Unemployment and the race for governor

Posted at 4:57 PM on April 23, 2010 by Bob Collins (0 Comments)
Filed under: Economy, Politics

Minnesota Public Radio is providing coverage today and Saturday of the DFL convention in Duluth, the focus of which is mostly on the race for governor.

It's horse-race coverage, to be sure, but occasionally you hear some claims that make a nice jumping-off point for some research. Here's one I heard today: "R.T. Rybak should be governor because the Minneapolis unemployment rate is lower than surrounding communities."

It's a fascinating assertion, especially if one likes to dig into the numbers. Let's dig into the numbers.

I took several random "surrounding communities" of Minneapolis, including Woodbury, "our fair city."

And the claim is correct, Minneapolis does have a lower unemployment rate than the surrounding communities. Here are the totals for March 2010.

Community	Unemployment rate
Eden Prairie	5.6%
Chanhassen	5.9%
Woodbury	6.1%
Shoreview	6.3%
Eagan	6.4%
Apple Valley	6.8%
Minneapolis	6.8%
Burnsville	7.3%
Bloomington	7.4%
St. Paul	7.8%
Maplewood	8.0%
Oakdale	8.0%
White Bear Lake	9.1%

Now, let's go back to March 2006:

Community	Unemployment rate
Eden Prairie	2.8%
Chanhassen	2.9%
Eagan	2.9%
Woodbury	3.0%
Shoreview	3.2%
Apple Valley	3.3%
Bloomington	3.6%
Burnsville	3.7%
Minneapolis	4.0%
Maplewood	4.1%
Oakdale	4.1%
St. Paul	4.4%
White Bear Lake	5.3%

Minneapolis moved from 9th to 7th in the last four years, but the relationship with other communities is generally the same.

Let's go back four more years -- to March 2002:

Community	Unemployment rate
Chanhassen	3.6%
Woodbury	3.8%
Shoreview	4.0%
Eden Prairie	4.2%
Eagan	4.2%
Apple Valley	4.3%
Maplewood	4.4%
Oakdale	4.7%
Burnsville	5.0%
Bloomington	5.1%
Minneapolis	5.3%
St. Paul	5.4%
White Bear Lake	6.1%

Minneapolis, as you can see, ranked 11th.

Here's a look at March 1998:

Community	Unemployment rate
Chanhassen	n/a
Woodbury	1.1%
Eden Prairie	1.4%
Eagan	1.4%
Shoreview	1.6%
Apple Valley	1.6%
Bloomington	1.7%
Burnsville	1.8%
Maplewood	1.9%
Oakdale	2.2%
White Bear Lake	2.5%
Minneapolis	3.0%
St. Paul	3.2%

Minneapolis was 12th on the list.

What does all of this prove? Not a lot. Minneapolis' place in the region -- at least where unemployment is concerned -- is on the upswing. And the next governor probably won't come from White Bear Lake.

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