News Cut: February 28, 2008 Archive

Political ferment

Posted at 6:40 AM on February 28, 2008 by Bob Collins (0 Comments)

There have been many eloquent words written in the last day or so about the death on Wednesday of William F. Buckley Jr. Many conservatives pointed out that it was Buckley who led them to their philosophy.

For others, it was Buckley's and Gore Vidal's 1968 debates that led them to the passion behind politics and the art of personal punditry.

See? Bloggers didn't invent this stuff.

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The end of the 'hot rod' guru

Posted at 7:22 AM on February 28, 2008 by Bob Collins (0 Comments)

I find this morning that reality TV series have given us a "connection" to people we never would have had a connection with otherwise.

Boyd Coddington is dead.

I can't change the oil on the News Cutmobile in under 4 hours, and yet I was riveted by American Hot Rod, not so much for what I learned about hot rods, but by the realization that other workplaces are as -- how do I put this and still be able to write in this space tomorrow? -- "occasionally dysfunctional" as the ones I've worked in.

Coddington was the poster boy for the "Stressed out bosses of America" club. And yet, like a drag race out on the edge of town, we couldn't turn away, even though we knew the end could be bad.

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Waiting for the bad news

Posted at 7:50 AM on February 28, 2008 by Bob Collins (10 Comments)

I'll be live blogging the news conference today at 11 during which the size of the state's budget deficit will be made clear. Later, Gov. Pawlenty will hold his own news conference. A Webcast of the events will be available on the Minnesota Public Radio Web site.

Tom Stinson, the state economist, described Minnesota's economy this way last month:

The National Bureau of Economic Research - the group that actually calls whether the U.S. is in a recession -- says what they look for is an economic slump that is broad-based and of some significant duration. And what we've seen over the last six months in employment in Minnesota certainly qualifies."

That earned him a rhetorical smackdown from the governor:

"Tom Stinson tends to be a bit on the pessimistic side of things, to put it charitably...I don't think it's helpful - unless it's clearly justified by the data - for people to get overly pessimistic or overly scare people, either."

Nonetheless, the smart money at the Capitol says the deficit could approach $1 billion, and even some top-ranking DFLers are saying the budget will have to be cut. So let's take another whack at the "shared sacrifice game" while we're waiting for the sessions to start:

If you were to give up something in the state budget from which you derive a benefit, what would it be?

I usually don't get many responses when I ask the question.

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Budget forecast live blog

Posted at 11:14 AM on February 28, 2008 by Bob Collins (0 Comments)

We're off and running...

11:16: Tom Hanson, commissioner of finance, says $935 million deficit is projected for the next two years. About a half-billion worse than was forecast in November. Reveals a recession is expected in the first two quarters of this year and be short. Corporate revenues have dropped 20 percent from a year ago. Individual income taxes have dropped, too. A $1.1 billion deficit is projected for 2010-2011. Worse with inflation (what? Budget folks for Minnesota are acknowledging there's such a thing as inflation, now?)

11:19: State economist Tom Stinson says it's wrong to focus on the change between November and now. Says it's "misleading." Wants to focus on total change from end of session estimates and current estimates. That end-of-session change has the income tax down 1.8 percent (20% of revenues), sales tax is down 3.4% (25% of change in revenues). Corporate income tax down 21% (a third of the change). Other taxes down 3.2%. "A widely dispersed reduction. It's not just a one-tax problem, it's a problem with the economy."

11:23 - Stinson: Income tax's reduced receipts are from "non-wage sources" like capital gains, interest, and dividends. In other words, businesses aren't being sold, for example.

11:26: Corporate refunds are "much higher" than expected over the last 6-8 weeks."That's money that's out the door." (bob: what will corporations do with the refunds?)

11:27: Stinson expects higher sales tax receipts because of rebate checks.

11:27:30: DING DING DING. "We're in a recession," Stinson said. Over to you, governor. Stinson says since stimulus package runs out at the end of the year, we could have a "double dip" recession. What does that mean?

11:30: Stinson's tone now is very much like the funeral home person who helps pick out a casket.

11:33: Time for questions from the reporters (which nobody can hear). Hanson doing the talking. "Certainly doable," Hanson says in ability to fix things this year.

11:34: Legislative TV coverage shifts to Senate debate of Molnau's future. Turning off TV sound.

11:36: Hanson says other states are in deep doodoo, too. "Even states like Texas that have oil revenue," he says.

11:37 - Gas tax won't make any difference. "It's outside of the current biennium," Stinson says.

11:37 - Unidentified presenter. "It all depend on whether the economy goes into recession or not." Wait a minute! I thought they just said we are in one?

11:41 - The Minnesota Department of Finance has just made all the charts and reports available online. Go here.

11:42: "This is troubling because the uncertainty isn't going to be resolved very quickly," Stinson. Warning: The forecast assumes the price of oil drops to $75 a barrel this summer. Likely?

11:45: The stimulus package from Washington "will almost certainly stop" a recession after the second quarter. Is that the recession we don't know we're in? Or the one we do?

11:48: The $75 a barrel projection for oil assumes there's a recession and we drive less.

11:49: Loss of any jobs in the Delta-NWA merger would affect the forecast. "Not to minimize the problems of the individuals, but with 2.7 million jobs in the state, this isn't something that will bring the economy to its knees" Stinson said.

11:50: Two areas of strength in the national economy -- energy exploration and defense industry -- aren't Minnesota's strong suit. Not so in North Dakota. Timber industry is Minnesota's ace.

11:54 State not laying people off. Hiring "freeze" means a "slowdown" in replacing employees who leave.

11:55: Current budget reserve is about $653 million. "We also have $350 million cash flow account. That's an appropriation." Yahtzee... that's $1 billion! "It would be wise to keep some money on hand in case our November and (next) February forecast goes down," Hanson said. Oh.

11:58: Hanson says Stinson would "have his economist card pulled away if you called him optimistic."

End of news conference. Back later with the governor's response.

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Budget deficit trivia

Posted at 12:54 PM on February 28, 2008 by Bob Collins (1 Comments)

The two-year budget deficit forecast today works out to $180.95 for every Minnesotan.

(Update: By the way, we lost the audio feed from the Cap for the Webcast. So no live blogging on that.)

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Marriage or divorce?

Posted at 1:14 PM on February 28, 2008 by Bob Collins (0 Comments)

There are a few reports around today that Delta and Northwest have walked away from their merger talks. The blogs appear to be quicker to declare the merger dead than anyone else.

The difficulty, apparently, is the merging of seniority lists for the pilots, according to Marketwatch:

One possible hangup is that Delta has more junior pilots flying the better-paying routes than Northwest, Kasper said. Since Delta wants to protect its pilots' seniority, integrating the lists probably won't be based on date of hire or how may hours a pilot has flown -- and that might be causing resentment among Northwest pilots.

According to a memo from Delta CEO Richard Anderson, it's clear the word "merger" is an inaccurate business euphemism for "takeover," since he wants Delta to keep the name, keep the headquarters in Atlanta, and keep the seniority of Delta pilots.

In any case, it's far too early to declare the marriage dead.

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The universe, thanks to Minnesota

Posted at 1:28 PM on February 28, 2008 by Bob Collins (0 Comments)

Guess where a particle of "dark matter" -- the substance that forms the skeleton of galaxies -- may be hiding? Minnesota.

According to Science Daily, scientists are sitting in the Soudan Mine in northern Minnesota...

A consortium of research scientists, including Stanford physicist Blas Cabrera, anticipated the detection of a predicted-but-undiscovered dark particle known as a weakly interacting massive particle, or WIMP. The hope was that several WIMPs would travel through space and a half-mile of Earth to plunk themselves into the nuclei of germanium atoms in the detectors, each collision creating a vibration and a tiny puff of heat that would signal the WIMP's existence.

OK, granted they've been there for awhile, but what if the building block of the universe turned out to be right here in Minnesota? Why, that might be a bigger claim to fame for Minnesota than Diablo Cody.

But time is running out. Pretty soon they're going to move the operation to Canada.

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After Amanda

Posted at 1:53 PM on February 28, 2008 by Bob Collins (9 Comments)

(This post was updated at 4 p.m. to include reaction from an attorney for one friend.)

Where do we start with the sad case of Amanda Jax, the legal adult who drank herself to death on her birthday? Our time to discuss it intelligently is short. Those being sued actually were served three weeks ago but the family had a news conference today. The subject is the stuff talk radio hosts dream of and once they awake, well, you know.

According to a story by MPR's Art Hughes, five of her friends are among those being sued by the Jax family. Their alleged crime? They, not Amanda, bought the drinks for her.

The odds are Hannah Marie Becker, Richard Thomas Johnson, Per David Kvalsten, Kathryn Ann Lensing, and Jonathan Robert McIntyre are going to spend a lot more now on attorney fees, although homeowner's insurance will likely cover the tab.

A description in the Mankato Free Press makes it hard to feel sorry for them:

An exhibit included in the paperwork is a picture (lawyer Alan Milavetz describes as Jax taking her last shot, a mixture of cherry vodka and an energy drink called a “cherry bomb,” with her friends and the bartender, Beau Ryan.

Those friends, also named as defendants in the lawsuit, took pictures of Jax as she sat unconscious outside Sidelines, according to the civil complaint.

Jax's friends had at least a moral responsibility to take care of her, but did they have a legal one, too?

Mark Solheim, the attorney for Becker, told me this afternoon his client had no legal obligations under state law, and there's a good reason for that. "Let's say I have you and your wife over for dinner and at some point I say to you, 'Bob, that's your third glass of wine, I have a duty to stop you,' where does that end? How long would that duty last? What if you fell down and hit your head the next day? How long am I liable?"

Solheim says Becker is devastated by her friend's death. He says the lawsuit could take up to a year and a half. He says he's never heard of a case quite like this, adding he has an "active practice in cases involving alcohol."

Meanwhile, it'll be open season on the memory of Amanda Jax, who while an underage student in Mankato, was twice convicted of drunken driving; once in 2005 in Hennepin County and in 2006 in McLeod County.

It's hard to see what a "win" in the case accomplishes.

Criminal charges were not filed in the case.

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