Minnewisowa

by Barry Casselman

Minneapolis
Minnesota is at the center of a political superstate
I call "Minnewisowa" (Minnesota, Wisconsin,
Iowa), which could be a vital battleground for the
presidential elections of 2008, as it was in 2004.
Minnewisowa has 28 electoral votes (more than
Pennsylvania, Ohio, Illinois, or Michigan), and its
component states not only vote similarly, but, since
2000, are also among the most competitive "swing"
states in the nation.

In this year's midterm elections, all three states have
competitive contests for governor. The GOP could
pick up the executive posts in Wisconsin and Iowa,
with two sitting congressmen as candidates: Mark
Green (if he wins the Wisconsin GOP nomination)
and Jim Nussle in Iowa. That's the good news for
Republicans. The bad news is that both these House
seats, now vacated, could be won by Democrats.
The incumbent Republican governor of Minnesota,
Tim Pawlenty, is favored to win reelection in a
three-way contest that will feature a candidate from
the state's Independence party (which previously
fielded Jesse Ventura). While it remains to be seen
if this candidate can win anything like the 37 percent
Ventura achieved, his presence will make it difficult
for any Democratic-Farmer-Labor (DFL) candidate to
win. The major battle in Minnesota and the region
will be for the Senate seat being vacated by
incumbent Democrat Mark Dayton. Congressman
Mark Kennedy successfully warded off an intra-party
fight for the GOP nomination, and this seat is probably
the best opportunity for a GOP pick-up in 2006.

Hennepin County (Minneapolis) Attorney Amy
Klobuchar had originally planned to run as the DFL
candidate for state attorney general, but when Dayton
unexpectedly decided to retire after one term, she
entered the Senate race. Patty Wetterling, who became
well-known in the state for her efforts on behalf of
children following the kidnapping of her son, and
who ran a strong race for Congress against Kennedy in
2004, was Klobuchar's main opponent until she
abruptly withdrew to run again for the 6th district
Congressional seat. Ford Bell, a liberal philanthropist
with his own financial resources, but politically
unknown, also entered. Almost by default, Klobuchar
thus became the almost-certain DFL nominee, and a
costly primary was avoided. Bell remains in the race,
but polls show him far behind Klobuchar.

Klobuchar does have problems. Although she has
raised substantial funds, she is not well-known
outside the state’s largest city. With crime rising
rapidly in Minneapolis, the GOP is trying to make
her record as county attorney an issue. Recent high
profile crimes in the city's upscale neighborhoods
could put her on the defensive. A moderate liberal,
Klobuchar is being pulled to the left by her party
base (as is happening throughout the country this
year).

Kennedy is an authentic conservative who has
represented one of the state's most conservative
districts. But to succeed in statewide Minnesota
politics, a candidate has to appeal to the state's
large political center. Freshman Senator Norm
Coleman has apparently done this, helped by a
charismatic political personality. The late Senator
Paul Wellstone was much more liberal than most
voters in the state, but his personal qualities
enabled him to be reelected. Former Senator Rod
Grams, who served during some of the same time as
Wellstone did, was as conservative as Wellstone
was liberal, but he made few gestures to the political
center, and was defeated after only one term.
Kennedy's campaign is not made easier by the
inevitable comparisons with Coleman and Pawlenty,
both GOP stars who have obvious rapport with
Republican voters. On the other hand, Kennedy was
a successful businessman who upset a popular DFL
incumbent in 1998, and is known for relentless
hard work on the campaign trail.

President Bush, as elsewhere, is unpopular now in
Minnesota (he almost won the state in 2000 and 2004).
Kennedy has been a constant supporter of the
administration, and the DFL is making a strong effort
to tie him to the president. In the past, most successful
GOP senators in this state have managed to establish a
maverick image that appears somewhat independent of
Republican administrations. Coleman has done this so
far by voting against oil drilling in Alaska. Kennedy
has yet to find the issues to demonstrate his
independence. Although no major DFLer or
Republican is expected to enter the race at this late
date, there is always the possibility that a serious
Independence party candidate (Tim Penny?) could
enter and throw the race into a three-way turmoil.

Both the national Democratic and Republican Senate
campaign committees have placed a very high priority
on this race, and are certain to funnel in substantial
funds here to help their nominees. Major liberal and
conservative interest groups will do the same. It will
almost certainly be one of the most-watched contests
in the 2006 elections.

A lot is at stake here. A Kennedy win would likely
mean that a Democratic tide had not developed, and
that the GOP would keep its majority in the Senate. A
Klobuchar win, combined with Democratic wins in
other close races across the country, would mean that
the GOP majority is highly vulnerable. Either way it
will be a leading indicator of which way the wind is
blowing in "Minnewisowa," with immense
implications for 2008.