Capitol View: May 18, 2006 Archive

You just can't beat coincidence

Posted at 11:39 AM on May 18, 2006 by Bob Collins

I was washing some dishes this morning and thinking, "what the heck ever happened to the federal marriage amendment? All those folks in November of 2004 campaigned as if it would be the first thing they did when they got back inside the Beltway and hear it is May 2006?"

Now I know.

Don't vote for my opponent, he'll probably die

Posted at 12:36 PM on May 18, 2006 by Bob Collins (3 Comments)

Well, I guess here's a new approach to a campaign message. The National Journal has the mailer that Bill Conrad, a candidate for Assembly in California, is using against an incumbent.

Makes you feel good to live in Minnesota, doesn't it?

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Does this only apply in generic congressional districts?

Posted at 1:56 PM on May 18, 2006 by Bob Collins (6 Comments)

Rasmussen has a poll that just feels like it's full of holes. But I pass it along anyway.

Following the President's Monday night speech, Democrats enjoy a 15-point advantage on the Generic Congressional Ballot. A Rasmussen Reports national opinion survey of 1,000 Likely Voters found that 48% would vote for the Democrat in their district if the election were held today. Just 33% would vote for the Republican.

Why do I think it's full of holes? Well,here's today's congressional vote forecast map from Congressional Quarterly. Red is leaning, strongly leaning or safe Republican. Does that look like the Republicans are in trouble to you?

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It just happened again

Posted at 2:03 PM on May 18, 2006 by Bob Collins (2 Comments)

Last minute vote-switching in the Minnesota House. The House just passed a ban on the sale of "mature" videogames to kids under 17. Just before the vote closed, and it was a sure win, I counted something like 7 representatives who voted "no," telling House Speaker Steve Sviggum they were voting "yes."

Did they have a sudden change of heart given the nature of the debate in the 75 seconds between their vote of "no" and their switch to "yes?" Or is it something more?

I guess this is how "I voted against it after I voted for it" becomes part of campaign lexicon.

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A cut-and-paste political ad

Posted at 3:41 PM on May 18, 2006 by Bob Collins (1 Comments)

I'm writing this as a public service to all those folks out there who specialize in writing biting political ads who are having a hard time coming up with something for the next campaign.

I was just watching the Minnesota House debate the omnibus health finance bill and somebody offered and amendement -- I can't remember what it was about, maybe health care for kids or something -- and on a voice vote the speaker -- in this case Greg Davids -- said "all in favor?" followed by a not-very-signficant number of "ayes" and then he said "all opposed?" followed by a ringing chorus of "no's" delivered not only with passion and gusto, but with the sense that they thought if they said it loud enough, they could also skip mass on Sunday.

It was then that I realized that the political parties are completely missing out on a great ad. And mine is a bipartisan effort, the first party that steals it can have it. Just change the issues as you see fit.

Want to hear it? Fine. Here goes.

Ahem.

(Quiet, subdued political ad narrator voice with just the right amount of exasperation?)

What do you think? If you like it, better steal that audio soon, though. The bill just passed 132-0.

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Shhhhh! It'll be our little secret

Posted at 5:11 PM on May 18, 2006 by Bob Collins

Courtesy of NPR, we learn today that "freedom of the press" is no longer in the Constitution. Hardly a discouraging word is uttered among the folks who swore to defend and uphold it.

But there is a logical excuse: Alfonso Aguilar, the director of the office of citizenship at the U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services, acknowledges that the flash cards are based on "flawed" information, and that it will be corrected.

Flawed information? Does that mean nobody in charge at the U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services recognized that a fundamental part of the Constitution was missing?

I wonder if the people who "missed it" had to learn the Constitution as a condition of living here. Or maybe..... (dah dah dum dum...)

Round up the usual suspects. And check to see if the flash cards still have the 18th Amendment in effect; preferably before Happy Hour.

Safe at home?

Posted at 6:33 PM on May 18, 2006 by Bob Collins (2 Comments)

Congressional Quarterly takes a look at those folks who bucked their party to vote against the budget resolution early this morning. "All House Democrats present voted against the resolution, arguing that it would shortchange vital programs. Most Republicans supported the budget blueprint, saying that it would reduce the rate of growth in federal programs but not cut spending, and also allow for tax relief," CQ said.

In looking at the Republicans, we found this:

• Jim Ramstad, Minnesota’s 3rd District: Another prominent GOP moderate, Ramstad has dominated elections in suburbs west of Minneapolis. Democrats say they will make a serious run in the district, which narrowly favored Bush in 2004, when Ramstad eventually leaves Congress — but admit they are unlikely to do so before then. CQ Rating: Safe Republican

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What is a real Republican?

Posted at 8:13 PM on May 18, 2006 by Bob Collins

Tom Scheck, who never misses a thing, sends along an e-mail to supporters and others from Libertarian-turned-Republican gubernatorial candidate Sue Jeffers.

Update on Sue at the GOP Conventions
A message from Sue Jeffers

I had a wonderful speech to give at the GOP Congressional District conventions, most of which were held the weekend of May 6th. My speech was titled, "What is a Real Republican?"

My speech addressed many issues important to the voters in Minnesota. Even with a Republican governor, a Republican House, and an evenly divided Senate, our state has continued to binge on tax dollars. Under the current watch we saw the 2005 legislative session produce a partial state government shut down, gambling expansion proposals, a minimum wage increase, double digit property tax increases, $559 million in fee increases and our state budget grew 8% to become the largest state budget in Minnesota history. It makes one wonder what happened to notions of smaller, more efficient government.

Continuing along a similar path, the 2006 session is about funding stadiums, a billion-dollar bonding bill, the Clean Water Legacy Act, and over $80 million for mass transit. Is anyone looking out for the taxpayers?

Unfortunately, Republican Party officials decided I was not welcome at the conventions. My staff and I were uninvited to the conventions and blackballed from attending. I chose not to turn these conventions into a media circus and will concentrate on attending the state convention June 1st - 3rd.

I have formally requested the delegate lists, contacted the nominating committee and asked for access to the State Convention. I am waiting for a response. If the party refuses to allow me to attend, I would hope the party officials would explain the basis for an arbitrary exclusion of any viable candidate seeking their endorsement. I would hope they would welcome all conservative candidates to compete.

Delegates who are familiar with my hard work within the party appreciate my goal to open the debate. My intent is to further party principles. I know a couple delegates who strongly oppose my challenge to Tim Pawlenty. Their opposition seems to stem from an eager willingness to settle for the status quo. In my opinion, the status quo is just not good enough. Voters deserve better.

Keep watching. I think this is going to get very interesting pretty darn quick.

The approval rating-midterm effect

Posted at 10:25 PM on May 18, 2006 by Bob Collins (5 Comments)

Daily Kos isn't one of my daily stops but Swing State Project is and SSP caught note of a study with lots of charts and graphs that seem to suggest a correlation between a president's approval rating and the midterm performance of his party.

Now, keep in mind in the comments section, someone points out that the guy who did this really wants to be concentrating on Polynomial matching, not straight line. And also the Y variable may not be Delta. Now, as someone who pointed out the obvious suggested, a Delta vs. approval rating with a 5 percent Polynomial might overfit the data. Right?

For the life of me, I can't figure out why the Democrats have such a hard time getting their message out. Can you?

How would a Republican Web site interpret the data? It would say, "we're gonna kick your ..." And folks would nod and say "yep," and go about their day.

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