Polinaut: January 2006 Archive

Follow the Money

Posted at 10:21 AM on January 4, 2006 by Bob Collins

The Institute for Money in State Politics is out with a report looking at the dollar effect on the election of 2004 and the Upper Midwest comes up relatively clean, at least if you believe cleanliness is in inverse proportion to the number of dollars involved. And, of course, the showing is a comparison to other states so I'll leave it to you to decide whether it shows the region has the right idea, or the rest of the country is a cesspool of money-induced corruption that would make even a pig smell fresh.

Among the conclusions of the study is political contributions to state-level candidates is growing, spurred on mostly by party contributions. It also shows that "when combined, money and incumbency are nearly unstoppable." And contributors to legislative candidates favored the party that controlled the legislature after the 2004 elections.

North Dakota and South Dakota were two of only seven states where the House candidates all raises less than $10,000 on average.

Minnesota was also one of the lowest states in the number of dollars raised per voter ($2.83), with Nebraska ($1.70) and North Dakota ($1.13) the only two states under $2 per voter.

The full report (in pdf form) can be found here.

"Minnesota Democrats Exposed" exposed?

Posted at 11:37 AM on January 4, 2006 by Bob Collins (1 Comments)

The person who runs the blog, Minnesota Democrats Exposed and Blois Olson, one of the publishers of the newsletter Politics in Minnesota have been going back and forth for the last week or so over MDE's claim that Olson, who runs a communications and public relations business, tried to get a contract with 2nd District congressional candidate Coleen Rowley's campaign. MDE claimed when that didn't work out, Olson began badmouthing the Rowley campaign, mostly in an Associated Press story about the campaign against incumbent John Kline.

Now Olson has filed a defamation lawsuit against MDE's author, who has been anonymous up until now.

Coincidentally -- or perhaps not -- MDE says it will have a "major announcement" at noon today. Polinaut believes he will reveal himself as Michael Broadkorb, the former communications director for the Minnesota Republican Party under Ron Eibensteiner. When the GOP dumped Eibensteiner, Brodkorb went too. (Update: Brodkorb confirms he is MDE.)

The "disclaimer for liberals" on the MDE site says "Minnesota Democrats Exposed is not created, endorsed, sponsored, or authorized by any political party, candidate, or candidate's committee."

But it sure comes close, apparently.

Of course, anyone can sue anyone, but the effect of a lawsuit against a partisan blog might have some far-reaching consequences.

Are blogs journalism? Are they immune from having to reveal the source of their information? Is it a good idea -- legalities aside -- to have an entire "journalistic" enterprise emanate from anonymity.

I guess we're about to find out.

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The new issue

Posted at 12:21 PM on January 5, 2006 by Bob Collins

The obvious gubernatorial campaign issues are coming at us fast and furious this week. Earlier this week, Gov. Pawlenty unveiled his proposals to curb illegal immigration, and then his chief rival, Attorney General Mike Hatch trumped him on Wednesday with his call for an end to the selling of driver's license data.

Pawlenty responded quickly to Hatch's news conference by saying, "we agree we can work together and get this done, but to somehow suggest that this is an issue that has popped up in the past week or month is ridiculous."

So today, Gov. Pawlenty is holding a news conference. The subject: identity theft. An issue that has not popped up in the past week or month either.

Pawlenty's focus also appears to counter that of Hatch, who released his proposals in December on identity theft and privacy.

Who'll corner the "anti-identity-theft" vote? It seems to be part of a nationwide strategy given the number of Legislatures going back to work with identity theft the battleground. In Colorado, Republicans are trying to get a little traction with the issue. Legislatures in Hawaii, Arizona, Florida, and Maine are among the states where the issue will occupy the time of lawmakers.

Is it a slam-dunk campaign winner? Congress, and no one monitors the ability of a bill to help you get re-elected more than congressmen, got nowhere with the issue in 2005. But legislatures and statewide candidates are using ahead of Congress, because they're closer to "real" people.

Those people, according to an ABC News poll give a rip in increasing numbers. But as of last year, only 23 percent give a rip about it "a lot."

Best to keep looking.

Doran's partner

Posted at 3:12 PM on January 5, 2006 by Bob Collins

Gubernatorial candidate Kelly Doran will announce his running mate at three news conferences on Monday. We presume the choice will be someone who could help a non-politician navigate the, you know, politics of it all.

While Polinaut has no inside clue (Polinaut is very proudly on the outside) on Doran's choice (and only passing interest), Polinaut is not averse to having you speculate via the comments section. Minnesota Democrats Exposed says it'll be Independent Party state Sen. Sheila Kiscaden.

Still, the two front-runners for governor in Minnesota are going at it this week on issues (see below). Is this the right time to be talking about lieutenant governor choices?

Battleground II

Posted at 8:45 AM on January 6, 2006 by Bob Collins

Election year 2004 was a chance for Minnesotans to see what it's like being a resident of New Hampshire or Iowa, what with constant visits from George Bush and John Kerry in search of the state's electoral votes that were sure to make or break the election. OK, so we were irrelevant by the time November rolled around, but you have to admit it was still nice being chased.

Maybe we should get used to it. David Broder has a column about the importance of Minnesota and several other states in 2006, as the nation looks toward 2008.

Broder says these states -- headed by Ohio -- are important since Republicans have solidified their power in the South and Democrats have done the same in the Northeast. But out here in fickle flyover country, we haven't decided to go steady yet.

THIS N'THAT

Poll spells bad news for GOP

Posted at 3:14 PM on January 6, 2006 by Bob Collins

In an ominous election-year sign for Republicans, Americans are leaning sharply toward giving Democrats control of Congress, an AP-Ipsos poll finds. Democrats are favored 49 percent to 36 percent.

Another punch in the gut

Posted at 8:37 AM on January 8, 2006 by Bob Collins

Some things you can ignore. Democrats criticizing Republicans and Republicans criticizing Democrats is about as noteworthy as the rising sun (not that Minnesotans would know anything about the sun these days). But on the heels of the blistering Wall Street Journal attack last week against Republicans, New York Times columnist David Brooks tackles the party he's defended more often than not.

"For God's sake, Republicans, show a little moral revulsion," Brooks says.

Let's face it: the details of the Abramoff scandal are too complex and require more attention than the average voter has time or patience for. So this sort of rhetoric among conservative commentators is a gut punch to the '06 strategy.

There's no crying in politics

Posted at 9:11 AM on January 9, 2006 by Bob Collins (1 Comments)

Last week's food fight between consultant Blois Olson and Minnesota Democrats Exposed renewed the debate over the role of blogs in political coverage and in the dissemination of information in general. In short, it spawned a whole new round of "mainstream media is dead" articles and columns.

When you talk to someone about this concept, you hear over and over again one example: Powerline's exposing of Dan Rather. Folks, that was a year ago -- a lifetime in mainstream media -- and the blogosphere is going to have to do more than crank out a great story once every 12 months or so.

But in the drumbeat -- mostly in blogs -- of the death of mainstream media, a key point is missing. Even the bloggers don't really believe it. Why? Take MDE for example. Throughout last week -- one of the more strident weeks even by blogging standards -- MDE constantly cited mainstream media coverage of the spat as validation, and the vast majority of links are usually to mainstream media. Huh?

Secondly, if the political blogosphere is going to be nothing more than partisan hacking -- about as informative as a piece of campaign literature -- it's illogical to think it can change anyone's mind.
Do a lot of Democrats really visit Red State? Do a lot of Republicans really visit Daily Kos?

Perhaps what is most threatened in mainstream media isn't its bread-and-butter (coverage), but its editorial pages. Perhaps what is most threatened isn't mainstream media per se, it's civil discourse and intelligent exchanges of ideas.

On Saturday, the guy who writes the Blog House column in the Star Tribune had it right when he said "blogs should strive to be something more. The mainstream media get rapped on the knuckles a lot, and rightly so. This new forum for investigative journalism and political discourse should be utilized for those purposes, rather than partisan hatchet jobs."

Blogging is a medium still in its infancy. But that doesn't mean it can't grow up... just a bit.

Wouldn't this be a great day to start?

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What's up in Rochester?

Posted at 12:44 PM on January 9, 2006 by Bob Collins (1 Comments)

I mentioned last week that there was a danger in Kelly Doran choosing now to announce his running mate, especially in the context of Mike Hatch and Tim Pawlenty rolling out a bunch of issues last week. But they got only a little traction (so far) with their announcements and here it is Monday, a relatively slow news day and Kelly Doran, who the average voter may never have heard of, is getting a fair degree of lead-story treatment for selecting a running mate, who they also may not have heard of.

Just chatting with some of the political gurus here (Mike Mulcahy, for one), Doran's choice seems to indicate he'll be forgoing the honoring of the state party endorsement and head for the September primary.

That also eliminates any possibility that his running mate, Sen. Sheila Kiscaden, can hold onto her District 30 seat should Doran's bid fail. The primary, of course, falls well after the state's filing deadline.

DFLers have done pretty well picking up and holding Senate seats lately, but getting Rochester's seat will be difficult. In the three-way race in 2002, Kiscaden bested Republican Lynn Zaffke by just 3 percent of the vote. DFLer Rich Wright was 23 percent off the pace.

Potential Republican candidates for the seat? How about former Rep. Bill Kuisle, who lost a close race to Andi Welti in 30B? Or former Rep. Carla Nelson, who lost out to Tina Liebling for the 30A House seat in 2004?

This election will be a good indication of what's going on politically in Rochester, where DFLers made remarkable strides in 2004.

As for DFL candidates. Kim Norton, who almost knocked off Fran Bradley in District 29 in 2004, would be a possibility. But Bradley is retiring and that seat is already available without having to move.

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More jockeying

Posted at 2:02 PM on January 9, 2006 by Bob Collins

State Sen. Sharon Marko, DFL-Cottage Grove, has announced she will not run for re-election this year. That gives some emphasis to the rumor that's been floating around that she has been encouraged by DFLers to run against 2nd District congressman John Kline. Coleen Rowley has run into criticism for her campaign against Kline.

Rep. Katie Sieben will run for Marko's seat.

Meanwhile, Shot in the Dark reports the Jim Knoblach campaign is claiming an endorsement from former 6th District congressional candidate Cheri Pierson Yecke.

Do as I say, not as I.... say

Posted at 8:17 AM on January 10, 2006 by Bob Collins

Here's a little behind-the-scenes glimpse at organizing the Campaign 2006 section on our Web site.

One of the most popular features -- oh heck, it's the most popular feature in the history of MPR News' online efforts -- of our campaign coverage is the Select A Candidate tool.

The original idea behind Select A Candidate came years ago when voters in Minnesota tabbed a candidate for an important position in the executive branch, apparently because of her Scandanavian name. Even her political party subsequently disavowed her.

Cleary there was a disconnect between the information voters had available to them, and how much information they processed. And so the original Campaign XXXX site was born, with significant audio files, stories, and background on each candidate.

But how to get voters to the site? This being the Internet and all, we tried to make it fun. So we developed Select A Candidate, which allowed (and still allows) people to hold a mirror up to their political face, see what candidate appeared to match, and then -- hopefully -- encourage voters to end up on those individual candidate pages where solid information was waiting.

It worked. It worked great. The traffic levels indicated that people were choosing to be informed.

And now we're pulling together the next version of Select A Candidate and are at the phase where we identify the issues (at least at this point) and document the candidates' positions on those issues.

Simple, eh? I wish.

Let's take incumbents, for example. How do you document a position? Do you pay attention to what a candidate says, or how he/she votes? It's not always easy. Take the defense spending bill, which had the amendment to it to allow drilling in ANWR. Let's say one of the questions on Select A Candidate pertains to a candidate's position on ANWR? Now let's take, for example, candidate Mark Kennedy, who has made clear his opposition to ANWR, but voted for the bill. So is he against it? Or for it?

For those of you who say that Select A Candidate should indicate he is against it because he said so, how does that give a voter any sense of how that translates to the political process? Presumably, voters choose a candidate on an issue because of action, not words.

For those of you who say Select A Candidate should indicate he is for drilling in ANWR, because he voted for the bill, turn it around. Take a candidate who voted against the bill because of ANWR, and now change the question around to defense spending, that the candidate says he was actally for. Does he/she now get listed as opposing more defense spending?

In the Minnesota Legislature, a lot of votes against K-12 funding last year came from legislators who wanted more spending. Should they be listed as opposing more spending, even if the bill they were voting on called for it?

This dichotomy can work in a number of ways. We saw it in the anti-Max Cleland political ads in the Georgia Senate race when Cleland voted against a bill setting up the Department of Homeland Security because of some, he says, unacceptable amendments, and then couldn't withstand a withering barrage of political ads from Saxby Chambliss, with images of Osama bin Laden with headlines tumpeting his opposition to the bill. There's certainly debate over why Cleland lost, but little over the difficulty of saying exactly what a candidate position is.

In a way, candidates do themselves no favor in allowing unrelated amendments in legislation. On the other hand, it makes it very difficult to hold candidates accountable for their positions and their votes. This makes doing so the greatest challenge facing us.

By the way, if you'd like to work on the Select A Candidate project (helping research votes, etc.), drop me a line. No, it doesn't pay. A more informed electoral is our reward.

Lynch to run for Kiscaden's seat

Posted at 10:51 AM on January 11, 2006 by Bob Collins

Rochester School Board member Ann Lynch announced today she will seek the Senate seat being vacated by Sheila Kiscaden. Kiscaden has joined the Kelly Doran gubernatorial campaign as the lt. gov candidate.

Kiscaden was at the news conference to endorse Lynch, who is a DFLer.

Yes, there really is a Ford Bell

Posted at 2:16 PM on January 11, 2006 by Bob Collins

Senate candidate Ford Bell hasn't been getting much attention. The Pipestone County Star, however, gave him the once-over today.

THIS AND THAT

The survey says...

Posted at 4:10 PM on January 11, 2006 by Bob Collins

Two surveys are out today that have caught Polinaut's eye. The first, from the Pew Center reports few people are paying attention to either the Abramoff story or the Alito nomination.

It also reports a "growing Democratic advantage" on Iraq and domestic concerns. Forty-one percent of those surveyed believe Democrats are the best party to handle the nation's problems -- with a high score of 50% on Iraq (vs. 31% for the GOP) and a low score of 34 percent on security/terrorism. The latter -- as it's usually been...was the high mark for Republicans (52%).

This presents a difficult situation for Republicans. Clearly a strategy aimed at increasing security/terrorism as an issue would benefit them. But Iraq is now the Republican weakness and the GOP has linked terrorism and Iraq so much since 2003 that drawing a distinction now will certainly be a challenge.

Part of that survey, by the way, said 81 percent of those surveyed think it's "common" for lobbyists to bribe congressmen. Given the high incumbency rate, we presume those surveyed don't believe their congressman is on the take.

Meanwhile, A Quinnipiac poll shows little harm to Sen. Joe Lieberman for his support of the war in Iraq. But they're holding it against President Bush.

The new poll shows that Connecticut voters strongly oppose the war and give President George Bush low approval ratings. Sixty-one percent of voters disapprove of the job Bush is doing, compared to 35 percent who approve.

Entenza in the crosshairs

Posted at 5:44 PM on January 11, 2006 by Bob Collins

DFLer Matt Entenza, who is running for attorney general, gets roughed up pretty well in the City Pages article, United He Stands. Specifically, the article suggests Entenza, as attorney general, would have a light approach to health care organizations, since his wife is an executive with United Health Group.

Minnesota Democrats Exposed says Rep. Al Juhnke e-mailed the article to members of the DFL caucus, suggesting that Juhnke wants Entenza removed as House Minority Leader as long as he's going to be spending time running for attorney general. Just for the record, Juhnke, and every other state represenative (unless they've chosen not to), will also be running for office in November.

Back on Wednesday

Posted at 10:30 AM on January 14, 2006 by Bob Collins

I'm away in New England until the middle of the week so there won't be any Polinaut updates in that time. I don't have a consistent way of connection. I do have a few e-mails here from folks who have attached comments and they didn't appear. I wasn't aware the team had established a system where comments are "approved," so that's the problem. I'll get it nailed down when I get back. In the meantime, hold that thought.

Borene in Senate district 41 race

Posted at 7:08 AM on January 18, 2006 by Bob Collins

What's this? A DFLer running for state Senate with a Web site showing him standing in camoflauge in Iraq, with a weapon in his hands? This maybe the new breed of DFLer surfacing in Republican territory -- the state Senate's 41st District -- Edina.

Andrew Borene is described "with experience as a U.S. Marine Intelligence Officer during major combat operations in Iraq and as an investment banker serving local governments during the 1990s, Andrew is a straight talker who believes that we need creative, optimistic leadership in our community."

OK, we's got the stump speech down, how about the issues. He says he's for "fiscal discipline without compromising our way of life." He opposes property tax increases for education and state-run casino ideas. He says he'll work to allow access to affordable health care (no mention of MinnesotaCare's future).

As for the coming battle over same-sex marriage, there is this on the subject of faith and religion. "I am a person of faith and I support the Constitutional separation of Church and State. I do not believe any one denomination should comprise a political platform and I will work to ensure that all Minnesotans continue to have the freedom to practice and administer their own faith as they see fit, without government interference."

I think that means he'll be against the bill. We'll see.

Sen. Geoff Michel currently has the seat.

Hutchinson to announce

Posted at 11:49 AM on January 18, 2006 by Bob Collins

Peter Hutchinson will announce his candidacy for governor next Wednesday morning at the Minneapolis Hilton.

Briefing - January 19, 2006

Posted at 7:33 AM on January 19, 2006 by Bob Collins

Making the rounds on a Thursday morning:

Kennedy in trouble? Wetterling out?

Posted at 3:45 PM on January 19, 2006 by Bob Collins (1 Comments)

The political wags are having a field day today with news that Patty Wetterling has scheduled a news conference to discuss her "future plans." Usually, that's code for "I'm dropping out." If true, it's lousy timing. A Zogby poll out this afternoon might suggest she's the frontrunner in the race, except few people seem to believe that.

Still Rep. Mark Kennedy's performance in these polls is not inspiring.

The Zogby poll shows Patty Wetterling over Kennedy now 50.8-to-39.9 percent. Amy Klobuchar has a 48.6-to-42.8 lead over Kennedy. That tends to mirror a Rasmussen poll from a month ago.

Even Ford Bell, who's gotten very little traction -- and very little attention in this race, is close to Kennedy -- 43.3-to-42.8 percent.

If a virtual unknown is knocking off Kennedy, it could mean two things. (a) Those surveyed really don't like Kennedy or (b) The poll might be bogus. It's unlikely that Ford Bell's message has resonated to the point where it's elevated him to a competitive state, since few people have heard his message.

Some of those dismissing the poll have suggested it's an online poll and, thus, has little scientific value. But, it's not. Here's the Zogby methodology. Zogby does provide online polling for Web sites. But this particular survey is not an online poll. Is the survey accurate? Who knows? As with most surveys, take them at face value and look for trends. If a bunch of polls start to say the same thing, then maybe it's time to sit up and pay attention.

Minnesota GOP boss Ron Carey put out a release that said:

"On Election Day in 2004, John Zogby confidently predicted that John Kerry would defeat President George W. Bush and get at least 311 votes in the Electoral College. In 2002, Zogby had Walter Mondale defeating Norm Coleman by six points in his final poll.

The thing with polls is they don't predict anything. They only tell you what a bunch of people who were surveyed happened to think on the day they were surveyed. Polling firms strive to have those surveyed be representative of the larger group (that is: us), but even then it only represents what the larger group thinks on a particular date they were asked. Nothing more.

(Update 1/20)- I checked on the Zogby poll in the '04 elections and the last one appears to have been taken on behalf of Reuters on 10/29-31 2004 and at that time showed Bush/Cheney with a 1% lead over Kerry. A Zogby poll two weeks before that showed Kerry narrowing his lead, but still trailing Bush by 2%. A further reading of Carey's release shows that Carey isn't disputing Zogby's polling, just John Zogby's opinion. The methodology of Zogby's polling in the final weeks appears to be fairly solid, actually. (End update)

Kennedy's campaign said today that with the news that's been about for the past six months, and Kennedy being a Republican, being behind in the polls now isn't "the worst case scenario."

But what of Wetterling? If she were to drop out, a run in the 6th District is the obvious solution since the DFL is putting up very little fight there, with only Elwyn Tinklenberg carrying the DFL banner. And since she had a respectable showing in the district in her race against Kennedy in 2004, one would think she'd be in a strong position against the GOP.

In the gubernatorial race, Mike Hatch has a slight lead over Tim Pawlenty. But Pawlenty has slight leads over challengers Steve Kelley and Becky Lourey.

Meanwhile, Rasmussen Reports is out with a poll today in the race for governor of Pennsylvania showing Republican Lynn Swann, the former receiver for the Pittsburgh Steelers, narrowly leading Democratic Governor Ed Rendell 45 percent to 43 percent.

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As Waverly goes, so goes the 2nd?

Posted at 7:45 AM on January 20, 2006 by Bob Collins

Given the increasing number of polls showing voters are noodling on the idea of taking "it" out on Republican incumbents, one wonders whether there's pressure on the DFL in the 2nd District where Coleen Rowley is taking on incumbent John Kline. Rowley has not done well in fundraising and her message, thusfar, has focused on her expertise -- the September 11th terrorist attacks. And some DFLers are frustrated with the status of the race, to the point that state Sen. Sharon Marko is rumored to be ready to jump in against Kline.

On Wednesday, Rowley was speaking in ... Waverly, Iowa, telling 50 who gathered at a dinner at Wartburg College (she's a '77 grad), "radical Republicans have hijacked the party, and the 2006 election is the time to stop their efforts."

Myelectionanalysis.com notes:

don’t have this race on the “watch list” yet, though some have suggested it should be. This turn of events only makes me more confident in my decision. A nasty primary fought over the war is the last thing the Democrats need.

THIS N' THAT

Jeffers as Libertarian candidate

Posted at 12:29 PM on January 20, 2006 by Bob Collins

Sue Jeffers, who has made a bit of a name for herself fighting a smoking ban in Minneapolis, announces her candidacy for governor on Monday. I just finished the Sue Jeffers candidacy page on our Campaign 2006 site. MPR's Capitol reporter, Tom Scheck, talked to Jeffers on Thursday and the audio of that conversation is posted as well on that page.

Wetterling withdraws

Posted at 3:13 PM on January 20, 2006 by Bob Collins

Here's the announcement (RealAudio).

Here's the story.

Letting the blogging begin!

MnPublius has an interesting take, noting that Betty McCollum was on the stage, and Mike Ciresi and Betty McCollum are close and appeared to suggest that McCollum wouldn't endorse Wetterling endorsing Amy Klobuchar if Ciresi were likely to jump in the race at some point.

Minnesota Democrats Exposed says Wetterling and her campaign manager's stories don't add up. One says the decision was made last night. The other says it was made a week ago.

At Kennedy vs. the Machine there's this analysis:

With Mike Ciresi increasingly looking like he’d observe the race from the sidelines, Wetterling was one financial quarter away from irrelevance. And while the fourth quarter numbers aren’t out yet, one can easily surmise Patty either lost money or only kept her head above water.

The Minnesota Republican Party says :

"Patty Wetterling has been mentioned as a potential running mate for Mike Hatch, but it's hard to see how a liberal idealist like Patty Wetterling and her supporters could stomach a well-known political opportunist like Mike Hatch."

And the DFL counters with a press release tying Mark Kennedy tightly to the White House, attempting to refute reported claims from Kennedy of his independence.

In other words, situation normal on the political planet as the week ends.

The survey says...... or does it?

Posted at 8:49 AM on January 21, 2006 by Bob Collins

Poking around some more, looking back at the last few polls of the 2004 presidential campaign in Minnesota.

Just for kicks, here are the final polls for that race.

Zogby (November 1)
Bush 47.0%
Kerry 49.0%
(Margin of error: +- 4.1%)

Star Tribune (10/26-10/29)
Bush 41%
Kerry 49%
(Margin of error: unavailable)

MPR/Pioneer Press (10/27 -10/29)
Bush 48%
Kerry 47%
(Margin of error: +-4)

Looks like two out of three were within the margin of error. I don't have the Strib's MOE, but I'm guessing it would've been around 4, so that's the only poll that could've reliably (as reliable as polls can be) been said to indicate Kerry with a lead outside the MOE.

Final results:

Kerry 51.1%
Bush 47.6

A few weeks before, Gary Gilson of the Minnesota News Council invited Strib pollsters and bosses, a few political scribes (we ended up just being there for props), and opponents of the Strib polling methodology, to tape a show to be broadcast on the Minneapolis cable TV system.

The critics provided results of Strib polling and then compared it with election results and said, "see, the polls were wrong." It was not exactly a high moment for the science of statistics and the teaching thereof.

Many of the complaints about the methodology mirrored some of the complaints about this week's Zogby poll. That is, since they were "wrong" about the results of the race, they were, well, wrong.

I don't know whether the Zogby poll this week is right or wrong because there's no possible way to verify it one way or the other other than examining the methodology and finding its weakness. But nobody did that this week, rather the results of previous polls were judged based on the final results of the race -- a judgement that only seems to work if you don't know the methodology nor the limitations of polling data in the first place.

I'll admit that a poll close to an election, is likely to be a better indication of what might happen in the election than a poll one month out, or two months, or seven months. But that doesn't really change the science much. It's still a bad idea to ask a poll to do something it's not designed to do. If it's cloudy today, will it be cloudy Tuesday? You know, I'm not convinced that's the best application of available science.

John Zogby is a weird guy. His explanation for the disconnect between the survey in the days prior to the Mondale-Coleman election were simply bizarre. But let's face it: with a candidate dying days before the election, and the pep rally/memorial service a week earlier, the electorate was simply too volatile to get an accurate reading, and every pollster should've realized that. The story that should have come out from polling data in that race (and did) was that anything could happen on that Tuesday.

But I also have to admit it bothers me -- a lot -- that people who appear to criticize poll methodology, do so by criticizing poll results vs. election results as if the polls represent a snapshot of the future rather than a snapshot of the survey date.

One could just as easily point out the accuracy of Zogby by noting that in Zogby's last polls in the 14 battleground states in 2004, Zogby's results matched the Election Day presidential results in 12 of the 14 states (he missed Iowa and Florida, with only Iowa falling outside the margin of error).

But that -- as the man once said -- would be wrong (too).

I think every decent pollster I know of, outlines his/her poll methodology. That's fair game in analyzing a poll's data. But nobody took that on this past week. Why not?

Again, I'm not defending Zogby's poll numbers, but the methodology is sitting out there to be examined and if the poll is flawed, drop a line in the comments section and point out the methodology flaw, will ya?

But before we go too much further in methodology vs. predictability, here's an oldie-but-a-goodie from Midmorning from September 16, 2004. Understanding election polls. (RealAudio required).

The best sermon this weekend

Posted at 3:04 PM on January 21, 2006 by Bob Collins

The best sermon this weekend comes from Charlie Cook. There's a little blame for everybody, but he pretty much gives the Internet a well-deserved shot:

The Internet has simply taken the hostilities to new heights. Despite being one of the most amazing technological developments of the past 100 years, it is also an electronic version of the inside door of a public bathroom stall. Libelous accusations can be posted anonymously. And information that is inaccurate or taken totally out of context can get widely disseminated instantaneously.

Bulding on a theme

Posted at 8:04 AM on January 22, 2006 by Bob Collins

Ford Bell is trying to get Amy Klobuchar to debate him. In a speech to a Central Committee meeting in Lakeville on Saturday, Bell took quite a few shots at his own party.

The junior (sic) Senator from New York, Chuck Schumer, has sent a clear message to you, the grassroots of the DFL, that you don’t matter in the process of choosing a U.S. Senator.

Chuck Schumer is telling you, the heart and soul of the DFL, to sit down, shut up, we’re from Washington and we know best.

In calling for debates with Amy Klobuchar, Bell also delivered a jab at Klobuchar that mirrored the comments of Republican Mark Kennedy after Patty Wetterling dropped out and threw her support to Klobuchar.

Are we the party that speaks truth with conviction, or the party of safe, poll-driven generalities?

Are we still a home-grown, grassroots, activist party, or should we be a top-down, wholly-owned subsidiary of Chuck Schumer and the political leadership in Washington?

Just for the record, here's what Kennedy said on Friday.

"In annointing Miss Klobuchar, the Democrats have staked themselves to a candidate who has been unwilling to tell voters where she stands on the key issues. Issue after issue after issue, you see Amy trying to hide behind poll-tested sound bites," he said.

The audience was the state Central Committee, the very definition of party insiders, but the target was obviously outside the room. Bell has established the groundwork to run based on not being a DFL insider. In the speech he railed against the fact that "the drumbeat of the inside club has been that the DFL needs to mimic the Republicans."

Then, a few paragraphs later, he mimicked one.

And you thought Amy Klobuchar's problems were over.

The reaction?

Flash at Centricity said "I simply don't know why he thought those remarks added value to his candidacy. I know they have now made my decision much easier."

Kennedy vs. The Machine was unusually mum, preferring to note instead that Bell, like Kennedy, called for debates.

DFL Senate posted the speech without comment.

It'll be interesting to see over the next few hours if another reading of the speech reveals to the readers that Ford Bell's gloves delivered Mark Kennedy's jabs, and initiates any discussion of how that might change the road to the September primary.

Crowd estimates as a political thermometer

Posted at 8:49 AM on January 23, 2006 by Bob Collins

Rallies at the Capitol seem to happen all the time. Most of them are ignored, a few -- like Sunday's anti-abortion rally -- are a good chance to take the temperature of various movements to see if political "clout" (whatever that is) is waxing or waning.

The coverage of yesterday's rally seems to indicate a groundwell to limit or overturn legalized abortion. And maybe that's true; abortion opponents have certainly made legislative gains in the last few years.

But on this issue and with these opponents, I can't tell the nature of the fervor based on the rallies, or more specifically, the attendance at those rallies. The numbers simply aren't adding up to what the eye sees.

A read of the organizers' estimates suggests twice as many showed up at Sunday's rally as did in 2003. Is that true?

Here's 2003, in which the crowd estimate was 3,000.:

Here's 2004, in which the crowd estimate was 2,000.:

and here's 2006 ( I don't think MPR covered the 2005 rally), with the crowd estimate of 6,000 people.

Bloggers or blowhards?

Posted at 4:28 PM on January 23, 2006 by Bob Collins

Bloggers are changing politics in America. Don't believe me? Just ask a blogger.

But is there anybody who's not blogging who thinks so? K. David Glover, writing in the National Journal magazine says "yes." The Rise of Blogs does a decent job of chronicling examples of how blogging is now changing policy; a refreshing change from the days when "we brought down Dan Rather" was the offered proof.

Briefing - January 24, 2006

Posted at 6:31 AM on January 24, 2006 by Bob Collins (3 Comments)

All sorts of neat political factoids today.

First, gubernatorial candidate Mike Hatch is at the center of two stories. The Star Tribune has an article with Hatch suggesting he'll go to the primary even if he doesn't win the endorsement. Not surprising since Hatch has never been the darling of DFL insiders. It's been 1990 since the DFL endorsed candidate has beaten an incumbent in Minnesota and most of the quotes in the story suggested the DFL has recognized that endorsing a candidate who has not pledged to honor the party's endorsement is not a crime against nature. It is, however, an admission that the endorsement doesn't mean anything anymore.

The St. Cloud Times is reporting that Patty Wetterling has met with Hatch about a spot on the ticket. She also denies being pressured to drop out of the Senate race by supporters of Amy Klobuchar.

That was some kind of stinging rebuke -- delivered in a judicial sort of way -- from Russell Anderson yesterday, the new chief justice of the Minnesota Supreme Court. It came at his swearing-in ceremony, hours after the U.S. Supreme Court refused to overturn a lower court ruling that allows judicial candidates in Minnesota to seek contributions, and participate in party politics like any other politician.

"Justice in Minnesota is not for sale," Anderson declared. If you didn't hear it, just click here (Real Audio required).

Some blogs ripped Polinaut last week for daring to cite a Zogby poll, so we have no clue how they'll like his methodology this time (of course, we don't know how they liked his methodology last week either since they wouldn't discuss it), but a new poll shows a sharp drop in the number of people favoring legalized abortion in the U.S.

The survey shows that 52% favor abortion, including 10% who saying they believe it should be available, but that the government should not pay for it.

Forty-three percent oppose abortion, though most of those believe there should be exceptions in the cases of rape, incest, or when the pregnancy posed a grave threat to the life of the mother. A total of 9% said they “always oppose” abortion.

The blog DFL Senate has a humorous note about the National Republican Senatorial Committee breakdown of Senate races in the country. Click on the map for Minnesota and you get this message:

Senate Races 2006 No information is available at this time or there is no Republican challenger.

Which is odd since the blog Kennedy vs. the Machine reports on Liddy Dole's assessment of the Minnesota Senate race. Stay tuned. Maybe there is a candidate the NRSC doesn't know about yet.

Minnesota Democrats Exposed carries details of a breakfast GOP boss Ron Carey hosted this morning with Republican bloggers.

Ranum out

Posted at 9:15 AM on January 24, 2006 by Bob Collins

Sen. Jane Ranum, DFL-Minneapolis, is the latest Minnesota legislator to announce she won't run for re-election.

(Update 10 a.,m.) Rep. Dan Larson, DFL-Bloomington, says he'll run for Ranum's seat. That could put the House 63B seat in play, but Larson is holding open the possibility of a re-election campaign to the seat if he doesn't get the DFL endorsement in his bid for Ranum's seat.

(Update 11:53 a.m.) With Ranum's exit from the Legislature, here's the list of changes from the squad that ended the 2005 session. Unless otherwise noted, those on the list will be involved in the 2006 session.

(Update 2:15 p.m.) - They're dropping like flies at the Capitol. Rep. Scott Newman, R- Hutchinson, says he will not run for re-election, he wants to run for judge, although he hasn't said which seat. His release today is an example of unleashing judicial candidates to say what's on their mind. Newman outlined several cases decided by Minnesota courts that he thought were wrong, including a Ramsey County judge's order on maintaining core services during the government shutdown last year. From a media perspective, judicial campaigns might actually be worth paying attention to now.

SENATE
Mark Ourada (R)* - Buffalo
Dave Kleis (R)* - St. Cloud
David Gaither (R)* - Plymouth
Sen. Bob Kierlin (R) - Winona
Sen. John Hottinger (D) - Mankato
Sen. Sharon Marko (D) - Cottage Grove
Sen. Jane Ranum (D) - Minneapolis

HOUSE
Rep. Joe Opatz (D) - St. Cloud
Rep. Matt Entenza (D) - St. Paul
Rep. Jeff Johnson (R) - Plymouth
Rep. Jerry Dempsey (R) - Red Wing
Rep. Ruth Johnson (D) - St. Paul
Rep. Scott Newman (R) - Hutchinson
Rep. Fran Bradley (R) - Rochester

Democrat Terri Bonoff claimed Gaither's seat, DFLer Taryl Clark won Kleis' seat. Ourada's seat went to Republican Amy Koch.

On the reaction front, the blog SD63: red life in a district of blue says:

As you can imagine, this is a significant reshuffling of the deck for SD63 for the '06. A while back I hinted that Senator Ranum may not run for re-election, but that was because I suspected she would be running for Amy Klobuchar's current position.

Sad news from Waseca

Posted at 1:34 PM on January 24, 2006 by Bob Collins

Sorry to report the death of Barb Penny, wife of former congressman Tim Penny. She died Monday of pancreatic cancer after a lengthy battle. She was 51.

Visitation will be Friday from 4 p.m. to 8 p.m. at McRaith
Funeral Home in Waseca, followed by a memorial service at 10:30
a.m. Saturday at St. John Lutheran Church.

So that's why they call them "blue" states

Posted at 3:34 PM on January 24, 2006 by Bob Collins

Democrats are pessimistic folks, at least where the economy is concerned. So says a new survey from the Pew folks.

Overall, about a third of Americans (34%) rate economic conditions as excellent or good, while nearly twice that number say they are fair or poor (64%). Views of the economy are more favorable than in the fall, when economic attitudes were shaken by two major hurricanes and a spike in gas prices, but remain below where they were a year ago (39% positive in January 2005).

As has been the case through much of Bush's presidency ­ and in stark contrast to the Clinton years ­ public views of the economy are deeply split along political lines. Republicans generally see an economy that is thriving; 56% judge it as excellent or good. Democrats and independents see it much more negatively; just 28% of independents and 23% of Democrats say the economy is doing well.

Kelley snaps back

Posted at 4:03 PM on January 24, 2006 by Bob Collins

Gubernatorial candidate Steve Kelley has fired back at Mike Hatch's apparent decision not to honor the DFL Party endorsement.

From a release today:

Senator Kelley is focused on winning in November. He declared: “It’s time to stop dividing the party—I am abiding by the DFL endorsement because Democrats need to be united to win. I know that DFL delegates want to win in November. Those delegates are smart—they will choose the candidate who can win. I disagree with Mike Hatch that the winner at the DFL convention will win because of some political purity test. The DFL has changed since Hatch last ran for governor. Thousands of new people have gotten involved in recent years: moms and dads who care about health care; business owners who are concerned about early childhood education; workers who care about renewable energy. These diverse people can’t be boxed in by Hatch’s old-hat way of thinking

He didn't say "no," and he didn't say "yes"

Posted at 5:14 PM on January 24, 2006 by Bob Collins

The deep-pocketed Mike Ciresi will announce his political plans next week, according to MPR Capitol bureau chief Laura McCallum. Ciresi is a prominent trial lawyer who led the state's lawsuit against tobacco companies in 1998.

Supporters of DFLer Amy Klobuchar will be sweating it out until Ciresi's announcement. A tough primary battle against Ciresi, could deplete a sizeable chunk of the war chest Klobuchar is hoping to spend against Mark Kennedy.

Walz gets Koz cred

Posted at 8:24 PM on January 24, 2006 by Bob Collins

First District congressional candidate Tim Walz picked up some serious national blogger attention when Daily Koz featured him as a weekly "Fighting Dem."

Do you...take this money....?

Posted at 12:01 AM on January 25, 2006 by Bob Collins

The Institute on Money in State Politics is out with a new study on the amount of money spent by ballot committees surrounding same-sex marriage bills at the state level.

Minnesota wasn't one of them, of course, since the bill died in a Senate committee. The closest state was North Dakota.

Groups supporting gay and lesbian rights raised the most amount of cash, more than conservative groups raised.

Here's the PDF file.

OPEN ITEMS

Patching up the Post

Posted at 3:03 PM on January 25, 2006 by Bob Collins (1 Comments)

The Washington Post has been embroiled in a controversy over the ethics of blogging. The Post recently turned off the comments section of its blog after readers inundated it with, in the view of the Post, unacceptable comments. This followed the Post's ombudsman's column on the Abramoff story.

Today the Post hosted a "chat" (I had no idea people still hosted chats, actually) featuring several bloggers.

This exchange caught my eye:

Seattle, Wash.: The Post's dramatic over-reaction to some critics has, in effect, broadly painted all Democrats on the left as vulgar. Last night, one of the sillier TV pundits characterized blog reaction to Howell's column as "organized terrorism." What can The Post do to tamp down this sort of dangerous mischaracterization, and how can readers who care enough to participate in the dialogue trust that they won't again all be treated as barbarians when they disagree?

Jeff Jarvis: (ed note: Jeff Jarvis is Buzzmachine)That's a great point. To extend the argument, this chat itself is looking at the wrong end of the pipe. It would be better to have a chat about all the great things that do, indeed, come from finally opening up the pipe to two-way collaboration. NashvilleIsTalking.com is my favorite example of a media organization forging a new relationship with citizens by sharing (1) conversation, (2) promotion, (3) content, (4) knowledge, and -- this is a big one -- (5) revenue.

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Debate challenges

Posted at 3:22 PM on January 25, 2006 by Bob Collins

Ford Bell has issued a challenge to DFLer Amy Klobuchar in the race for Senate. One piece of advice for the Ford camp. Put your releases on your Web site.

Among other things Ford said in a letter to Klobuchar:

-- Please join me and Mark Kennedy on KSTP TV's At Issue with Tom Hauser for a debate on the issues. You and I both know that the viewers will see Mr. Kennedy as an extreme ideologue of the Bush White House which will be a good contrast for both of our campaigns.

-- Please accept my challenge from Saturday, January 21st to participate in an open series of debates between you and me and any other DFLers running for U.S. Senate. (This is my preferred manner of debating you, because I believe it is important for our party's activists to see that they have a choice about who will represent them in Washington).

-- Please ask Senator Charles Schumer to stop attempting to meddle in the time-honored grassroots DFL Party endorsing process that will officially begin at our precinct caucuses. I do not believe that Mr. Schumer is doing you any favors with his heavy- handed negative intimidation tactics to "clear the field". We need a positive debate on the issues.

Bell also said he accepted Rep. Mark Kennedy's challenge to debate.

FYI, Bell and Klobuchar will be on MPR's Midday on March 3.

Briefing - January 26, 2006

Posted at 7:46 AM on January 26, 2006 by Bob Collins

Phil Krinkie doesn't hold back. The candidate for Congress in the 6th District comes out swinging on his Web site with the latest on the Alito nomination.

Today's vote was bitter because the left-wing who controls the Democratic Party has now made it clear that they will politicize the judiciary to pursue their extremist agenda. A strictly party-line vote for a clearly qualified nominee based solely on perceived ideological differences is unheard of in these confirmation processes.

MNPublius has particulars on a poll call a reader received regarding sports stadia in Anoka County, with some, well, weird questions.

Minnesota Daily opinion piece, written by the head of the U-DFL, explains why "Mark Kennedy is wrong for students." But the Walker Pilot-Independent has a different view, at least regarding some outdoors issues.

Pete McCloskey is back, according to the LA Times.

he will run against Rep. Richard W. Pombo (R-Tracy), a leading critic of how the government has applied environmental protection laws.

But Swing State Project raises a disputed concern:

I'm appalled at McCloskey's involvement with the Institute for Historical Review, a notorious cabal of Holocaust deniers (something I did not know about when I first wrote about him). In a 2000 speech, he told the group, "I don't know whether you are right or wrong about the Holocaust...." Needless to say, this kind of talk disgusts me in the extreme. McCloskey's remark a few days ago that he "will go and speak to any group" doesn't signal very good judgment or contrition, either.

Red State gives props to Sen. Norm Coleman, who took on George Galloway in hearings into alleged oil-for-food corruption last year.

I am not saying that the House of Commons is made up of hicks: they are, in fact, a political organization with deep and subtle ways, with an institutional history that stretches back since before this continent was discovered by Spain. I am saying that assuming that the techniques that work in your legislative body will work in every legislative body is the hallmark of a hick, and not a very sophisticated one at that. Someone should have explained to him that Senators can be touchy about that sort of thing - and that he didn't have the cover that he'd have back home.

On Real Clear Politics (warning: turn on your pop-up blocker!), Marshall Wittman details why it's "not '94 yet" regarding a minority party sweeping to power.

Quick hits:
>> Robert Byrd has a challenger
>>Democrats get boost from advocacy group
>>Quinnipiac survey: N.J. Senate race is tight

A change at MNSpeak.com

Posted at 12:08 PM on January 26, 2006 by Bob Collins

One of the more fascinating Twin Cities-area blogs is changing hands. Rex Sorgatthas sold the blog to Tom Bartel, publisher of the Rake.

A posting on the site today says the site will only change "if you want it to," reminding me of one of the extra "lies" I learned early on in radio. "There'll be no changes in staff or programming."

Poll burp

Posted at 12:16 PM on January 26, 2006 by Bob Collins

Rasmussen is out with a slew of new polls today:

Colorado Governor:

As candidates for the open governor's seat in Colorado jockey for position, Democratic Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper leads in prospective match-ups against the Republicans most prominently vying for the GOP nomination (see crosstabs). The heavily courted mayor has yet to declare his candidacy. More...

New Jersey Senate:
In the race to be New Jersey's next U.S. Senator, Republican state Senator Tom Kean Jr. now leads appointed Democratic Senator Robert Menendez 42% to 35% (see crosstabs). Kean is son of a popular former governor.

That's quite a change from our December 8 survey, conducted at the time Menendez was appointed. In that survey, Menendez led Kean 38% to 34%.

Kansas Governor:
The first Rasmussen Reports Kansas poll of 2006 shows the incumbent Governor, Kathleen Sebelius (D), leading former state House Speaker Robin Jennison (R) 46% to 32%. Sebelius also leads state Senator Jim Barnett (R) 46% to 35%. More...

Other Rasmussens
California Governor: Arnold Catches Up
Michigan Senate: Stabenow with Big Lead
Michigan Governor: Granholm (D) by 11
Pennsylvania Governor: Swann (R) 45% Rendell (D) 43%
Pennsylvania Senate: Casey (D) 53% Santorum (R) 38%
Congressional Ballot: Democrats By 11
Arkansas Governor: Beebe Leads
Maryland Governor: Ehrlich (R) Rebounds
Maryland Senate: Steele (R) Leads
Virginia Senate: Allen (R) Way Ahead
Iowa Governor: Toss-Up
Montana Senate: Burns Loses Lead
Texas Governor: Free for All
Vermont Governor: Douglas Leads
Georgia Governor: Perdue Leads
Ohio Senate: Tight Race
Ohio Governor: Strickland (D) Leads
Texas Senate: Hutchison by 39 Points
Vermont Senate: Sanders at 70%
Florida Governor: Toss-Up

Hausman switches

Posted at 2:02 PM on January 26, 2006 by Bob Collins

Rep. Alice Hausman is switching her Senate endorsement, from Amy Klobuchar to Ford Bell. (More)

In his own words: Ford Bell

Posted at 3:20 PM on January 26, 2006 by Bob Collins

We're in the process of collecting expansive interviews with the various candidates as part of MPR's online coverage of Campaign 2006. These are also being used to ascertain specific positions for the upcoming version of Select A Candidate.

I'm going to post these interviews raw here as they come in. They'll also be added to the individual canditate pages on the Campaign 2006 Web site (hey, there isn't a better one, trust me!). And the individual statements on the issues will also be stripped and categorized on the candidate page.

This effort is independent of my broadcast brethren - shows like Midday and Midmorning, since the format here allows much more in-depth presentations.

Listen to Tom Scheck's interview with Ford Bell. (Real Audio) I've also stripped out the specific answers and posted them on the Issues section of the Ford Bell page.

Release the hounds!

Posted at 8:06 AM on January 27, 2006 by Bob Collins

OK, new political joke being tested for the road show. "What's a politician's definition of a perfect dream?" Answer: "Any dream that ends with Kevin McHale being named his/her opponent's campaign manager."
Needs work? OK.

On the blogs today, another dispute has broken out (yes, it's hard to believe there'd be words exchanged between bloggers, I know). Pat Kessler of WCCO did a Reality Check a week or so ago about Jack Abramoff, in which he said:

It is widely described a Republican ethics scandal, and it largely is...

..IN FACT, most of the Abramoff related monies in Minnesota went to Democrats.

Uh oh. That's the kind of talk that starts blog fires.

And Clever Peasantry took to the ramparts.

Unfortunately, WCCO's experienced political reporter doesn't seem to be able to grasp this elementary concept. Actually, this isn't very fair. We're fairly sure that Mr. Kessler understands this concept quite well. However, as a mainstream political reporter Mr. Kessler suffers from middleoftheroaditis; a serious condition that affects reporters who believe that treating an issue "fairly" means giving equal weight to both "sides". Because of this unfortunate condition, Mr. Kessler has invented a new term to describe "Mr. Abramoff's donations":

"Abramoff-related monies."

Mr. Kessler then proceeds to use his fancy new term to balance out reality.

You can hear it now, can't you. The voice of Jon Stewart screaming, "OH NO....YOU DIDN'T!"

Back to you, Kessler.

Here are the facts: Abramoff personally gave money only to Republicans. But his clients, especially non-Minnesotan Indian tribes, made millions of dollars in donations to both parties, including a small amount here in Minnesota.

Critics say we shouldn't count that as Abramoff-related money.

But nonpartisan organizations tracking campaign finances regard contributions by Abramoff clients as money connected to Abramoff, and that's part of what federal investigators are looking at.

The vast majority of contributions went to Republicans, and the corruption charges involve only Republicans so far. But politicians from both parties are scrambling to shed their donations.

And that's what we reported.

Hmmmm.... stinging in its restraint? Darn those editors.

Back to you, Mr. Sponge.

Contrary to Mr. Kessler's assertion in the first report that no Minnesota Democrats are giving back their "Abramoff related monies", Mr. Kessler now defends his work by saying that "politicians from both parties are scrambling to give back their donations". Not here in Minnesota. Not at all. Of course, we are using Mr. Kessler to fact check Mr. Kessler so perhaps something is lost in translation. While there are definitly some national Democrats doing so, Mr. Kessler's initial report was specifically about "Abramoff related monies" in Minnesota. Sorry sir, bait and switch doesn't cut it as a defense.

I say 'good day, sir.'

Briefing - Monday January 30, 2006

Posted at 7:16 AM on January 30, 2006 by Bob Collins

Wikipedia is fast becoming the research tool of choice on the Internet, which is too bad because if you don't like the history that is there, you can change it. Apparently that's what Rep. Marty Meehan did according to the Lowell Sun newspaper.

On Sunday Rasmussen released a poll on the governor's race in Minnesota shows Tim Pawlenty leading Mike Hatch in a two-way contest, with a wider lead against DFLer Steve Kelley. Keep in mind these are two-way races, throw in the Independence Party (Peter Hutchinson) and one can imagine a more comfortable position for the governor.

In the Senate race, according to Rasmussen, Amy Klobuchar and Rep. Mark Kennedy are in a statistical dead heat. But Kennedy bests Ford Bell, which has to be comforting to the GOP since a Zogby poll a week and half ago showed Bell giving Kennedy a run.

As we get deeper into the campaign, look for how many media outlets require a candidate to get at least X percentage of a vote in a poll to qualify for the debate. Then ask yourself, "how are they supposed to get X percent when their names aren't even mentioned in the questions being asked of the respondents?"

From the blogs today, Centrisity has an open letter to the "fringe on the left."

Minnesota Democrats Exposed is on Hatch's case about missing a forum in Martin County. (Hey, did anyone attend the Stonewall event over the weekend?)

MN Publius launches one against Mark Kennedy over a fundraising letter.

Cindy Sheehan and Hugo Chavez were arm-in-arm over the weekend. So if you're a Republican running against a Democrat who was arm-in-arm with Cindy Sheehan in the last year...well....they said that algebra class wouldn't pay off.

The tally

Posted at 11:27 AM on January 30, 2006 by Bob Collins

With Rep. Andy Westerberg deciding not to run for re-election, here's the updated list of soon-to-be-open seats.

SENATE (7)
Mark Ourada (R)* - Buffalo
Dave Kleis (R)* - St. Cloud
David Gaither (R)* - Plymouth
Sen. Bob Kierlin (R) - Winona
Sen. John Hottinger (D) - Mankato
Sen. Sharon Marko (D) - Cottage Grove
Sen. Jane Ranum (D) - Minneapolis

HOUSE (8)
Rep. Joe Opatz (D) - St. Cloud
Rep. Matt Entenza (D) - St. Paul
Rep. Jeff Johnson (R) - Plymouth
Rep. Jerry Dempsey (R) - Red Wing
Rep. Ruth Johnson (D) - St. Paul
Rep. Scott Newman (R) - Hutchinson
Rep. Fran Bradley (R) - Rochester
Rep. Andy Westerberg (R) - Blaine

The money chase

Posted at 1:44 PM on January 30, 2006 by Bob Collins (2 Comments)

Tuesday is the day for candidates to file their year-end campaign finance reports with the Federal Elections Commission. I'm updating the individual candidates pages in the Campaign 2006 section.

In the 1st District, Gil Gutknecht holds a substantial advantage over DFLer Tim Walz, $473,267 to $118, 136.

Second District Rep. John Kline is sitting on a pot of cash, having raised $659,693 to date. DFLer Coleen Rowley has not yet filed.

No wonder Rep. Jim Ramstad has no opposition in the 3rd District (OK, there are a lot of reasons, but this is one). He's sitting on $1.1 million.

In the 4th, Betty McCollum had a modest quarter of fundraising and has garnered about $188,000 to date. Her opponent, Republican Obi Sium, has not yet filed.

Martin Sabo, in the 5th District, is currently unopposed and has raised $249,510.50.

In the 6th District race, Phil Krinkie and Michele Bachmann are VERY close in fundraising. Jim Knoblach and Elwyn Tinklenberg and Jay Esmay have not yet filed.

In the 7th District, incumbent DFLer Colin Peterson has raised $318,958.35. Opponent Michael Barrett has yet to file his inaugural statement with the FEC.

And in the 8th District, incumbent Jim Oberstar reports $481,411.57 in total contributions at year's end. He is unopposed.

In the Senate race, none of the candidates has yet filed a report (or at least it's not available yet from the FEC), but Mark Kennedy has issued a release saying he has $2.65 million on hand and raised $1,529,461 in the last quarter, with a total of $3.65 million during the year.

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Look at me! I'm filthy, stinkin' rich.

Posted at 7:57 AM on January 31, 2006 by Bob Collins

America's oil companies took out a full page ad in the biggest newspapers in America in the last week to explain why ExxonMobil made the most money ever reported in corporate history. Why not be proud of the fact you made a ton of cash in business? Why apologize for it? Well, whatever, the company was embarrassed, it seems by its embarrassment of riches.

Politicians haven't reached that level yet where they apologize for making money like it's going out of style. There's nothing illegal about it, but it's just a bit odd to see the press releases being cranked out in the last 24 hours proclaiming a candidate's prowess at raking in the dough, especially when the 30-minute workout in Washington these days is to "tsk tsk" the state of American campaign financing in the wake of the Jack Abramoff scandal.

Anyway, there'll be more press releases today. If you want to poke around on your own, there's a couple of good places to do so. The Federal Election Commission is doing a much better job these days of getting the data inputted. Still not great, mind you. But considering it's the federal government, not that bad. You can search for a particular candidate here. That'll give you the bottom line. With the candidate's name hot-linked, you can find out who gave the cash. Some of the results are pretty lame. For example, it shows no individual gave any money to the Phil Krinkie campaign. Hard to believe. If you want to get some meat with your potatos, try this starting page instead.
It'll give you a list of all forms that have been filed. Look for the "year-end" report.

If you want something a little prettier, try Political Moneyline, which was started years ago by former FEC workers who were unhappy with the glacial pace at which the FEC was migrating data to an online platform.

Like any good cybernauts, a lot of the good stuff is now behind the premium content firewall (hey, democracy is fine, but you have to make money too!). But you can still get a nice graphical depiction of the cash.

And if you want to go to a very nice bottom-line, across-the-board, gee-there's-too-many-hyphens-in-this sentence look at things, then this page on Minnesota is the best spot.

Political Moneyline is lightning-quick at getting the data posted. It only too minutes, it seems once Jim Knoblach filed in the 6th District (he hadn't as of mid-afternoon yesterday) to get his numbers included. And, by the way, they show he was the top fundraiser in the race for the 6th District.

It'll be interesting to see if Elwyn Tinklenberg's numbers today (he hadn't filed as of this morning) show him keeping pace with his Republican counterparts. Patty Wetterling is still sitting out there, maybe even looking for reasons to jump into the race. We'll see.

There's a couple of other spots out there worth mentioning. Opensecrets.org is a nice look at how fundraising works. As a data source, it's really quite stale.

A site that looks more at state money (hey, is it asking too much for Minnesota to get its campaign finance data online? Apparently so.), try the Follow the Money. Unfortunately the site still thinks it's 2004.

Skoglund out

Posted at 11:52 AM on January 31, 2006 by Bob Collins

Sen. Wes Skoglund is the latest legislator to announce he won't seek re-election.

Let's go to the tote board:

SENATE (8)
Mark Ourada (R)* - Buffalo
Dave Kleis (R)* - St. Cloud
David Gaither (R)* - Plymouth
Sen. Bob Kierlin (R) - Winona
Sen. John Hottinger (D) - Mankato
Sen. Sharon Marko (D) - Cottage Grove
Sen. Jane Ranum (D) - Minneapolis
Sen. Wes Skoglund (D) - Minneapolis

HOUSE (8)
Rep. Joe Opatz (D) - St. Cloud
Rep. Matt Entenza (D) - St. Paul
Rep. Jeff Johnson (R) - Plymouth
Rep. Jerry Dempsey (R) - Red Wing
Rep. Ruth Johnson (D) - St. Paul
Rep. Scott Newman (R) - Hutchinson
Rep. Fran Bradley (R) - Rochester
Rep. Andy Westerberg (R) - Blaine

Hey, buddy, can you spare $1.85 million?

Posted at 11:57 AM on January 31, 2006 by Bob Collins

DFL gubernatorial candidate Kelly Doran has just submitted his committee financial report. It shows total receipts of $1.92 million, which includes $1.85 million he borrowed from himself.

The Money Race

GOVERNOR