Polinaut: June 22, 2006 Archive

Zogby: Klobuchar, Pawlenty score well

Posted at 11:58 AM on June 22, 2006 by Bob Collins (2 Comments)

The quarterly Zogby numbers are out in the Wall Street Journal's (the well-known liberal mouthpiece) battleground polls. Once you get past the unnerving voice of a woman saying "click on the states for more information," (well, duh. Really? People couldn't figure that out on their own?), we find that in the Senate race, Klobuchar leads Kennedy by about 49-percent to 41-percent.

In the gov's race, Pawlenty over Hatch 45 percent to about 40 percent; a reversal of fortune for the incumbent.

Now the folks who don't like the results will natter on about Zogby's methodology and poor predictions (thus revealing a belief that polls predict anything in the first place).

Zogby's numbers in the Senate race haven't moved. Here's the thing, though. I don't think people give a rip about either of these races yet. I'm not seeing, as a severe anecdote, the traffic on our Campaign 2006 site this year as in past years and Select A Candidate isn't doing much this year as in past years.

Granted, in the past we had a presidential race that was hard to ignore, but I'm beginning to believe that more people than usual have just tuned out the election. I've always seen a huge jump in traffic in these areas after Labor Day, and I expect I will see that again this year. But I don't know how to explain the apparent disinterest prior to that becuase it seems more severe than usual.

If true, I suppose that could mean all the energy -- words and money -- expended so far by each campaign against the other has either fallen on deaf ears, or on those in the other candidates' camps.

Of course, I also suppose at this point in the campaign the goal is just to raise $$$, not votes.

(Update 4:07 p.m.) - Speaking of surveys, I've been remiss not to mention the pleasing site upgrade at Rasmussen Reports. One of my favorite spots is the party affiliation trend which monitors, apparently, the swing -- or not -- in favor. The site is also now nicely tabbed to integrate news issues, political people, and election polling.

Unfortunately, there's no search function. Who puts up a Web site anymore without a search function? It's like a blog without comments.

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Tidbits from the 5th

Posted at 12:59 PM on June 22, 2006 by Bob Collins

A couple of semi-newsy notes from the 5th District Congressional race.

I'm always interested in new ideas about campaigning and it looks like Tammy Lee has come up with one. According to a letter being mailed out over the signature of Tim Penny, she's set up a conference call with her (and apparently Penny acting as host). I don't know if these are targeted invites so I'm not posting the phone number, other than to notes that it's next Monday (1 p.m. and 2 p.m. CT) and Tuesday (10 am. and 11 a.m. CT).

* * *

Jesse Jackson to campaign for Keith Ellison. That's all I know about it. Tom Scheck told me there's something about it on the Ellison Web site but I can't find it. (Updated 1:54) With Tom as my guide dog, I found it on the June 30th listing.

The well-oiled machines

Posted at 3:41 PM on June 22, 2006 by Bob Collins (2 Comments)

A lot of campaign folks read Polinaut; I know this because a lot of campaign folks -- and the occasional blog surrogate -- complain about Polinaut. Such is life. But may I just offer this piece of advice to the campaigns in the Senate race? I don't think the attempt to paint the other as the candidate of big money is going to work because I think folks recognize -- and the numbers suggest they recognize correctly -- that the two candidates are candidates of big money. Why? Well, because they have it; they're hauling it in by the bucketload. Is there another definition I'm missing?

The press releases that result often sound like a "your fat, rich moneybag is richer than my fat, rich moneybag." You know, I'm just not sure that's a situation that resonates -- at least well -- with voters.

Folks, this is a big-money race and a glance at the contributors to both of the major candidates -- Amy Klobuchar and Mark Kennedy (links open contributor lists)-- are raking in the dough and it ain't coming from just Auntie Louise. And we're not even talking about PACs yet.

Every time either one has a fundraiser at a big name's house, the press releases crank out from the other side.

I think it's probably too late to put the genie back in the bottle on this one. Money's going to be pouring into both campaigns between now and November. And nobody's in a hurry to shut off the tap .

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It always comes back to taxes

Posted at 7:32 PM on June 22, 2006 by Bob Collins (2 Comments)

I was listening to Pat Kessler on Dan Barreiro's show on the drive home tonight. It was a little tough to follow because of Barreiro's penchant for, shall we say, taking side roads. Mr. Magoo had more focus. But eventually he settled down to talk to Kessler a bit about this ad that apparently was in the Strib this morning (I'm not presently a subscriber so I didn't see it) from a group of wealthy Minnesotans who say they should be taxed more to make up for what's happened in the state in the last few years.

Kessler was suggesting, if I followed it correctly, that this was now what the campaign the rest of the way would be about. Since what campaigns are about are -- let's face it -- what the media chooses to talk about, and since Kessler is probably the most influential TV political reporter in Minnesota, and since political reporters tend to run in packs, I'm guessing he's right.

Which puts the taxes issue front-and-center again on the gubernatorial stage. That being the case, we might as well hold the election tomorrow.

Still, it will require a little finesse since Pawlenty has ticked off the Taxpayers League recently, while saying he won't be signing anymore no-new-taxes pledges. There's also the little matter of leading the band on new stadiums.

So, do Democrats push him into a corner on the tax issue? How can they without ending up whacked upside the head again with the "tax-and-spend" tag? Can Pawlenty whack them upside the head again with the "tax-and-spend" tag? How can he since he's refusing to say he won't rule out new taxes?

Pawlenty returned serve pretty quickly today when he said, basically, "here's the state's address, go ahead and send the cash." Of course the pesky media also dogged him on the Crosstown highway reconstruction debacle, which -- for the record -- probably won't play big in Willmar. Anyway, here's the audio.

And on the other side, here's Joel Kramer on All Things Considered tonight.

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IP gov preview

Posted at 7:59 PM on June 22, 2006 by Bob Collins

MPR's Laura McCallum has just turned in a piece running in the morning on Morning Edition previewing the IP gubernatorial race.