When Colin Peterson retires...

Posted at 4:54 PM on April 10, 2006 by Bob Collins (2 Comments)

The GOP picks up a seat. Or so this would indicate.

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Comments (2)

You are likely correct. But if the 3rd CD keeps trending as it has, when Jim Ramstad retires, it might be a Democratic pick-up. The numbers (1998 and 2000 elections, which took place before redistricting, have been adjusted to reflect the present-day 3rd CD):

-In 2000, Bush beat Gore by 4% (49.2% to 45.2%). In 2004, Bush beat Kerry by almost 3%, 51.0 to 48.1. Alone, this statistic does not prove much. But consider that...

-From 1998 to 2004, DFL state House candidates as a whole increased their percentage of the vote by 11.8% (from 34.4% to 46.3%). GOP House candidates as a whole saw their vote percentage drop from 65.4% in 1998 to 52.2 in 2004. Completing the math, the 1998 margin for the GOP was +31.0%; in 2004, that margin fell to +5.9%.

I stress the word "might" in "might be a Democratic pick-up." 2006 will be a great predictor of whether the 3rd CD continues to trend DFL, or whether it reverts back to more strongly GOP. It will offer better comparisons for U.S. Senate (2002 and 2006; I have not looked at 1996) and governor (2002 and 2006; in 1998, by my calculation, Ventura edged out Coleman, 38.9% to 38.5%, in the present-day 3rd CD).

The one outlier here is the state Senate races. In 2000, DFL Senate candidates took 44.6% across the 3rd CD, but fell to 37.6% in 2002. IP candidates, however, had a negligable effect in 2000, but grabbed 8.4% in 2002. The GOP actually saw its percentage fall slightly in 2002, from 55.4% in 2002 to 54.6%.

These numbers question why the DFL is fighting so hard against John Kline and letting Ramstad run without, to date, an opponent. I have not calculated these comparisons in the 2nd CD - it was more greatly impacted by redistricting than the 3rd. I realize Ramstad is a strong incumbent (okay, a VERY strong incumbent), but his district appears to be changing beneath him.

Posted by minntelect | April 10, 2006 11:51 PM

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As I'm sure others will be eager to point out, there are DFL candidates - Wendy Wilde, of some repute from Air America Radio and IMP, is exploring a run, and a gentleman named Tommy Johnson is running as well. I frankly don't think either has a chance starting this late in the game, but if either can clear 40% and force Ramstad to do some campaigning at home instead of going out fundraising for Kline, Gutknecht, and Bachmann/Krinkie/Esmay/etc., all the better for the DFL.

Posted by MN Campaign Report | April 11, 2006 8:33 AM

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