What's going on here...

Posted at 2:37 PM on March 29, 2006 by Bob Collins (2 Comments)

Another candidate has dropped out of a race in Minnesota, after barely getting into it.

Sharon Marko has bagged the 2nd District race against Coleen Rowley.

"The obstacles seem insurmountable," she said in a news release. She said she could not spend the time she needed on the congressional campaign and still serve her legislative district.

She apparently is going to honor her decision not to run again for the Legislature.

Translation: She can't beat John Kline.

That seat is moving closer to the "safe" category for John Kline. The DFL appears in complete disarray in the 2nd.

Here is MPR reporter Laura McCallum's interview with Marko in its RealAudio glory.

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Comments (2)

Mr. Collins, I must strenuously object to your conclusion that "The DFL appears in complete disarray in the 2nd." Quite the opposite: obviously Coleen Rowley is running far too strong a campaign for Marko to have any hope of claiming the DFL endorsement.

Kline's favorite talking point about Rowley is that her campaign is disorganized, but I am dismayed to see a supposedly neutral reporter (Bob notes: I'm not a reporter.) repeating it. Here are some facts:

1) She has raised over $200,000 so far, putting her in the top tier of Democratic challengers nationally.
(Bob notes. This is incorrect. She has reported to the FEC through the end of 2005 that she has raised $170,000. She may have raised $30,000 since then but you're comparing that number to other Democratic challengers who have only reported through the end of '05. You can't do that. And when you say "top tier," what exactly do you mean?)

2) Rowley's internal polling shows Kline's re-elect numbers at an anemic 34%.

3) The Rowley campaign has more than 600 committed volunteers throughout the district (including myself, obviously).

(Bob notes: And I don't question that. I don't question your fervor, nor Rowley's. But the DFL has not been happy with her efforts and they got someone to jump in the race who lasted 5 weeks before realizing she couldn't win. Marko wasn't talking about beating Rowley; she was talking about beating Kline.)

If any of Sharon Marko's supporters are reading this, I encourage them to go to Coleen's web site and sign on to help defeat Kline. Or if you prefer, drop me an email, and I'll be glad to discuss my reasons for supporting Coleen. If pundits stop pushing the baseless "Rowley's campaign is in complete disarray" meme and if all those hungry for change in MN-02 join together, Rowley will defeat Kline handily in November.

(Bob notes: It may happen. I'm not saying it can't. It's only April (almost) and what happens depends on folks like you. But that's different from my point that the DFL leadership gots itself all messed up in the 2nd District. They got Marko to run and then she bagged the race. That makes them look bad. That's my reference to the DFL, not the individual candidate)

Posted by David Bailey | March 29, 2006 10:14 PM

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Wow, you're making me work! But I appreciate a challenge on the facts; I only wish more folks questioned what others say on blogs.

My basis for the fundraising statement (number 1) is this article:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=aEOK97d0aG7c&refer=us

It states that as of year-end 2005, 41 Democratic challengers had broken the $100,000 barrier. I believe that Democrats are challenging a bit more than 180 Republican-held seats --- some of those are vacancies, but some have multiple Democrats vying for them --- so right there we can make a rough estimate that Coleen was in the top 25% for fundraising as of 2005 year-end.

But of course, she had actually raised substantially more than $100,000, so her ranking is substantially higher. It's impossible to know exactly where she ranks without examing hundreds of FEC filings, but top 10% is probably a fair guess.

So I really was using FEC filings as the basis for my statement --- the $200,000 figure was reached in February and was announced in an email to volunteers.

Sorry I mis-stated your role as "reporter". You did such a great job with the GOP interactive CD-ROM stuff, I just assumed you must be an investigative journalist (and of course I never bothered to read your bio).

Posted by David Bailey | March 30, 2006 8:16 PM

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