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Twins: No 'mo'? No problem

Posted at 3:38 PM on September 29, 2010 by Bob Collins (14 Comments)
Filed under: Sports

The agony on Twitter usually begins around 7:30 in the evenings these days. It's when Twins fans start lamenting the team's performance -- they've lost five straight games -- since clinching the Central Division title last week. Many are worried that without any momentum in the season's final days, the team won't have any in the playoffs,either. They needn't worry. It doesn't matter.

Here's the highlights of an afternoon spent looking at the final 12 games for playoffs teams since the "wild-card" era began in 1995:

* The average record for the final 12 games for the 120 playoff teams since 1995 is 7 wins and 5 losses. The Twins would have to win all five of their final games to be "average" in this area.

* Teams that won at least 10 of their last 12 games (there have been 11 such teams), won their first round playoff series 72 percent of the time. Four of those teams went to the World Series, but only one of them -- the '98 New York Yankees -- won the World Series.

* Teams with winning records over the last 12 games won their first round playoff series only 47% of the time. Only 8 of 75 teams won a World Series.

* Forty-eight percent of teams with a 6-6 record in the last 12 games won their first round. Only 3 of the 12 teams that did went on to the World Series, but they all won the World Series.

* Sixty-five percent of the teams with losing records over the final games won their first-round playoff series. Forty percent of those teams went on to the World Series. Half of them won the championship.

* In their five playoff years, the Twins have had a losing record over the final regular-season games only once. In the only series they've won (2002), they finished the season with 7 wins and five losses.

Of course the Twins have been also chasing the best record in the league, which would assure them of home field advantage in the playoffs. Is that a big deal? Absolutely.

There is definitely a correlation between a team's record in the regular season and its success in the playoffs. The Twins' best chance of success in the playoffs would be having the best record of any of the playoff teams in the league. If the season were to end today, the Twins would be the third-best playoff team in their league.

Rank in relation to other teams in playofs	First Rd Series won	Second round series won	World Series championships
1	21	11	6
2	11	7	4
3	12	7	3
4	16	5	2

Comments (14)

Still, pitching has been the problem, and pitchers do seem to go through pendulum swings. The last time the Twins pitching went into this sort of funk was back in July. It lasted nearly a month, and the Twins fell out of first place. A few pitchers got sent to the minors for reeducation, and some never returned. There's no time for that right now. One week before the playoffs is not the time to start this sort of a trend.

If you think Ron Gardenhire is not concerned, you didn't see his press conferences after the last couple of games. He was ready to explode.

Posted by John P. | September 29, 2010 4:15 PM

I didn't say Gardy wasn't concerned. You know, if Morneau, Mauer, and Thome were all out of his lineup, I'd be concerned too. The question is whether he's concerned for the right reasons.

What I've noticed about the Twins over the last few years is that they play to the level of their competition AND to their situation. That's not necessarily a good thing.

I'd like to see Valencia batting higher in the order but I suppose this is a bad time of year to tinker.

Anyway, I wouldn't be concerned that the Twins won't do well in the playoffs b/c of lack of momentum. I would be concerned b/c they're not that good with so many critical pieces out of the lineup.

Posted by Bob Collins | September 29, 2010 5:17 PM

Phew! One less thing for me to worry about. Check that off my list. Thanks for the analysis, Bob.

I think it's natural to worry a little when any team hits a losing streak at the end of the season. I'd be more concerned first about morale and a winning attitude, and second about how their bodies are holding up. Maybe Gardy was trying to ratchet things up a couple of notches with the first. He can't do anything about the second item. They've put in a very respectable season, so they're allowed to kick back (a little).

The only other thing I want to say is Valencia looks like he's about 12 years old. I know he's 26, but he looks like a kid. You know you're getting old when a baseball player looks younger than one of your (your youngest) kids.

Posted by Jeanne | September 29, 2010 6:06 PM

A couple of things: It's been repeated many times in the last few days that the '87 Twins lost every game after clinching the AL West. They did okay in the ALCS and World Series that year. (I realize this is out of the scope of your analysis.) Second, the announcers the other night made a good point. And this goes to the statement about playing up to or down to the competition. The Tigers have been playing well in late September. For their fans it's a shame they took the month of August off. In KC I'm guessing it's hard to get motivated when you're playing in front of a half filled stadium, in a game where your regulars are just trying to make sure they don't get hurt because the "real" games are a week away. I think you'll see a different attitude when they play the "Fan Appreciation" series against Toronto at Target Field.

Posted by JackU | September 30, 2010 8:52 AM

If you get swept by the Cleveland Indians, I don't think any announcer should describe you as playing well (g).

BTW, to get to the playoffs, that 87 Twins team beat a team that won its last four games.

Posted by Bob Collins | September 30, 2010 11:01 AM

Poor writing ( or editing). The title indicates that lack of momentum near the end of the season is " no problem." Yet the statistics you cite indicate otherwise. Baseball is nothing if not a game of numbers. The positive examples that you give are the exception to the rule. As a Twins fan, I hope you're right. As an MPR and journalism fan, I'm disappointed.

Posted by Jim Shapiro | October 1, 2010 11:24 AM

// http://blogs.twincities.com/education/2008/02/is-keillor-right.html

The statistics show exactly what I said they show. There is no correlation between the team's performance at the end of the season and its performance in the playoffs. And that there is a correlation between an overall record and the success in the playoffs.

The great thing about statistics is you can use them to prove a point.

Prove yours.

Posted by Bob Collins | October 1, 2010 11:28 AM

You stopped one step short. In the case of the Twins late season record this year, there is a causal relationship between how many games they win out of the last 12 played, and where they finish in relation to the other three teams.

The most predictive statistic as to post season success is clearly the order of finish of the 4 playoff teams, with the 4th place team as the outlier in the first round relative to the 2nd and 3rd place teams.

Nice try though, Bob.

Posted by Jim Shapiro | October 1, 2010 9:27 PM

///You stopped one step short. In the case of the Twins late season record this year, there is a causal relationship between how many games they win out of the last 12 played, and where they finish in relation to the other three teams.

Not much science there, Jim. You've astutely pointed out that there's a relationship between the number of games a team wins in a season and the number of games a team wins in a season.

Posted by Bob Collins | October 2, 2010 7:32 AM

Is your own cited data too complex for you Bob?
The boxes with the squiggly things called numbers at the end of your blog explain it. Maybe someone in accounting can help you to understand them.

But I really hope the numbers are wrong, and that you're right.

Then we can both be happy.

Posted by Jim Shapiro | October 2, 2010 10:23 AM

The exercise didn't suggest wins and losses don't matter. It was that the question of whether there is a definable thing called "momentum."

Posted by Bob Collins | October 2, 2010 1:07 PM

Touche. The different types of stats are very interesting, albeit potentially contradictory. Let's all hope for the Twins' sake that the unimportance of the won-loss record over the final 12 games over rides the importance of the order of finish among the four playoff teams.

Posted by Jim Shapiro | October 4, 2010 1:28 AM

I wouldn't put money on them -- I'm not much of a gambler anyway -- but I think their odds are reasonable. No 100-win teams in the playoffs is a good thing, I guess.

Posted by Bob Collins | October 4, 2010 6:17 AM

Thanks for your optimism, Bob. Their recent record vs the New York Mercenaries is dismal. Which placed me in the cognitively dissonant position of hoping that the dreaded pin stripers would win their division, thus at least delaying a potential match up with the Twins until the league championship.

Back when I was betting a little on the sports I thought I understood ( while living in countries with legal gambling, of course :-), I would only bet on my Minnesota teams to win, or not at all. The heart/ head conflict made it too painful to bet against my Twins/Vikes/Wolves, regardless of how much money was to be won on the occasional (almost) sure wager.

Posted by Jim Shapiro | October 4, 2010 11:37 AM