Posted at 6:31 PM on February 22, 2009
by Euan Kerr
Well, the Natters voters have made their voices heard and if things go as you predict, it will be a good night for Danny Boyle, "Slumdog Millionaire," Kate Winslet and Mickey Rourke.
I understand the feeling that Sean Penn should take the best actor nod, but Hollywood has a sentimental streak which will likely lean Rourke-ward.
It will be further down the list that we may get a little suspense. Heath Ledger seems a shoo-in for a posthumous Best Supporting Actor. I have to admit I really have no idea about the Best Supporting Actress, and can see it going to any of the five nominees.
In Best Foreign Language film "The Class" has to be a strong contender for its realism, and the remarkable performances by the actors playing students in the film. However "Waltz with Bashir" touches on so many issues about war, memory, and responsibility through its use of animation, that it will be hard for the Academy to resist.
In Best Documentary, "Trouble the Water" is a wonderful film which should be seen by anyone who doubts the impact of Hurricane Katrina is still being felt. But the statuette will likely go to "Man on a Wire" which is the outrageous tale of the man who walked a wire stretched between the towers of the World Trade Center.
Original screenplay is an interesting one too with "Frozen River," "Happy-Go-Lucky," "In Bruges," "Milk, and "Wall-E." The movies are all very different, both in subject matter, and in the way they were conceived. Martin McDonough has done well in other contests with "In Bruges," however "Frozen River" is a wonderful little film which deserves recognition, and anyone who has seen Mike Leigh's "anti-miserablist" film has to feel love for "Happy-Go-Lucky." I'm going with "In Bruges" but could see it going to any of the films, even "Wall-E."