Polinaut: April 4, 2006 Archive

The line forms here...

Posted at 11:43 AM on April 4, 2006 by Bob Collins (1 Comments)

Tom Scheck just sent me a picture of the line waiting to get into the Judiciary Committee meeting where the marriage amendment bill is going to be heard.

Imagine the lines in November if it makes the ballot.

Update: I see where a blog with an occasional, but passing, relationship with reason says that line above proves a bias against the bill. Really? You think? That would mean that everyone standing in that line is for the bill. I'm kinda thinking they're not. I'm also kinda thinking that the bill will draw both opponents and proponents to the polls and I think if the bill passes, there'll be long lines at the polls.

Where I come from saying, "there'll be long lines at the polls in November if this is on the ballot," means "I think there'll be long lines at the polls." Only reader bias can reach another conclusion.

* * * *

By the way, this question about whether the appearance on the ballot in November is an attempt to help GOP candidates is an interesting one when looked at intelligently. The theory goes that if it's on the ballot, the GOP base will be energized, show up, and vote in GOP candidates.

But is that a given? If you look at the exit polls from 2004, the election was a referendum on Iraq, and John Kerry won the state. Not all that surprising. But what was surprising is that almost 1 in 3 voters voted against a candidate, not for for one.

Consider the top-of-the-ticket as the "referendum." Did it result in change elsewhere on the ballot? Nope. Every incumbent congressperson won re-election. John Kerry took Wright County, Washington County, and Stearns County , Rep. Mark Kennedy was re-elected. So where was the energized base in this "referendum?"
(This is wrong. See the comments section).

On the other hand, Gov. Jesse Ventura's victory is often credited to a constitutional amendment on the right to hunt. I tend to view this as another example of party hacks not understanding why Jesse Ventura won in this state. Ventura won the minute he sat next to Norm Coleman and Skip Humphrey at the first debate to which he was invited... and opened his mouth.

And it's true that in 2004, DFLers picked up 13 seats in the Minnesota House, 14 incumbents lost. Twelve were Republican (Arlon Lindner ran in a three-way after being disavowed by the Republicans). It's possible, I suppose, that people were so ticked off at Bush, that they voted against the incumbent Republican.

Except that in several of those districts, Bush carried the county.

Here, using the very excellent MPR Campaign 2004 results map, is the state from a presidential point of view:

And here is the state from a legislative point of view:

Theoretically, the results should look roughly the same. They don't, of course. I would guess that what drove the vote on the Legislature was a "big honkin'" budget deficit and the efforts to cut it rather than Iraq. So voters were clearly able to distinguish between issues.

Will they still?

(Update 4:18) -- David Kirchner at The Analyst (this is his speciality), provides these two maps for a closer look.

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Bachmann in the lead

Posted at 11:51 AM on April 4, 2006 by Bob Collins (1 Comments)

According to a Phil Krinkie e-mail newsletter, here's the latest delegate count in the 6th District race:

Michele Bachmann 45% (78 delegates)
Phil Krinkie 30% (52 delegates)
Jim Knoblach 20% (32 delegates)
Jay Esmay 1% (4 delegates)
Undecided 5% (7 delegates)

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In the interest of full disclosure

Posted at 2:23 PM on April 4, 2006 by Bob Collins (37 Comments)

Now that the FEC has decided not to treat bloggers as potential independent expenditures and allow them the freedom to say what they want and do what they want, perhaps it's safe to answer these questions.

I know a lot of other bloggers read Polinaut. So please post in the comments section, your answer to the following questions.

-1- Are you paid in any way by a campaign or candidate?

-2- Do you consult with campaign officials or party officials as to how the content on your site can be most beneficial to a particular candidate or party?

-3- Are you as an individual paid by a campaign or affiliated with an organization or company that has as a client, a particular campaign or political party?

There's nothing wrong, mind you, with either 1 or 2 or 3. I just think it would be interesting to find out what bloggers are independent, and which ones actually are working with or for a campaign.

Besides, throw in your URL and it's a free plug.

FYI, here's my current list of blogs I read several times a day (these are the ones I have in the (only) POLITICS category. :

The Analyst
Backbone Minnesota
Blog of the Moderate Left
Broken Nails
The Carpetbagger Report
Centrisity
Comedy Central - Daily Show Text Headlines
Daily Kos
DFLSenate
The First Ring
Hammerswing75
Kennedy v. The Machine
The Kool Aid Report
Krinkie for Congress
Minnesota Blue
Minnesota Campaign Report
Minnesota Democrats Exposed
Minnesota Republican Watch
Minnesota's in the middle
minvolved.com
MN Publius
Myelectionanalysis.com
Nihilist In Golf Pants
North Star Liberty
North Star Politics
Norwegianity
NPR People: Ken Rudin
People's Republic of Minnesota
Polinaut
PoliPundit
Rambling from the North
Republican Minnesota
Residual Forces
Roll Call
SD63: red life in a district of blue
Session Daily - Minnesota House of Representatives
Shot In The Dark
Swing State Project
Three Way News
Vox Verax
The Wind Beneath the Right Wing
Pollytick in Minnesota
RedState

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It's Greek to me

Posted at 5:00 PM on April 4, 2006 by Bob Collins (1 Comments)

You know how back in Latin I, everyone around you was speaking the tongue with flair... Gaulus tres partes distributo est, rolling off the tongues, while you were still trying to figure out the difference between puela and puelae?

That's how I felt today reading The Analyst, who takes apart the congressional districts to analyze the ticket-splitting. I didn't get any of it until he explained it:

Using just this data, Bush's low approval ratings, and incumbency advantage -- and ignoring a lot of important information (like the fundraising strength of each party's nominees), the 6th jumps out as the most likely pickup opportunity for the DFL provided the president's approval ratings remain poor. Next would be the 2nd, followed by the 1st. Ramstad seems unassailable in the 3rd. Looking at the DFL seats, all four incumbents look very safe indeed. The 7th appears to be a potential pickup opportunity for Republicans whenever Peterson leaves office, since a very large portion of his support has been in precincts that have voted for Bush. (Indeed, Bush won the entire 7th district in both elections.)

That guy is...is... eximius.

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"Lord help the mister who comes between me and my sister"

Posted at 5:18 PM on April 4, 2006 by Bob Collins (1 Comments)

It was a moment at the Capitol somewhat reminiscent of the 2004 campaign when Dick Cheney talked about his lesbian daughter, after Alan Keyes called her a sinner. That pretty much enabled Cheney to get the marriage amendment off the presidential stage when he said it is a subject best left to the states.

It was one of those moments when you got a little glimpse of family dynamic.

Same today when Sen. Michele Bachmann, a candidate in the 6th District congressional race, led the debate at the Senate Judiciary Committee hearing on the amendment.

The "family" part of it came with Helen Lafave sitting in the audience listening to Bachmann detail the threat to the state and children that people like Lafave present. Lafave is gay. She's also Bachmann's stepsister.

She talked to MPR's Tom Scheck and other reporters and said, "I simply wanted to remind Michele that she does have family members that this affects in a very real way," she said. "I have not had any contact with her for a couple of years and she's never discussed this me and I wanted to remind her that she does have family members that this affects."

By the way, here's the entire committee hearing (RealPlayer required)

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Things to do now that UConn blew my bracket

Posted at 5:36 PM on April 4, 2006 by Bob Collins (2 Comments)

One of my regular stops on Planet Politics, Kennedy v. the Machine, (I admit, I like Gary, he seems like a good egg) started a contest today to raise money for the Kennedy campaign. Under it, anyone who goes to the Kennedy site (that's the Kennedy OFFICIAL site and contributes money, goes into a pool to win movie tickets. (I can't remember what). The folks at the law firm where Kennedy v. the Machine is produced would pick the winners.

The postings are all gone off the site now, 'cuz it turned out the offer would be illegal, I guess.

I am told by some folks that know better than me that our proposed fundraising contest for movie tickets as a reward for contributing to the Kennedy campaign may violate state law.

Last time I checked, that wasn’t a good thing.

The reader should note that I am soley responsible for dreaming up this knucklheaded idea — unless it turns out to be legal in which case it was Andy and Doug’s idea.

Regretfully, we have pulled the contest until such time as we get clarification.

It falls under the the definition of "lottery." Specifically: prize, chance, consideration. Remove any one of those , and it's not a lottery anymore. So if they open the contest up to people who don't donate money (thus the popularity of the phrase "no purchase necessary.") it becomes legal again.

Heck of a creative idea, though.

How'd the NCAA brackets work out?

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