Joplin's lessons

Posted at 1:27 PM on September 20, 2011 by Bob Collins (4 Comments)
Filed under: Weather

The National Weather Service today released its report into this summer's devastating tornado in Joplin, Mo.

It pulls no punches in blaming the people of Joplin:

The vast majority of Joplin residents did not immediately take protective action upon receiving a first indication of risk (usually via the local siren system), regardless of the source of the warning. Most chose to further assess their risk by waiting for, actively seeking, and filtering additional information.

The reasons for doing so were quite varied, but largely depended on an individual's ―worldview formed mostly by previous experience with severe weather. Most importantly, the perceived frequency of siren activation in Joplin led the majority of survey participants to become desensitized or complacent to this method of warning. This suggests that initial siren activations in Joplin (and severe weather warnings in general) have lost a degree of credibility for most residents - one of the most valued characteristics for successful risk communication.

But that explanation would also seem to indict trigger-happy meteorologists and officials who "sound the alarm" whenever the skies turn dark and a few lightning bolts begin appearing.

The report recommends a "a non-routine warning mechanism that prompts people to take immediate life-saving action in extreme events like strong and violent tornadoes."

Short-term, however, this could mean more use of social networks, the report said:

One local media outlet in Joplin reported some success using text messaging and social media (e.g., Facebook) as a method of disseminating warning information and receiving storm reports from residents. In addition, most television stations reported using their Facebook accounts to deliver and receive weather information, including warnings and storm reports; however, among residents interviewed in the field, only a small number stated that this was how they primarily received the warnings. Many current dissemination systems are based on geo-political boundaries and jurisdictions (e.g., counties), including EAS and NWR. This can inadvertently project a sense of over-warning or confusion for the general public when warning polygons overlap or multiple warning polygons are issued for a county. For better or worse, NWR and EAS alerted Jasper County (and Joplin) residents twice within a 10-minute period for tornado warning polygon #30 at 509 pm and polygon #31 at 517 pm CDT.

But if officials -- and the media, apparently -- don't begin to better distinguish Joplin-like weather from the typical thunderstorms of summer, anything that's developed eventually becomes "routine."

Find the entire report here.

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Comments (4)

It's time for cellular providers to hook up with the NWS. There's no reason in the world why I shouldn't be receiving weather warnings, based on the cell towers I'm connected to.

Posted by Tyler | September 20, 2011 2:13 PM

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The key phrase here is this:

The frequency of siren activation in Joplin led the majority of survey participants to become desensitized or complacent to this method

This has been happening in Saint Paul /Ramsey all spring/summer. 3 or 4 times this year Ramsey has sounded the sirens for Thunderstorms (or so called Severe Thunderstorms). The first 2 or 3 sirens, I dutifully hauled the kids to basement - even once when it was past 11pm and all the kids were very much asleep. Not one was a tornado warning (we were out of town for the North Mpls actual tornado). I even read that the first course of action now on hearing sirens is to CHECK YOUR LOCAL WEATHER first before heading to shelter. REALLY? So it means nothing then. It's a county wide "check your TV" alarm?

This needs to be addressed in a state-wide all encompassing way, not county by county discretion. I will not be heading to the basement on the first sound of the next alarm. Is this what the local officials and weather alarmists intended? FYI Bob - I'd love to hear Mark Sealy's take on this disturbing trend.

Posted by Gary Leatherman | September 20, 2011 3:19 PM

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My coworker looked up what we're actually supposed to do when we hear sirens. The answer turns out to be: "Seek shelter and turn on a TV to a local channel, local radio, or NOAA radio to be informed of the hazard."
The page is here.

Posted by MR | September 20, 2011 8:00 PM

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One of the beautiful benefits of currently being a part-time student at the U of M is that we get text messages when the weather gets severe (assuming we signed up for emergency alerts).

Working a full-time job and not normally looking out the window, this alerted me to a severe storm in July so I could let my kid at home know before it hit.

Maybe I'm a wimp but I make the family take cover when the storms roll through. As the old adage goes, better safe than sorry.

Posted by Jack | September 21, 2011 8:28 PM

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