Capitol View: December 2005 Archive

Holding your nose while voting

Posted at 8:34 AM on December 20, 2005 by Bob Collins

Rep. Mark Kennedy has been put in a tough spot, thanks to the strategy employed by GOP leaders (and even some Democrats, including Rep. John Murtha) in the House to finally get a bill passed allowing drilling for oil in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge.

Leaders attached an amendment appropriating funds for national defense. Kennedy voted for the bill, which passed 308-106 early Monday.

The issue is likely to loom in Kennedy's campaign for the Senate. And, potentially, there's a price to pay for his vote if Kennedy is unsuccesful in separating his vote from his stated position, something that dogged John Kerry in 2004.

Nationwide, a poll in early 2005 found decided opposition to drilling. But that was before high gas prices hit home.

The Minnesota Republican Party clearly is interested in finding out how much this could hurt Kennedy. A poll on the GOPUSA Web site asks visitors to weigh in. An overwhelming 88 percent of the few votes cast when I checked, in showed support for the measure. But 11 percent were opposed. Assuming mostly Republicans visit the Republican Web site, is a 10 percent "alienation factor" among the base significant?

Meanwhile, on the Minnesota DFL Web site, party chair Brian Melendez is resurrecting a familiar - and successful -- term in describing Kennedy's vote: "flip flop." A preview of what's to come?

Curiously, Kennedy's opponents in the race for the Senate are quiet. Neither Amy Klobuchar, Patty Wetterling, or Ford Bell have had anything to say on Kennedy's vote so far. Wetterling's Web site is particularly moribund with the last press release posted October 9th, when she announced her candidacy.

By next week, perhaps, the focus will be off Kennedy and onto Sen. Norm Coleman, another politician who says he's against ANWR drilling, when the issue moves to the Senate.

As election year nears, polls sprout

Posted at 7:22 AM on December 23, 2005 by Bob Collins

Just breezing around the Rasmussen Reports Election Edge 2006 this morning, we find that the poll for the Minnesota Senate is for the premium members only. I'm not a premium member so relying on the Star Tribune article, we find that Mark Kennedy is trailing both Amy Klobuchar and Patty Wetterling.

According to the survey, 62 percent of those surveyed said the war in Iraq will affect their vote, mirroring the presidential election of 2004, which was a referendum on Iraq. The difference now, of course, is that support for the war has weakened considerably, setting the possibility that support for Republicans could similarly weaken.

That could change with the coming announce of troop withdrawals from Iraq. According to Donald Rumsfeld, the U.S. will cut two brigades next year.

Meanwhile, last August DFLer Peter Idusogie surveyed DFL delegates to the last convention, and found overwhelming support for Klobuchar.

As New Hampshire goes...

Posted at 10:50 AM on December 26, 2005 by Bob Collins

Over the last few weeks there've been articles here and there about the effect of the population moves to the South (and southwest) and its impact on the Electoral College; apparently it's seen as a good thing for the GOP.

But losing New Hampshire in the process? If ever there was a traditional Republican state, it was New Hampshire. But in today's Boston Globe, Rick Klein notes that the state's all-GOP congressional delegation is increasingly at odds with the national party.

Targeted Senate races

Posted at 5:01 PM on December 27, 2005 by Bob Collins

New York Sen. Charles Schumer, who heads the Senate Democrats' campaign efforts, is out with a list of seven states where he thinks the Democrats can take Senate seats now held by the GOP: Rhode Island, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Missouri, Montana, Tennessee, and Arizona.

Definition of marriage amendment may be special election casualty

Posted at 5:51 PM on December 28, 2005 by Bob Collins

Minnesota Public Radio's Tom Scheck is reporting that the results of two recent special elections could make it easier for opponents of a bill to put the definition of marriage to a constitutional vote, to stall the legislation at the Capitol.

On Tuesday, DFLer Tarryl Clark won the race to fill the unexpired term of Sen. Dave Kleis. Kleis was a "yes" vote in 2005 when supporters of the amendment tried to force it out of a Senate committee, a vote they lost by 3 votes.

Sen. David Gaither's seat (he's gone on to become Gov. Pawlenty's chief of staff) also went to the DFL and Gaither, too, was a "yes" vote.

The question now is whether these special elections were at all a referendum on the issue. It doesn't appear so since economic and transportation issues seemed to dominate the low-scale campaigns. And the issue certainly isn't going to go away despite the longer odds in the Senate. As Laura McCallum reported last month, Republicans have a lot to gain by pushing it.