will realize like I did that if you want something done right, do it yourself.

Posted by Justin C. Adams | June 7, 2006 11:36 AM

---

"If they don't other legitimate liberals will realize like I did that if you want something done right, do it yourself."

So you're going to be a candidate? Which race?

On the other hand, if you're talking about a violent overthrow of the government, count me in!

Bob: I agree with the above analysis re: Democrats being for something = electoral victory. The problem isn't that Democrats are for things, the problem is in the communication of those policies. I'm waiting for the day when a politician finally makes the CostCo = Single Payer Health Care analogy.

Republicans can suffer from the same problem however. Looking at T-Paw's website all I can tell is that he favors the color red and is part of "Team Minnesota" (if you idle on the front page, he changes clothing

Posted by blankout7 | June 7, 2006 2:03 PM

---

I'm a candidate for MN House 58A, north Minneapolis. Hoping to avoid any violence, though.

Posted by Justin C. Adams | June 7, 2006 2:11 PM

---

>Not really sure what the "timeservers" is in reference to but let's be clear: there is a small portion of Democrats in the party's power centers who fit the bill of the above description.

Them's who I mean.

> There is another, new group of Democrats, who are slowly but surely taking power from the ground up.

I'm all for the "Crashing the Gates" Democrats, but it's going to be very hard to winkle the leadership out of their coral reef of ossification in order to effect change. Basically the Democrats now are where the Republicans were in the 1970's. I don't think it will take thirty years to catch up, but it won't happen before November...

Posted by Albatross | June 8, 2006 10:27 AM

---

Post a comment

The following HTML tags are allowed in your comments:
+ Bold: <b>Text</b>
+ Italic: <i>Text</i>
+ Link: <a href="http://url" target="_blank">Link</a>
Fields marked with * are required.

Name*:

Email Address*:

URL:

Remember personal info?

Comments*:

Comment Preview appears above this form upon pressing the "preview" button. Edit your comment and press "preview" again, until you are satisfied with your comment.

Your comment may not appear on the blog until several minutes after it was submitted.

• E-mail this page
• Print this page
• Save to Delicious
• Submit to Digg
• Share this

Services

• Hourly Newscast
• HD Radio
• iPhone App / Mobile
• E-mail newsletters
• RSS feeds
• Podcasts
• Submit your photos
• Videos
• Weather
• Most e-mailed stories

Become a Sponsor