Polinaut: June 29, 2006 Archive

Just another day in the Senate race.

Posted at 8:27 AM on June 29, 2006 by Bob Collins (2 Comments)

National Review online writer John J. Miller has changed the rating of the Minnesota Senate race to "toss-up" status.

In March, he had it rated "Likely Republican Takeover."

Meanwhile, Rasmussen Reports has new Minnesota numbers out. Unfortunately, Minnesota is behind the "premium content" firewall at Rasmussen. But Kennedy vs. the Machine reports it's 47% Klobuchar and 44% Kennedy; within the margin-of-error.

Maybe it's me, I haven't "spreadsheeted" the polls in this race, but the numbers don't seem to be moving in this or other polls. Rasmussen in January had it 43-42 Klobuchar. In February, it was 45-42 Klobuchar. In April -- or maybe it was May -- it was 45-43 Klobuchar.

Rasmussen has a very high margin of error -- 4.5% -- so who knows. Still, it sounds like a lot of people have made up their mind in this contest, and a healthy number don't seem all that interested yet.

Maybe the State Fair will determine the winner.

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Don't look down.

Posted at 1:19 PM on June 29, 2006 by Bob Collins

Suddenly, Polinaut does not feel so alone in the great political universe. After Polinaut noted several times over the last two months that the notion of Republican losses in November is not something he embraces as fact, he notices more and more folks venturing back from the limb they were on.

The latest? Larry Sabato.

But a little more than four months out from the election, the Crystal Ball is not yet ready to view the GOP majority as a flimsy house of cards, nor in our estimation should Murtha fast-forward to helping Pelosi hand out committee gavels to the ranking members of his caucus. The Republican margin in the House of Representatives may be more tenuous this year than it has been in any election cycle since its inception in 1994, but a larger wave than currently exists must build in order to completely erode the GOP's 15-seat edge, and by no means has the party in power already been swept out to sea.

Polinaut is, frankly, confused that more professional prognosticators have not remembered the cardinal rule of prognostication: no matter what happens, always be in a position to say "I told you so."

Polispam

Posted at 1:46 PM on June 29, 2006 by Bob Collins

The spam-to-the-comments problem has gotten quite severe this month and with me leaving orbit, we've switched comments back to "approval required" mode because the folks who will take over Polinaut will likely not be able to keep as close an eye on it and we really don't want those spammer creeps to succeed.

And, politicians, maybe it's time to bring the whole SPAM issue into the campaign. Want some votes? Promise to do something about it.

Humphrey Institute forum series opens

Posted at 3:59 PM on June 29, 2006 by Bob Collins

The Humphrey Institute began its series of political forums today, with DFL Senate candidate Amy Klobuchar. Here's the audio of her presentation (RealAudio). There was a subsequent question-and-answer session which I'm encoding now (RealAudio). The first question was about her lobbying and how she feels about it now. This was, obviously, a question based on MDE's many posts on Klobuchar's lobbying. She knew it too. She quickly turned the subject to her role as a prosecutor.

Thanks to MPR's Capitol Bureau chief Laura McCallum for sending these along.

Klobuchar challenges Bell

Posted at 4:41 PM on June 29, 2006 by Bob Collins (1 Comments)

The Klobuchar camp has shot a letter to the Ford Bell campaign, over the signature of campaign manager Ben Goldfarb:

I was surprised to learn yesterday that your campaign had interest in scheduling debates after Dr. Bell failed to appear with County Attorney Klobuchar on stage to answer questions at the DFL State Convention. Additionally, Dr. Bell had stated that he would not run in the primary if County Attorney Klobuchar won a "convincing" victory at this convention. I trust you consider 78% to be convincing.

Nonetheless, County Attorney Klobuchar is willing to appear in debates with Dr. Bell at Farm Fest on Tuesday, August 1, and the Coalition of Greater Minnesota Cities Summer Conference on Thursday, August 3.

These venues will be a strong complement to the numerous debates already conducted in the Twin Cities area as well as the dozens of public events such as community festivals scheduled for the summer, and will give voters an opportunity to hear candidates' positions on a diversity of issues.

That reminds me. I asked my neighbor, who's a bigshot with the Department of Agriculture, how the campaign is playing in farm country. "Not much," he said. "The political season for farmers starts at Farm Fest," he said.

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Dueling campaign managers

Posted at 5:07 PM on June 29, 2006 by Bob Collins

MPR's Laura McCallum was there and she says she didn't see anything, but the Mark Kennedy campaign's manager, Pat Shortridge, fired off a letter to Kloubuchar campaign manager Ben Goldfarb.

According to a news release from Kennedy staffer Heidi Frederickson:

Following a public speech given by Amy Klobuchar today at the Humphrey Institute on ethics, a staff member from Klobuchar’s U.S. Senate campaign forcibly detained interns from Mark Kennedy’s campaign who were there to tape the event demanding that they turn over the recording.

In a letter to Goldfarb, campaign manager Pat Shortridge attributed the reports to "multiple independent sources."

Stay tuned, I guess.

And now this live report from the scene...

Posted at 6:04 PM on June 29, 2006 by Bob Collins (2 Comments)

I called Kennedy campaign intern Michel Weilbodt a bit ago to find out firsthand what the story is with the Humphrey Institute flap as described earlier. Here's the RealAudio. Now I remember why I like politics so much. Before Polinaut, MPR only let me out once every four years, to go to the national conventions, where I mostly just talked to regular folks in irregular settings. You meet a lot of interesting people that way and, man, do I ever love doing that!

So I asked Michael about the incident and it didn't sound like a huge deal and, as I usually do, I found myself more interested in Michael and politics -- pretty much the same thing I do at those conventions.

You know -- and I'm now leaving the whole taping-flap for you to figure out whether you want to be outraged or what (Update for the record: personally, I think there's little reason for any candidate to be afraid of the documentation of their own words) -- you just have to love the enthusiasm in the guy's voice. Maybe the rest of us crusty cynics can learn a few things.

My boss asked me a week or so ago, "what do you want to do when you come back." This is what I want to do. Talk to real people again.

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Now don't do it again or we'll pass another resolution

Posted at 10:04 PM on June 29, 2006 by Bob Collins (1 Comments)

The U.S. House passed a resolution today condemning the publication of word that the government has been tracking bank accounts for signs of terrorist activity. Minnesota's Republican delegation was joined by Rep. Collin Peterson in voting for the condemnation. I wonder how often Republicans make overtures to Peterson to switch parties?

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