News Cut: July 5, 2011 Archive

Lies, damn lies, and political statistics

Posted at 10:59 AM on July 5, 2011 by Bob Collins
Filed under: Politics

Apparently, we're going to hear a factoid about South Carolina from now until its presidential primary on January 28 -- that South Carolina knows how to pick a winner when it comes to Republicans. That, allegedly, is why Republicans are schmoozing up the state.

NPR's Debbie Elliott passed the nugget along today in her piece about presidential politicking in the state.

South Carolina's "first in the South" primary has a track record. The state has picked the eventual Republican nominee in every race since Ronald Reagan in 1980.

We'll spot you Reagan, South Carolina, but beyond that, how big of a deal is this fact? Not very.

Consider two realities. Incumbent presidents are rarely tested within their own party and primaries are virtually irrelevant. Aside from Reagan's victory in 1980 (Strom Thurmond backed Reagan so the election was over early), that takes 1984, 1992 (George Bush was not seriously challenged by Pat Buchanan), and 2004 (the race was uncontested). '

That takes 4 primary results off the board.

In 1988, Reagan's VP defeated Bob Dole in South Carolina. A sitting VP clearly enjoys an advantage.

In 2000, George W. Bush beat John McCain, but it took a dirty tricks campaign to do so. Before the election, a phony poll was created to call voters and ask them, "Would you be more or less likely to vote for John McCain...if you knew he had fathered an illegitimate black child?"

That leaves 1996 (Bob Dole over Pat Buchanan) and 2008 (John McCain over Mike Huckabee).

So since 1980, South Carolina has selected the eventual nominee in a contest that wasn't a foregone conclusion or decided by dirty tricks twice. Big deal.

All that said, Elliott's piece on the role of The Beacon -- and the character therein -- in presidential politics was pretty fine.

Pawlenty on the shutdown

Posted at 11:39 AM on July 5, 2011 by Bob Collins (3 Comments)
Filed under: Politics

Former Minnesota governor Tim Pawlenty's presidential campaign is out with a new commercial, scrapping the speeches and glitz of previous commercials and stressing Pawlenty's role in Minnesota's 2005 shutdown.

The ad makes no mention that one of the reasons the 2005 state shutdown lasted as long as it did, was Pawlenty's insistence on a tax on cigarettes, which he called a "health impact fee."

Nor does it contain Pawlenty's quote after the shutdown ended: ""Government is going to grow. Government does important things. We just want it to grow within reason and grow at a rate that's sustainable"

(3 Comments)

Shutdown: The lunch-hour effect

Posted at 12:30 PM on July 5, 2011 by Bob Collins (15 Comments)
Filed under: Politics

The winners and losers in the Minnesota government shutdown were on display in downtown Saint Paul today.

Winners: There was no waiting at high noon today at the restaurants and fast-food joints in the city's Town Square and plenty of tables available in the usual free-for-all in the seating area.

Losers: Restaurants and fast-food joints. Not since the disastrous Republic National Convention in 2008, have the locals seen such a drop-off in business. The manager of a coffee shop told me this morning business was about half what it usually might be.

Why the impact? The Minnesota Department of Public Safety, the Driver and Vehicle Services office, the Department of Agriculture, and the office of the attorney general are among the bigger state agencies located in downtown Saint Paul.

(15 Comments)