Could a gubernatorial election hinge on the Gophers?

Posted at 2:08 PM on July 6, 2010 by Bob Collins (6 Comments)

Still think sports is irrelevant?

A Loyola Marymount University study is drawing a link between the outcome of sports events and the outcome of political elections, lending credibility, Discover reports, to the evidence that "voting decisions aren't just based on objective and well-reasoned analysis, despite their importance in democratic societies. They can be influenced by completely irrelevant events, putting the fate of politicians into the hands (or feet) of sportsmen."

According to researcher Andrew Healy "if a local college football team wins a match in the ten days before a Senate, gubernatiorial or even presidential election, the incumbent candidate tends to get a slightly higher proportion of the vote."

A victory by the local squad, Healy says, puts voters in a more positive frame of mind and that's all to the good for incumbents. He looked at counties that had teams in the Bowl Championship Series in elections between 1964 and 2008 for his data. Oddly, the BCS didn't exist, though, until 1998. But why quibble with such facts?

Does the phenomenon hold true for Minnesota. It's hard to say since the research doesn't say a candidate will win or lose based on the football results, only that the total votes received will be higher or lower. Healy says the value of a team win is about 1 percentage point.But let's look anyway:

Year	Gophers Opponent	Result	Incumbent
2006	Indiana	Win 63-26	Won
2002	Ohio State	Loss 34-3	No incumbent
1998	Michigan	Loss 15-10	No incumbent
1994	Wisconsin	Won 17-14	Won
1990	Wisconsin	Won 21-13	Lost
1986	Michigan State	Loss 52-23	Won
1982	Michigan	Loss 52-14	No incumbent
1978	Indiana	Win 32-31	Lost
1974	Northwestern	Loss 21-14	Won
1970	Iowa	Tie 14-14	No incumbent
1966	Ohio State	Win 17-7	Lost

In the three times since 1966 that a sitting governor of Minnesota has been turned out of office by voters, the Gophers won the previous Saturday.

The question now is whether this alleged phenomenon translates to geographic areas that aren't quite so college football-rabid. Does a Minnesota Wild team win do the same thing for Minnesota? And what about the Timberwolves? If so, write if you get work, incumbents.

Update 3:44 p.m. - Several people on Twitter suggested the cause-and-effect might be more noticeable with the Vikings, rather the Gophers. The results are even more tenuous with the purple.

Year	Vikings Opponent	Result	Incumbent
2006	San Francisco	Loss 9-3	Won
2002	Tampa Bay	Loss 38-24	No incumbent
1998	Tampa Bay	Loss 27-24	No incumbent
1994	Tampa Bay	Win 36-13	Won
1990	Denver	Win 27-22	Lost
1986	Washington	Loss 44-38	Won
1982	No Game - Strike		No incumbent
1978	Detroit	Win 17-7	Lost
1974	Chicago	Win 17-0	Won
1970	Detroit	Win 30-17	No incumbent
1966	San Francisco	Win 28-3	Lost

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Comments (6)

Bob,

Why do you waste your time on this? Slow news day?

Bill Gleason

Posted by Bill Gleason | July 6, 2010 3:39 PM

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I think it's job to to find the little stories. In fact it says almost exactly that in the npr radio ad about Bob.

Posted by john | July 6, 2010 3:43 PM

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I for one find Bob's stuff refreshing.

As Peter Sagal once said, Public Radio fans are serious people. Levity IS a good thing.

Posted by Paul | July 6, 2010 3:50 PM

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You know, Bill, from time to time I put out calls here on News Cut for people like you to tell me about people they know who they think I should write about. It sounds like you've got someone -- or some thing -- in mind.

As I've said before, I'll go anywhere, and talk to anybody.

Posted by Bob Collins | July 6, 2010 3:50 PM

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If Jim Wacker hadn't won in Madison we might have ended up with Gov. Marty.

Posted by Steve | July 6, 2010 4:05 PM

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Bob-

Most of the time, I enjoy your stuff. This piece just seemed so contrived, I was surprised...

We have a helluva mess over at the U of M. The more public scrutiny we have about what is going on, the better. Folks like you can make a difference because the Morrill Hall Gang is very concerned about their image, but not much else.

Best,

Bill

Posted by Bill Gleason | July 6, 2010 4:24 PM

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