MinnEcon Category Archive: MinnEcon Indicator

MN per capita income growth outpaces US

Posted at 3:43 PM on April 1, 2013 by Bill Catlin (1 Comments)
Filed under: MinnEcon Indicator

Minnesota's per capita personal income, a broad measure of prosperity, rose 3.7 percent (not adjusted for inflation) from 2011 to 2012, according to data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. That's a faster pace than the U.S. total, which rose 2.7 percent.

Minnesota's income per person of $46,227 is $3,534 more than the national tally of $42,693.

Minnesota retained its ranking of eleventh among the 50 states in 2012. Minnesota has ranked among the top 10 of states only one year since 2004. From 2000 through that year, Minnesota was among the top 10 every year, notching the best ranking, seventh, in 2004.

Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

Minnesota's economy from the bakery window

Posted at 10:30 AM on March 11, 2011 by Molly Bloom (1 Comments)
Filed under: Greater Minnesota, MinnEcon Indicator, Small business

Cold Spring Bakery wedding cakes on display

Cold Spring Bakery in Cold Spring, Minn. has been open for over 60 years and Lynn Schurman has worked there for nearly 40 of them. Lynn is the co-owner of the bakery along with her husband and brother-in-law and she was kind enough to take a break from her busy day to tell me how her business if faring these days. Here are three key insights she shared with me:

Weddings are back

Weddings can serve as a pretty good economic indicator (as we've looked at before here at MinnEcon) and 2010 was not a great year for weddings.

But business at Cold Stone Bakery is up since October and Lynn attributes some of that to the increased number of wedding cake orders that are coming in.

Experienced bakers are hard to find

Cold Spring Bakery, which has about 60 employees, is having a hard time finding bakers who have been trained in commercial baking. In part, that's because Minnesota no longer has trade schools producing the qualified graduates Schurman is looking for. Dunwoody as well as technical colleges in Mankato and Duluth all used to have programs, but starting eliminating them about 10 years ago. Television shows like Ace of Cakes may be driving more people to culinary school, but they are trained there to be pastry chefs, not bakers that make 300 pounds of bread at a time.

Their business is half retail and half wholesale, and they have open positions that they have not been able to fill. They are able to do some training on the job, but some positions, like bakers in charge of mixing large batches of dough, require more specialized training. They will have some interns coming in from out-of-state programs this summer and Schurman hopes they'll develop into the employees that the bakery needs.

Ingredient costs are rising fast

The price of honey and flour have both doubled since last year at this time. Flour has jumped from $12 to $24 per 100 pounds. Sugar has gone up 50 percent since last year and is now nearly $30 per bag. They've been able to hold their prices steady up until now but have just started to have to raise prices on some of their products. Cake prices are going up nearly six percent and breads and buns are going up as much as seven percent. "If flour is your main ingredient, you've got to do something," Schurman said.

Schurman said bakers are coming together to challenge the rising sugar prices. She recently signed a petition through "End the Big Sugar Bailout" and the American Bakers Association and the Retail Bakery Association are coming together to lobby Washington on this issue.

Lynn Schurman is a source in our Public Insight Network and we'll check back with her in a few months to see how her business is doing and if prices are stabilizing. You can tell us about your business here or in the comments.

Manufacturing hiring from the inside

Posted at 10:33 AM on February 24, 2011 by Molly Bloom
Filed under: MinnEcon Indicator, Small business

A staffing company that works with smaller manufacturers in Wisconsin and Minnesota hired over 600 temporary, contract and direct placement workers for their clients last year - a potentially hopeful sign for the struggling economy.

Brigham Group Staffing saw a 90 percent increase in hiring over 2009 last year and expects at least another 10 percent increase this year.

The kinds of companies that Brigham Group Staffing works with at its Bloomington and Baldwin, Wis. offices have anywhere from five to 500 employees and Jennifer Brigham, president and founder, is heartened by the capital investment she's seeing. Several of her clients have added new assembly lines and the people needed to run them.

"After biding their time, things are moving again," she said.

But the kinds of workers manufacturers are looking for are not a dime a dozen. Brigham said a lot has changed since she started her company 30 years ago.

It used to be that manufacturers wanted, "reliable workers with good, strong backs that could learn on the job," she said. Now they're looking for people with specific degrees from certain kinds of schools with a very specific skill set.

"Manufacturers feel they can't take a chance on teaching people on the job," Brigham said. "Employers are more picky."

The kinds of skills businesses most often request are advanced tool and die work, prototyping, technical welding, and computer numerically controlled programming for manufacturing machines.

Brigham also receives many requests for machinist/engineer combinations or people with manufacturing engineering degrees.

"But sometimes electrical or mechanical engineers will work and having a background in computer programming is cool too," she said.

Brigham said that it's not easy to find the people with exact skill sets that her clients are looking for. Her company works with Dunwoody College of Technology in Minneapolis to find the people they need before the students even finish school.

According to Brigham, most students in the two-year programs have already found a job early on in their second year of school.

"These jobs just didn't exist 20, even 10 years ago," Brigham said.

It's in these new fields that Brigham sees growth - and opportunity for students.

Jennifer Brigham is a source in our Public Insight Network. What are you seeing at your work? Share your story with MinnEcon.

Drivers wanted! Rise in freight drives trucker demand

Posted at 9:30 AM on September 3, 2010 by Molly Bloom (2 Comments)
Filed under: MinnEcon Indicator, Small business

The website of Universal Transportation Services says it pretty clearly: "Drivers Wanted!!"

But the Minnesota-based trucking company, which has operations in Detroit, Minneapolis, Omaha and Chicago, can't seem to find them - even in a tough economy that has the nation's unemployment rate nearing 10 percent.

"It has become very difficult to find reliable and competent drivers to haul freight in today's market," the company's website says.

Trucking industry representatives in Minnesota say the labor shortage was caused in part by the recession. Unable to find work, many truck drivers became discouraged and found work outside the industry, said John Hausladen, president of the Minnesota Trucking Association.

Increased freight shipments in recent months also have trucking companies competing for a limited pool of drivers.

Hausladen said that in March, one of his members received 70 applications for an open driving position. In August, a similar position only brought in four applicants.

Universal Transportation president and owner and Public Insight Network source Brent Bois said the recession hit his company. Before the recession, they were running an average of 95 trucks a day. In February 2009, their lowest point, they were down to 45 trucks, less than half of their previous business.

But starting in March, companies were starting to want more freight delivered. Bois said shipments are back to pre-recession levels. His fleet of 75 trucks has been so busy that he's looking for more drivers to take on some of that load. Bois said his company could be handling 30 percent more business if they had the truck power.

Another contributing factor is a new set of safety standards adopted by the federal Motor Carriers Safety Administration. The new, more stringent rules have made trucking companies more picky and Hausladen said this is discouraging some drivers from applying.

Minnesota is one of nine pilot states who are using these new federal guidelines, which will be implemented nationally in November.

Under previous federal regulations, when drivers received violations, the companies would be assessed points and the driver's would not be penalized. Under the new rules, violations committed by drivers will follow them no matter who they are working for. If companies or drivers have enough points against them, federal authorities will assess fines.

Companies like Bois' are looking for drivers who will be able to meet the new safety standards. Increasingly they're turning to truck driving programs like the one at Southeastern Technical College in Winona, where a new group of students, usually numbering between 18 and 30, starts the 16-week certification course every eight weeks.

Tom Gierok, a veteran truck driver and instructor who still hauls freight during the summers and weekends, said it was tough to place students in jobs last year. But this year, he said, the college is "close to 100 percent placement after certification."

That's made truck driving an attractive option for those who are retraining for new jobs after losing their old ones.

Gierok's students, who range in age from 18 to 70, can leave after eight weeks of classes and an eight-week internship. First year drivers can earn between $37,000 to $45,000 a year and their salaries will go up as they gain more driving hours.

Gierok, Bois and Hausladen all see trucking as a good economic indicator. With 68 percent of goods transported by truck, Hausladen said, "If you got it, a truck brought it."

What other economic indicators are you keeping an eye on? Tell us what you're seeing here.

Photos courtesy Brent Bois, Tom Gierok

September economic pulse: You're not buying it

Posted at 1:30 PM on September 9, 2010 by Paul Tosto
Filed under: Add category, Jobs & unemployment, MinnEcon Indicator, Saving & spending

Consumer spending's taken a dive in the Great Recession. No jobs means no buying beyond essentials. We've heard that for months from Minnesotans in MPR's Public Insight Network.

Things seem a little better lately, though. Minnesota's jobless rate is holding its own at 6.8 percent and hopefully will drop a bit more when new data arrive next week.

So is that changing the outlook on spending and savings? Not really.

We asked network sources a few weeks ago to take their economic pulse. Things looking better? Spending more? Putting off any big purchases?

The responses we got back tell us many people are still snake-bit when it comes to spending. Many of us still aren't feeling a recovery and those who are aren't ready to write big checks yet for anything that isn't absolutely necessary.

"I am not in a position to save anything," said Betsey Porter of Bloomington. "I have to pay for my (car registration) tabs which went from $35/yr to $219/yr with the purchase of a new used car last year. YIKES!"

Check out the map below to read some of what we heard. The colors indicate how folks summed up their current outlook in mid-August. We got one bleak and one bright. "Holding steady" and "looking better" held the day but enough "worrisome" responses for us to know that the recession is still weighing on our friends and neighbors.

Tell us about your household here and we'll add your responses to the map.

James Allen of Alexandria was among several parents who told us college bills would make it tough to save more this fall.

"I expect my financial situation to worsen," he told us. "I will have two children in college and I will also be going back to school, which means less earning power on my part."

One result: "We are putting off home improvements, especially carpet, shingles and replacing the deck. We have really cut back on non-essential purchases, have been for the better part of a year."

Tom Jorgens of Crookston was among the most optimistic of Minnesotans who shared a story with us.

"I see growing signs of a recovery. Business is increasing again," he wrote. He saw himself able to increase his savings and investments.

National data show the personal savings rate of Americans continues to climb.

Here's a chart by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis showing personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income since 1970 (click on the chart for a larger view).

You can see savings took a dive in the 2000s but has been rebounding out of the recession.

The personal savings rate dipped to 5.9 percent in July, compared with 6.2 percent in June.

Still, it's light years better than the 1.9 percent recorded in November 2007 -- a month before the recession officially hit.

Here's another St. Louis Fed chart showing household debt payments as a percentage of disposable income. That debt burden continues to plummet. (Click on the chart for a larger view.)

We're hoping that when Minnesota's August jobless data is released next Thursday it shows unemployment falling. Recent news of a jump in job vacancies here is also a positive sign.

Even as a jobs recovery starts to reach more people, though, don't expect our love of leverage to return.

"At this point I'm just trying to pay down some debt and get a little ahead. Anything beyond that is being put off," said Paul Shryer of Eveleth, who said he was holding steady in August and expected about the same this month.

"I will save a bit more," he added, "mostly because I will (be) a bit closer to the surface."

*********************************
What's your household economic outlook? Post below or drop us a line directly.

Minnesota's young women: Leaping in education, living home

Posted at 1:42 PM on August 4, 2010 by Paul Tosto (2 Comments)
Filed under: MinnEcon Indicator

I covered education for a decade in the Twin Cities before coming to MPR and the economy. So when I see data on either topic that surprise me, I want to know more.

I'm fascinated today by a newly released report from the state's demography office detailing the education and economic changes of young people in Minnesota in the past decade.

I started looking at the gender splits in the data and didn't know what to make of them.

I have a theory (keep reading). I'll be following up with the study's author. But I really need help understanding what might be happening. Take a look at the report and then tell me what you see. Post below or contact me directly at MinnEcon.

Here are the charts that got me interested. The first shows a significant increase during the decade in the percentage of young women living home. (Click on the chart for a larger view.)

My first thought was that it was recession related. We've written a bunch about the Great Recession forcing young adults back home with mom and dad. That wouldn't explain, though, why the percentage of women at home has risen significantly while the percentage of males has stayed about the same during the decade. And the report discounts the recession's effect

Trend data show a slightly higher percentage of young adults living with their parents now than in the past, though this shift may not be statistically significant. This change is probably not related to the recent recession, which did not begin until 2008.

Stagnant wages and higher rates of college attendance among women are possible factors.

The stagnant wages idea was interesting, though Census Bureau data shows Minnesota isn't the worst in the nation.

So then I looked at the demographer's data on college attendance.

We've written before about how Minnesota women are outpacing men in education. But you can really see the difference in the past decade.

So what does it mean?

Here's my theory: Hmong women.

The emergence of Hmong girls and young women as academic success stories has really flown under the radar. But it's there.

As a group, they've embraced education as the path to independence. Many, though, are still bound by family traditions.

That means many Hmong women live at home and help with family work at the same time they take on the rigors of college, which would explain the demographer's data.

My colleague Sasha Aslanian produced a terrific story last fall on the generation of Hmong women in college. It was a first person account by Kao Choua Vue.

If you listen to that story and look back at the demography report, you can't help but think something really good is happening. It's evidence of an economic and social transformation underway.

We're number 8!

Posted at 11:39 AM on August 2, 2010 by Paul Tosto
Filed under: MinnEcon Indicator

I'll admit a love - hate relationship with rankings. I mostly hate them because they rarely tell you anything enlightening and are, at best, cheap entertainment.

But I like cheap entertainment, too.

So with that, I stumble into CNBC's recently published America's Top States for Business 2010 where I discover that, as far as CNBC's concerned, Minnesota's a good place to do business, coming in at number eight.

Even more intriguing, Minnesota's number five when it comes to the state's overall economic health in 2010, better than 2009.

There are lots of numbers to wade through. Some of it's goofy -- most of the "Top Workforce" states are weak union states in the South. (I'll take Minnesota's highly educated workforce any day.)

But one thing jumped out at me -- CNBC ranked Minnesota 19 for "Access to Capital," one of the best Midwest states in that category and far better than Wisconsin, which ranked 30th.

There's no doubt Minnesota backed an angel investor tax credit this year in part because Wisconsin has one and there was fear about keeping Minnesota start-up companies from crossing the St. Croix.

The CNBC report -- warts and all -- suggests that maybe Minnesota is a better place than we think to raise money for business.

Overall, we're not talking about Minnesota being one of the worst places for business in the U.S. We're talking about it being one of the best. As we slog though the Great Recession, that's one place where we can hang some hope.

What's Minnesota's business climate look like in your part of the state? Post something below or contact us directly at MinnEcon and tell us what you see.

Your Minnesota economy: Looking better for June?

Posted at 11:36 AM on May 26, 2010 by Paul Tosto (1 Comments)
Filed under: MinnEcon Indicator, Saving & spending

Maybe it's the weather. The sunshine and warmer temps around Minnesota always make us a little more hopeful no matter our economic circumstances.

Or maybe some of us are finally starting to feel the recovery.

Some recent, relatively upbeat economic signs in Minnesota -- including a downtick in the unemployment rate are matching up with what we're hearing from sources in MPR's Public Insight Network

We asked them to give us their personal economic forecast for June. Will you be saving or spending? What non-essentials will you buy? (You can add your voice here.)

The couple dozen responses we've received so far have been more upbeat than when we asked these kinds of questions last fall.

"Things are improving, drastically. April and May have been the best months I've seen in two years," said Jason Rysavy, owner / founder of Catalyst Studios, an interactive ad agency based in Minneapolis.

Rysavy's given us perspectives before on life as a small business owner in the recession. So we paid attention when he told us things were looking better.

"Work is looking up so we're making a few major purchases that we've been holding off on for a couple years. Business picked up dramatically which allows us to have a bit more flexibility with cash."

It's also prompted him to spend some spend some money on his home, including new living furniture -- music to the ears of retailers.

Tim Eiler, a consultant from St. Bonifacius, also sees his economic situation improving in June. But he's still wary of the economic and political problems in Europe and Asia and how that will affect the U.S.

So he's still in saving mode. "Putting off deciding whether to send daughter to private school. Also putting off purchase of motorcycle."

Cinda Yager expects June to be a better month. But that doesn't mean she's not worried. She'll start a temp job as an administrative assistant. Growth in temporary jobs are often a good early sign of economic recovery.

Still, she's not planning to buy only essentials next month and is putting off buying shoes, clothes and a new humidifier.

Will she able to kick into savings mode? Not yet.

"I have not been saving money since I've been living off savings," she told us. "I expect that to turn around by the end of the year (I hope).

*************************************************
How's June looking for you? Tell us what you're seeing in your own economic forecast.

We'll pull together responses and highlight them in upcoming MinnEcon posts. You can also share some thoughts below.

Your career. What happened? Your stories

Posted at 12:00 PM on April 29, 2010 by Paul Tosto (1 Comments)
Filed under: Jobs & unemployment, MinnEcon Indicator

We asked you recently to tell us what the recession's done to your career and we asked you to write short.

Really, really short. Six words, precisely.

MinnEcon readers flooded us with creative responses from practical ("Raise? +0%, Insurance? +26%. Tough year.") to sadly philosophical ("Insurance, overtime, vacation. Unhappy; stifling dreams.") to surprisingly upbeat ("Career colleges booming. Job is safe.")

So then we threw the question to MPR's Public Insight Network, asking for their six word career stories -- and the story behind those words. Once again our sources gave us a vivid view on the recession. (You can add your voice here.)

3 jobs rolled into one.

That's how Susanna Patterson of Stillwater summed her career in the past year or so.

"Layoffs at our company have the 'survivors' filling in the gaps created by our less-fortunate colleagues," she wrote. Her job(s): "Secretary, accounting, receptionist, sample department, etc., etc., etc...."

Art. What art? Why buy art?

Minneapolis painter Christi Furnas said she learned that,"after the housing bubble popped, having walls was more important for people than finding original art to hang on them." She's confident, though things will pick up.

Here's one that surprised us: Churches hurting, want younger male pastor

"The large number of baby boomers who are pastors are having trouble finding calls because they are too expensive," wrote Karen Grandall, a pastor from Spring Valley. "As one council member said, 'Why have a Cadillac when we can get a Chevy?' We have to take part time in order to find something."

Click on the map icons to read stories of how the recession's affected the professional lives of your friends and neighbors.

The recession turned into a blessing for some, a chance to change gears professionally.

"I was laid off from my job as a blogger for a web development firm but have found a new career as a freelance writer. Best thing to ever happen," said Jodi Chromey of Shakopee, who threw a bit of math in her headline: 11 months of cube-free freelance > 9-5 cube dwelling

Kevin Sweeney of St. Paul feels like he's had some job security in this recession.

"I work in corrections and unfortunately, a small minority of people have just not figured out how to live honestly and peacefully with their neighbors. They keep breaking the laws and I keep my job. It's really too bad things are that way," said Sweeney, a juvenile probation worker who summed up his career: Still have one and APPRECIATE it!

Others told us how their lives changed when the recession torpedoed career plans of family members.

Mothering with family in the basement.

That's how Meeka Urlaub, a stay at home mom and international education worker in Minneapolis summed up her experience. "My sister-in-law and her family have moved into our basement, since her husband has been out of work for over a year."

Job-wise, there wasn't much to applaud in the most recent Minnesota unemployment numbers. We'll get the next set of numbers May 20. But experts have told us not to keep our job growth expectations low in 2010.

Maybe the hardest story to read came from Charles Oakes of Willmar. He told us he manages a community rehabilitation program that finds jobs for adults with disabilities.

"I have laid off staff, cut benefits, reduced wages, increased co-pays, and canceled most training and memberships. I have disappointed more employees & friends in the last 18 months than in my entire 30 year career in nonprofit management," he wrote.

"I have personally had my pay and benefits reduced too for things that we have no control over at all."

He summed up his experience in six-plus words: Nonprofit leader, hatchet man now. Woe is us...

Post your six words below or drop us a line.

BONUS: Check out the responses we've received on MPR's Facebook page

NOTE: Our efforts were inspired by SMITH Magazine's ongoing Six-Word Memoir project. SMITH and our public media colleagues across the country are exploring six-word economy stories. Check it out.

Also, read the newest entries at SMITH -- 6 words on the financial crisis.

Economic Lookout: At Duluth job club, a portrait of unemployed

Posted at 12:00 PM on April 23, 2010 by Paul Tosto
Filed under: Economic Lookouts, Greater Minnesota, Jobs & unemployment, MinnEcon Indicator

MinnEcon note: JP Rennquist told us in December he was "new to unemployment" but working his contacts and staying positive. In his first Economic Lookout report, he gives us a look at the challenges of being jobless in Duluth and the hope for better days.

Interested in being an Economic Lookout? Contact us directly at MinnEcon.

Economic Lookout
JP Rennquist | Duluth

Monday Morning Job Club, Duluth. After a six week hiatus I finally returned to job club last week. And it had grown.

The club is a semi-formal gathering of unemployed people led by staff from the Minnesota workforce center and the city of Duluth workforce development program.

We had our biggest group ever.

That may have been due to the fact that we had a recruiter from Thrivent Financial for Lutherans looking to fill a few spots in its newly expanded Duluth office.

Or it may have been just that unemployment keeps rising here in Duluth, in spite of a few glimmers of hope .

I started coming to job club after I lost my non-profit job last November. It draws people from the old economy (teachers, manufacturers, construction workers) and the new economy (writers, web developers, telemarketers).

Some are displaced homemakers dealing with an empty nest, a divorce or the loss of a primary wage-earner in their family. Some are ex-prisoners navigating the difficult passage from incarceration to independence. Others are baby boomers nearing the end of their professional careers or young adults at the dawn of their working lives.

One man is trying to get back into the workforce after taking six years off to be a stay at home dad to his special needs daughter, who is now in school. Another guy, a recent addition who showed up during my hiatus, got laid off by Sam's Club when they outsourced their food samplers to an outside firm.

The structure is pretty simple: start with who you are and the kind of work you have done or what you might be interested in doing, later we go around the tables again and share the results from our efforts or things we'd like help with. If there is time, we share goals for the next week. Along the way there is a lot of conversation and, perhaps surprisingly, a lot of laughter.

There is definitely a lifeboat philosophy there - people realize that everyone is essentially in the same boat and they offer lots of support, encouragement and ideas to other job seekers.

Each person gets a piece of heavy card stock paper to write their name on and put in front of them on the table.

When I started coming, the name cards fit neatly in two rows on just one table. Now they cover almost two full tables. There is a stack of cards about 2 inches high for people who have been gone for awhile, either for jobs or other distractions. That's where I found mine.

I had gotten a job but instead of a new career it turned into a temporary position. They couldn't afford me, "after all," the owner said, sales were in a real slump.

I was a little embarrassed to go back after telling everyone I had a job. The people at job club were sorry to hear that my job didn't work out, but they were also happy to welcome me back.

Most of them had been through something similar before.

In March Duluth's Advanstar communications announced they were laying off 100 employees. Well, they weren't just laying them off, the company, which specializes in publishing, events and web design, said it was outsourcing them to a company in Asia.

Some of those outsourced employees have already been to job club even though their severance packages run through the summer.

Being unemployed is not fun in this job market, it's a real challenge, it's demoralizing and sometimes it seems like it's never gonna end.

But for me, and a thick stack of other attendees, Monday morning job club at least makes the job search much more bearable, and for some people who have come and moved on now, it's helped to make their searches successful.

JP Rennquist describes himself as "pretty broke" but with a million-dollar view of Lake Superior from his modest home in Duluth's Central Hillside neighborhood. He runs a couple of micro-businesses out of his house, does a lot of volunteering and is "waiting for his ship to come in."

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Want to be an Economic Lookout? Drop us a line.

A scrapper's life in the recession

Posted at 12:00 PM on April 21, 2010 by Paul Tosto (2 Comments)
Filed under: MinnEcon Indicator, Twin Cities metro

MinnEcon note: Sarah Boden, a student interning this semester at MPR News and working with MPR's Public Insight Network, ventured out recently to some north Minneapolis scrap yards to see who's scrounging and selling metal in the recession.

"Many scrappers I talked to live on the fringes of society," Boden said. "Then there are some average people just trying to make money."

Here's her report.

The search for scrap metal is a constant hustle, and a year ago it was a hustle that didn't pay, so many stopped scrapping.

These days, "scrappers" can earn a good living.

Precious metal retailer Kitco reports that copper cost less than $2 per pound back in April 2009. A year later copper is worth more than $3.50 a pound.

On a recent afternoon, scrappers hurried to get their day's scrap to Kirschbaum-Krupp before it closed at 4:30. It's one of three scrap yards located in north Minneapolis where people can sell metal for profit.

The scrappers I spoke with say they find their metal in alleys or on the side of the road; some may even knock on stranger's door if they see a pile of scrap in a person's yard and ask for the material.

Charles Davis stopped scrapping back in October 2008 right after metal prices plunged.

"You be working too hard in that cold to get a little bit of nothing." But now that prices have improved Davis has returned to scrapping. The day I interviewed him, was his first day back at Kirschbaum-Krupp.

The price of scrap can fluctuate dramatically, and not just because of supply and demand. Bob Garino, director of commodities for the Institute of Scrap Recycling Industries, says that speculation also drives metal prices.

"Speculators, at times, have an undue influence on prices in the short term, both on the upside as buyers and on the downside as sellers."

Because of that, scrapping can be a guessing game.

To get a feel for where prices are headed, scrappers will call a scrap yard and simply ask the price of metal on that particular day. That's just as well, because even the "experts" have trouble reliably gauging market trends.

"Because of unforeseen events long-term forecasts, analysis frequently don't bear fruit and need to be revised on a regular basis," says Daniel Edelstein, a copper commodity specialist with the U.S. Geological Survey.

The fickle market makes scrap an uncertain business for the yard owners, too.

Within walking distance of Kirschbaum-Krupp there are the two other scrap yards and the experienced scrapper knows to check prices at each before selling.

A year ago when scrap metal prices were at an extreme low, Kirschbaum-Krupp's owner Dusty Gibbs says the company couldn't pay its electric bill the market was so bad.

Nobody was buying metal, therefore the prices weren't worth a scrapper's effort, "They just sat on their material," recalls Gibbs. "Why would they bring anything in?"

BONUS
Stories from the MPR Archives:
December 23, 2009
One hospitalized, two arrested when copper theft goes awry

May 20, 2007
High scrap prices are a mixed blessing

Great Recession: December 2007 to ?

Posted at 11:18 AM on April 16, 2010 by Paul Tosto
Filed under: Jobs & unemployment, MinnEcon Indicator, Saving & spending

From economist Louis Johnston, St. John's University | College of St. Benedict

On Monday, the group that makes the official call on recessions and expansions said that while things were looking up, it would be "premature" to date the end of this downturn.

There's no doubt data are sending mixed signals.

Industrial production, Gross Domestic Product (the chief measure of U.S. output) and similar data tell us that the economy is starting to grow. Industrial production has increased every month since June 2009. GDP grew in the 3rd and 4th quarters of 2009.

On the other hand...

Household after-tax income has been flat, leading some analysts to worry that household consumption will slow down in the coming months. Employment data tell us that firms are boosting output through increased productivity of their current workers -- not through new hiring.

Add to all of this the fact that recessions affect different areas of the country in different ways and at varying times and you can see why it's hard to pick an end-of-recession date.

Minnesota, fortunately, looks to be past the trough, though the unemployment data released on Thursday indicate that employment is not yet growing.

Officially, a recession is a period in which the economy grows at a rate significantly below normal. It can last from a few months to more than a year. Nationally, the economy last peaked in December 2007.

Experts at the National Bureau of Economic Research want to make sure they get the recession's end-date right. They do not want to go back and revise it if new data show their first choice was wrong.

What ultimately matters, though, is not the exact date the recession ended. What matters is whether households and businesses believe that their economic prospects are looking up, and they begin to consume, invest, and hire.

Johnston teaches economics at St. John's University and the College of St. Benedict and is a regular voice on MPR News.

Bonus info: Here's a chart showing annual changes in U.S. economic growth during recessions and expansions. (Click on the chart for a larger view.)

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Economic Lookout: Tempered optimism in Rochester

Posted at 12:00 PM on April 19, 2010 by Paul Tosto
Filed under: Economic Lookouts, Greater Minnesota, MinnEcon Indicator

MinnEcon note: Teri Gibbons is a Rochester nurse and source in MPR's Public Insight Network who keeps a close eye on her local economy. In her first Economic Lookout dispatch, she gives us a thumbnail view of Rochester.

Interested in being an Economic Lookout? Contact us directly at MinnEcon.

Economic Lookout
Teri Gibbons | Rochester

Family members tell me more are eating out and shopping which has increased their hours in minimum wage jobs. If someone wants to be a newspaper carrier there are plenty of openings.

But what about nurses and teachers?

Teachers and paraprofessionals fear budget cuts may mean larger class size and less services. It will be a summer of wondering if the funds will be there for them to return or not.

This has happened before and the funds were available at the last minute but will this be the case again?

Hospitals are hiring from within, shifting staff from areas that were barely adequately staffed for the most part; nursing home positions are not as available as they once were.

So, my question to you is ... as we drive on our improved roads to school or to the hospital are we any better off?

I'll grab a fast food sandwich on my way to Wal-Mart and ponder this.

Teri Gibbons is a registered nurse in Rochester.

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Economic Lookout: High demand, few jobs in western Minnesota

Posted at 10:00 AM on April 14, 2010 by Paul Tosto
Filed under: Economic Lookouts, Greater Minnesota, Jobs & unemployment, MinnEcon Indicator

Economic LookoutBrent Olson | Ortonville

MinnEcon note: Brent Olson was one of the first voices in our original Economic Lookouts project. He's a county commissioner and keeps a close eye on the economics of western Minnesota.

He helped us last summer examine job creation and the stimulus.

Today, he shares a story of high demand in Big Stone County for a single government job.

Based on the county jobless rate, Olson figures "nearly thirty percent of the people looking for a job applied for ONE job."

Check out Olson's report, then post your thoughts below.

Interested in being an Economic Lookout? Contact us directly at MinnEcon.

(Unemployment in Big Stone County (click on the chart for a larger view)

Source: MN Dept of Employment and Economic Development, seasonally unadjusted

Olson is a western Minnesota writer and Big Stone County commissioner

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Six word recession. Your stories mapped.

Posted at 12:00 PM on April 7, 2010 by Paul Tosto
Filed under: Jobs & unemployment, MinnEcon Indicator

Numbers don't tell the story of the Great Recession. Data give us a look from 30,000 feet. But it's what you're sharing from your vantage point in your neighborhood that really tells what's happening.

A few weeks ago, we put the challenge out to you and sources in MPR's Public Insight Network to sum up your life in this economy in six words. We've highlighted a bunch already. (You can add your voice here.)

Today, I wanted to try to make it easy to read the responses from Minnesotans in our Network who said we could share their stories and use their names.

Click on the map icons to read them.

Click here to see a full page version of the map.

Here are a few that caught my attention.

Twenty three. Still living with parents. Ugh. That's how Matthew Porter of Inver Grove Heights summed up his Great Recession.

I'd wanted to move out of my parents' place for a long time. My friend had offered to be my roommate in Minneapolis while he went to school at the U of M, and I'd said I'd needed to find a better job first. I went searching, and found this great $13/hr full time spot that did contract work for Home Depot, aced the interview, passed the drug test, etc.

I waited a good while waiting for that call to say I'm hired, consistently calling myself and pestering the poor man on the other end, until he told me finally that he'd just had to lay off about 20 people, and I wouldn't be hired after all. I've done a few jobs here and there since, in the long run, I'm still stuck in my low-paying retail spot.

At the age of 58 it is looking unlikely that I will be able to have a regular, safe job. I am a part time consultant/contractor no benefits, moving into my unhealthy years, and no support system. Jobs that I have applied for end up hiring less experienced/qualified but lower cost hires. Frustrating yes, insurmountable, no.

Still, she's been able to keep all eight full time and one part-time staff "employed through a combination of great team work and paying attention to keeping down expenses."

Unfortunately no one, not even the boss (i.e. me!), have had raises or made any production bonuses (based on increased sales & receipts.

We are continuing to work hard to enhance our patients lives by providing the best possible eye health and vision care and are staying optimistic about the coming year.

We'll get a better picture next week when state officials update the state's jobless rate. When it drops, the lives of Minnesotans will improve and, hopefully, we'll see these stories turn from struggle into hope.

Share your six word recession story with us now. We'll add it to the map.

NOTE: Our efforts were inspired by SMITH Magazine's ongoing Six-Word Memoir project.

Is the media depression over?

Posted at 11:57 AM on April 6, 2010 by Chris Farrell
Filed under: MinnEcon Indicator

From chief economics correspondent Chris Farrell

The mood of the media business is gloomy. Journalism has not moved easily into the digital age. Losses have been common and layoffs widespread over the past few years.

Question is, is the media depression over? That's what the stock market seems to be saying.

Of course, we know that the stock market--the collective judgment of millions and millions of investors worldwide world risking money and reputation daily--isn't always right. (The late, lamented real estate bubble attests to that. The same goes for the dot.com boom and bust.) Nevertheless, the market is a wondrous competitive "system of telecommunications" in economist Friedrich Hayek's apt metaphor. The price signal should be taken seriously.

Baron Biggs, the long-time investor and hedge fund manager, gives these striking examples of the equity markets ability to sense major turning points in his book, Wealth, War and Wisdom. The British stock market bottomed out in late June 1940 and it climbed higher even before the Battle of Britain was over. The Dow hit bottom in the spring of 1942 and started rising before the tide of war changed with America's victory over Japan in the Battle of Midway. Stocks traded in Berlin peaked as German forces reached the outskirts of Moscow in early December, 1941. "`Those were the three great momentum changes of World War II -- although at the time, no one except the stock markets recognized them as such,'' he writes.

Well, over the past 12 months the benchmark S&P 500 index is up 45%. Yet the Powershares Dynamic Media Portfolio has soared 88% over the same time period. I've drawn the chart over a two year period to show the decline, the rebound, and the recent outperformance of the Media Portfolio vs. the S&P 500. (The S&P is the brown line; the Media Portfolio is the blue line.)

Here is a list of the holdings in the exchange traded fund.

PBS - Dynamic Media Portfolio
As of 4/5/2010
% of Fund

Viacom Inc. 5.33%
Comcast Corp. (Cl A) 5.15%
Walt Disney Co. 5.07%
News Corp. (Cl A) 4.97%
Time Warner Inc. 4.94%
McGraw-Hill Cos. 4.68%
DIRECTV 4.61%
HSN Inc. 3.46%
RCN Corp. 3.39%
Warner Music Group Corp. 3.03%
Lamar Advertising Co. (Cl A) 2.89%
Entercom Communications Corp. (Cl A) 2.87%
E.W. Scripps Co. (Cl A) 2.86%
Interpublic Group Of Cos. 2.84%
Washington Post Co. (Cl B) 2.82%
Gannett Co. Inc. 2.79%
Valassis Communications Inc. 2.78%
CBS CBS Corp (Cl B) 2.76%
SNI Scripps Networks Interactive Inc. Cl A 2.76%
HHS Harte-Hanks Inc. 2.74%
MNI McClatchy Co. (Cl A) 2.64%
OMC Omnicom Group Inc. 2.63%
DISH DISH Network Corp. (Cl A) 2.61%
JW.A John Wiley & Sons Inc. (Cl A) 2.56%
NYT New York Times Co. (Cl A) 2.53%
SCHL Scholastic Corp. 2.21%
SIRI Sirius XM Radio Inc. 2.08%
IHS IHS Inc. Cl A 2.54%
Google Inc. (Cl A) 4.88%
AOL Inc. 2.59%

What's going on? It could be that the media company cuts have been so draconian that even a modest uptick in the economy will translate into higher profits. It's a reasonable bet. But it could also be that investors are gambling that media companies through trial and error have a better grasp of their digital strategies, from establishing partnerships to embracing multimedia. And, of course, the optimists could be simply wrong.

The stock market suggests this is a story worth pursuing. Stay tuned.

Your six word recession: heartwrenching, funny, revealing

Posted at 12:00 PM on March 25, 2010 by Paul Tosto (7 Comments)
Filed under: Jobs & unemployment, MinnEcon Indicator

You did it. You captured the pain, wry humor and resilience of surviving the Great Recession. In six words (mostly).

I wasn't sure what we'd get when we asked MinnEcon readers and Minnesotans in MPR's Public Insight Network to describe their recession experience in six words. More than 150 200 responded.

You gave us a revealing look at life in Minnesota in this recession. Let's keep it going. If you haven't tried it yet, give it a shot and describe your recession in six words.

My colleague Molly Bloom was intrigued by these responses from our Network:

"Holding my breath, survivor's guilt, re-evaluating," wrote Shane Baker, a Rochester teacher.

"I've fallen and I can't get back up (yet)," said Todd Lewandoski a former airline pilot from West. St. Paul. "Very profitable airline suddenly closed," he added. "Airline retirement raised from sixty to sixty five combined with the economy means no jobs for at least two more years." He's now pursuing a nursing degree.

Check out the wordle that Steve Mullis, MPR's associate online editor, built from the responses we got from our Network, from the Web site posts and from responses this morning to MPR's Today's Question.

A wordle creates a visual image where the words that are used most are the largest.

Mullis was struck by two words that ended up fairly prominent: "Back home."

That's been a recurring theme we've heard from the Network during the recession -- adult children, damaged financially in the recession, moving home with parents and relatives.

We've posted on that before. Today, Kerri Miller and the Midmorning program took a deep look at the issue. Click the play button to listen.

Many of the words in the wordle (click on it for a larger view) need little explanation. Job. Debt. Broke.

But I have to say I was struck by the size of the word "fortunate."

OK, now it's your turn. Sum up your recession in six words. Or you can just post something below. Here are my six: Surviving on journalism despite average skills.

Scroll through some of the responses we've received:

Below are the responses Mullis found intriguing. Take a look. Are you in there?

"Graduating has never been so terrifying."

"Old job vanished. Fortuitously, new job."

"We don't mind Mac & Cheese."

"I'd like to be Joe Mauer."

"keep crappy job at all costs."

"Me: Poor. You: Same. Us: Exhausted."

NOTE: Our efforts were inspired by SMITH Magazine's ongoing Six-Word Memoir project.

Describe your recession in six words

Posted at 11:30 AM on March 23, 2010 by Paul Tosto (58 Comments)
Filed under: MinnEcon Indicator

Our public media friends at economystory.org recently invited people to write their economy memoir in six words.

It generated some cool responses. So I thought I'd borrow it, retool it and ask Minnesotans to sum up their Great Recession in six words.

April will mark one year since MinnEcon went from experiment to commitment. We've asked Minnesotans daily to share their stories of perseverance, struggle and humor. You've responded in great detail.

We've tried to highlight as many of those responses as we could but it's been a challenge.

So this time we want folks to write short.

Send us six words (OK, it can be a little longer but not much) that capture your life in the economy the past two years.

Here are mine: Surviving on journalism despite average skills.

Post yours below or contact me directly.

NOTE: Our efforts were inspired by SMITH Magazine's ongoing Six-Word Memoir project.

Sign of the times: 4,000 Minneapolis youth seek 1,300 summer jobs

Posted at 8:00 AM on March 2, 2010 by Paul Tosto (1 Comments)
Filed under: Jobs & unemployment, MinnEcon Indicator

Back in December, we wondered how many kids would apply for a popular Minneapolis youth summer jobs program, thinking it might be a barometer of how young people were faring in the recession.

Now we have our answer -- a record 4,000-plus applications for STEP-UP.

Notification letters are going out this week. Program leaders still hope to have a total of 1,350 jobs recruited and in place. But right now they're 300 jobs short and are busy contacting employers.

(If you're a business interested in the program, here's some information.)

These are paid summer internships. Youth ages 14 to 21 are matched with jobs in private businesses, government, non-profits and education.

The jobs pay at least $7.25 an hour, so they are a big deal in a recession that's hit young people particularly hard. Last summer, STEP-UP received 3,200 applications for 1,300 jobs.

This year's roughly 4,050 applicants are "definitely a record since STEP-UP was branded as such in 2004," said director Tammy Dickinson.

"I think it shows how much teens have been impacted by the job market, in many cases having to work much harder to find work since in some cases adults that are unemployed are shifting into jobs that teens would typically fill," Dickinson said.

No doubt.

In its teen summer jobs outlook report last spring, the state employment and economic development office saw an entry level labor market getting more crowded as "experienced workers are hit by layoffs, older workers delay retirement and brand-new college graduates seek employment outside their fields of study."

With so many breadwinners unemployed, it would be easy to dismiss the struggles of teens and young adults who are trying to find work. Minnesota's newest overall jobless numbers will be out this morning and no one's expecting a turnaround. (UPDATE: jobless rate came in at 7.3% for January, down slightly from 7.4% in December.)

But as we noted in a prior post, that summer cash isn't just "fun money" any more. In many households it's a vital piece of household income.

Dickinson says many of the employers that were on board last year are working with STEP-UP this year because of their commitment to the program and the benefits the interns bring to their companies.

However, "we are still stretching in the tighter economy to get enough employers to pledge jobs for 2010."

Creighton's MN economy report: positives but slow job growth

Posted at 2:30 PM on March 1, 2010 by Paul Tosto
Filed under: Jobs & unemployment, MinnEcon Indicator

We're going to be deluged this week with Minnesota budget and economy news. The newest state unemployment data comes out Tuesday morning.

Also that morning comes the state's newest economic forecast.

It's likely that the data in both of those reports will line up with what Creighton University's very good economic analysis told us today about Minnesota.

Creighton creates a "leading economic indicator" for a bunch of Midwest states, including Minnesota. It's based on a survey of business supply managers and a score of 50 or higher indicates expected growth.

Minnesota's score rose to 57.4 in February, up from 51.4 in January, survey data released today show. It's the seventh straight month indicating growth.

And that's the good news. The bad news is that Minnesota's lost nearly 30,000 manufacturing jobs "or more than 8.5 percent of its manufacturing base," Creighton economist Ernie Goss notes.

"For the second quarter of 2010, based on our surveys, I expect minimal manufacturing job gains and very modest overall job gains."

That's likely the message we'll get tomorrow in the state's economic forecast and jobless data: Worst is over, brighter days ahead for people with jobs. But for people that need jobs it will be slow going. Minnesota employment will not come roaring back in 2010.

I'll believe the recession's over when ...

Posted at 8:00 AM on February 4, 2010 by Paul Tosto
Filed under: MinnEcon Indicator

We asked Minnesotans back in November to finish one of these sentences: I"ll believe the recession's over when... or I'm feeling a recovery right now because ...

The overwhelming response? People still curious to see what a recovery looked like.

Minnesotans in MPR's Public Insight Network continue to send us their views so we decided to give everyone another crack at it.

If you see signs of a recovery, tell us and share a little detail. If not, tell us what it'll take to convince you the recession's done.

"I'll believe the recession's over when my two oldest sons are working again," Diane Bjorklund of Maplewood wrote us earlier this week. "They are both carpenters and have been off work more than they have been on the last two years."

Click on the map icons to read what others have been telling us.

Click the little box on the upper right hand corner of the map to see it in full screen.

Most of the map icons are lightening bolts indicating responses of people who, like Bjorklund, are not convinced the recession's over.

Technically, it probably is over. But it's going to take job growth for many people to believe it.

We'll get the latest national unemployment data on Friday.

Minnesota's jobless rate held steady at 7.4 percent in in December. The latest Creighton University data on Minnesota "points to a state economy on the mend" but with "very modest" job gains.

What are you seeing?

Click here and finish one of those sentences. Or post a little something below.

For farrier, 'biggest down I've seen'

Posted at 5:00 PM on January 15, 2010 by Paul Tosto
Filed under: MinnEcon Indicator

"The horse market, like any other livestock market, has its ups and downs," Kim Otterson wrote us recently. "Right now, this is the 'biggest down' I've seen."

Otterson's a farrier who lives nears Randall. She's expert at shoeing horses and caring for hooves. It's an ancient and vital trade. But it hasn't escaped the recession.

We've read and heard local and national stories of horses abandoned and mistreated in the recession.

But there's more at work than just a bad recession. Otterson, a source in MPR's Public Insight Network, gave us a deeper view.

"It's kind of a perfect storm. Surplus horses due both to the market cycle and the kill ban; high feed costs, due to a weather, and maybe even ethanol production, indirectly; and the economic situation on top of it."

People have horses for lots of reasons. My ex-husband and I raised registered Quarter Horses. We tried hard to have high quality breeding stock and normally managed to sell the colts at a profit. It was pretty much like raising beef cows, which we also did. Today, "profit" is nearly impossible to achieve.

Some people have horses because they like to compete with them, just enjoy riding them, or even just because they like having them around. For those people, they may be important, but they are a luxury, like a boat or a snowmobile. When they economy takes a nose dive, those luxuries are harder to afford and cutbacks are made.

I see it in my shoeing business, where hooves are trimmed less often & horses go barefoot who would normally have shoes. People aren't making the big road trips to go ride in the Black Hills, or elk hunt in Montana as much as a few years ago.

A few years ago, horses were selling pretty good and a lot of people decided to raise a colt or 2 every year, because it looked like "easy money". I think the result of that was a lot of poor quality colts (not ALL off them, of course), whose owners lacked to resources to get them properly trained and marketed. The result was a glut in the market of lower end horses.

I've had horses since I bought my first one in 1966. He was a weanling (just off his mom) part Arab colt. I paid $100 for him. That same colt, today, probably would bring less money.

Pressure from the Humane Society and other groups, shut down the last U.S. plant that slaughtered horses just before the recession hit. The spike in abandoned horses in the downturn has sparked a debate over reopening plants.

It's a tough issue. Opponents of horse slaughter say it's cruel and unnecessary. The American Veterinary Medical Association last year estimated equine rescue facilities wouldn't have the room or resources to aid the additional 90,000 to 100,000 horses every year that would no longer be able to be slaughtered in U.S. plants.

"I have some friends in the 'horse rescue' business," Otterson said. "They recently bought a unregistered weanling for a dollar. They tell me they have practically been overwhelmed with requests to take in horses from people who can't get them sold and can't keep them."

At one time, a horse no one wanted would get sold to the kill market and this kind of kept a floor on the prices. Bottom line, a horse was worth what it would bring by the pound and the price went up from there, based on the horse's potential and abilities.

Now, because the kill market has been made such a complicated deal, there basically is no bottom on the price. And the fact is, there are horses out there no one wants.

Maybe through no fault of their own, but there are horses who can't do a job for a variety of reasons, lameness, poor conformation, poor disposition, what ever, and no one wants them around. They need to go somewhere. That's just a fact.

Despite the gloom, Otterson's hopeful for the the spring and believes the horse business will most likely turn around.

"I've still got a couple of broodmares that I think too much of to sell at current prices but that I don't want to breed because I won't get enough for the colts to even break even," she said.

"My farrier business will survive, but it's going to take time before it gets back to where it was."

Brighter in the solar business?

Posted at 2:30 PM on January 5, 2010 by Paul Tosto
Filed under: Greater Minnesota, Jobs & unemployment, MinnEcon Indicator

We've been writing a lot of downer posts the past month. It's just the way things are for so many Minnesotans struggling in this economy. So when Jesse Dahl dropped a note today to tell us things were looking up for him, we jumped at the chance for something upbeat.

Back in 2008, Dahl was an unemployed union electrician on the Iron Range when he started helping MPR News get a fix on the Minnesota economy. He was among the original Economic Lookouts, the project that spawned MinnEcon.

The future wasn't looking all that great at that point. But then he started to transform himself. He trained to install solar electric arrays and started to get steady work. He caught a wave of interest in green energy that's grown with new federal incentives for renewable energy.

Now he's teaching others. A call over the summer from one of his old electrical instructors at Hibbing Community College led to a gig this fall teaching a new class on installing solar photovoltaic cells.

We asked Dahl to tell us what he's seeing in his classroom. His students, he said, come from a wide range of ages (19 to 40) and backgrounds.

Some of them are right out of high school, some have been working low wage jobs and are looking for a new career, some worked construction doing roofing and iron work, and a couple couldn't get into the electrical program this year because the classes were full so they are taking this first and next year they will start the electrical classes.

It is a certificate program. At the end of the year they will be taking the NABCEP entry level exam. (MinnEcon note: That's the North American Board of Certified Energy Practitioners).

The job prospects look pretty good. A couple of the students are willing to move, so I have been emailing with some of the contractors on NABCEP's job board to get info for the students.

The Cities offers a chance to some of the students, and there is a contractor in Duluth that installs solar.

The solar wave has come and gone before. It's hard to tell if it's here to stay this time or what will happen when the incentives end.

For now, at least, it's one pathway out of this lousy economy, toward a potentially bright future.

"My plan is to get my masters license this winter and my contractors license in the spring," Dahl told us. " I have been meeting with another electrician and we might team up and start our own shop."

BONUS INFO: Listen to an interview with Dahl over the summer on the solar electric business in Minnesota.

A food shelf sees people new to hunger

Posted at 6:00 PM on December 29, 2009 by Paul Tosto (2 Comments)
Filed under: Jobs & unemployment, MinnEcon Indicator

The recession's forced us to scrap many outdated assumptions about job security, savings, and the poor. How about who goes to food shelves? Chances are these days, it's one of your neighbors.

"We are seeing lots of people who are new to hunger, and a growing number of young children in hungry households," said Jennifer Schultz, congregational administrator for Northeast Community Lutheran Church in Minneapolis and coordinator for the church's Little Kitchen Food Shelf.

"We have seen a steady increase in hunger over the past two years, and we expect this to continue over the next two years as well, while we wait for the 'trickle down' of economic improvements to benefit those suffering the most ... The growing avalanche of people sliding from lower-middle class to below the poverty line shows no sign of slowing down."

Little Kitchen serves many people who don't yet have, or can't get, access to food through social services and the better-funded food shelves, Schultz, a source in MPR's Public Insight Network, told us recently.

I've gotten to know many of them and I'm familiar with their stories. A small portion of visitors, less than 10%, are homeless and/or struggling with chemical dependency issues. Because there is a Seniors food shelf nearby, only about 5% of visitors are over 55.

More than half of the individuals we feed are children; the majority of households served include two or more children, most of them either under 8 or over 13 years of age (MN poverty statistics indicate that children under 5 are among the fastest growing populations of those struggling with homelessness and poverty.)

Single adults tend to fall into those under-ten-percent categories I already mentioned, with the addition of persons with disabilities.

Families are hardest hit; the poor are getting poorer, and those who struggled to maintain stability before are now losing jobs, losing homes, and leaving behind marginal stability for a lifestyle of "high mobility" - they change addresses frequently because they can't make rent, they stay with relatives, they send their children to stay with relatives, and for the first time they are visiting food shelves to make ends meet.

The majority of our households with children contain two or more adults; usually at least one of these is doing some sort of work for pay.

The church started the food shelf two years ago to meet the needs of homeless in Northeast Minneapolis. These days, Schultz figures at least half the people who come to Little Kitchen are not currently receiving any emergency aid.

"My sense is that most people do not consider the food shelf an option when they first begin to lose ground financially," she said.

"Until recently, most people only thought about food shelves during the holidays, at charity giving times, and very few people would have known how to find a food shelf in their community."

Many of those who come to Little Kitchen today, "take pains to tell me they are looking for work, or have a partner who works; many come only 'as often as they have to,' rather than as often as we will serve them. "

A candid view of the Twin Cities housing market

Posted at 6:00 PM on December 28, 2009 by Paul Tosto
Filed under: Housing & mortgages, MinnEcon Indicator

We've been hearing a lot lately about the recovering Twin Cities housing market. While the numbers suggest the worst of times may be over, that doesn't mean things will get better soon.

That's the candid view we got recently from someone in the business.

"I'd like to say that we have hit bottom, that prices and sales have steadied. But I don't think so," said Jim Dooley, an independent real estate broker in Apple Valley who's part of MPR's Public Insight Network.

"Every scrap of good news is immediately evaluated and announced as the possible end to the downturn," he wrote us recently. "Most of those doing the evaluation are the same people that did not see the collapse coming!"

The current uptick in sales is mostly the result of the $8,000 first time buyer tax credit, and now the $6,500 three year owner credit. There would be far fewer gifts under Realtor's Christmas trees without these programs, that are scheduled to end in April 2010.

Jobs - where are they going to come from? Our state is broke (like 46 others), and more pain is going to take place in 2010. Cuts to the poor and social programs, layoffs of teachers and government workers, more people moving in with family because they have to.

Even people with reliable income and low debt are affected. Everyone needs to sell their home sometime. Buyer mentality right now is that everything is on sale. Solid homes feel the sting of the 2 foreclosed properties down the street that sold at a big discount. Less money available to put down on that retirement town home.

It is disheartening to take a buyer out to look at houses, and have 50% or more be short sales or foreclosures. Cold, empty, forlorn properties. Someone's broken dreams.

A couple weeks ago the Minneapolis Area Association of Realtors applauded November data showing only a 2.9 percent year-over-year decline in median home sale prices and a slight increase from the prior month. The November data, it said, offered the "surest sign we've seen yet that we're on recovery road..."

Dooley, though, notes there was a big uptick in real estate closings in October and November because buyers thought the first time home buyer program was going to end. He expects a drop in business as soon as the tax advantages end in April.

Looking back, he says it was easy to see the seeds of the crisis planted.

We saw it coming. Prices for years and years in Minnesota appreciated like 2 percent to four percent a year. Steady, sustainable growth. Buyers were required to "have some skin in the game", like at least $8,000+ on a bottom priced home.

Then, some brilliant lawmakers, bankers, regulators, and financial types decided to push 80-20 loans, where the buyer didn't have to put up any of their own money. NINJA loans (no income, no job, no assets - no problem!) became common.

The regulations and protections that were in place since the Great Depression were gone. Prices spiked for several years, everyone was encouraged to draw on their home's appreciated value and use it like a credit card.

Now the bubble has burst, and home prices are back at 2001-2002 levels.

We've speculated before that the housing market won't really recover until the short sale mess is cleaned up.

Dooley sees deeper problems. "In my opinion, we are in a vicious downward spiral that can only be alleviated by job creation," he said.

"I do not see any signs that the job market is improving, only getting worse ... The huge shortfall in the Minnesota state budget is going to really hurt everyone. How can 'experts' say we are in a recovery?"

12/29 BONUS INFO: My colleague Bob Collins takes a look at the newest home value data this morning and finds that thoughts of a home price rebound were premature.

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Got a perspective to share on Minnesota housing markets? Post below or contact me directly.

Click on the map icons below to see what others in our Network have said about the housing market the past year. Then add your story.

Minnesota's economy: not roaring back in 2010

Posted at 1:00 PM on December 21, 2009 by Paul Tosto
Filed under: Jobs & unemployment, MinnEcon Indicator

Nothing like a little holiday gloom for the new year.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis today published its district outlook for 2010. Job-wise, things are looking up if you live in the Dakotas and Montana.

The message for Minnesota and western Wisconsin? Not so good.

The Fed expects no employment growth in Minnesota during 2010 and only a slight increase in western Wisconsin.

We've been told before that 2010 will not be great . The Fed data, though, really hammers home the idea that the jobs recovery will be showing up later here than in other states.

Check out the data here, especially .pdf page 14.

Across the Minneapolis Fed's territory, we'll see some some small wage growth and stable prices. "New orders and production are expected to grow in 2010, but employment and capital investment will remain flat," the Fed said.

But unless something changes, it's going to be a tough jobs climate next year in Minnesota, which means it may be 2011 before it stops looking like a recession from where you're standing.

Is my take too gloomy? Check out the report and slides and tell me what you see. Post below or contact me directly.

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"I'll believe the recession's over..." or "I'm feeling a recovery now because..."

Finish one of those sentences and help us understand where you think the Minnesota economy's headed.

And click on the map icons below to read what sources in our Network have been telling us about the jobs climate around them.

A corporate jet caterer sees some signs of better times

Posted at 6:00 PM on December 18, 2009 by Paul Tosto
Filed under: Jobs & unemployment, MinnEcon Indicator, Small business

The corporate jet's taken a public beating during the recession, becoming the symbol of greed after the nation's auto titans jetted in to Washington to beg for bailouts.

Push that hype aside and we can learn something from the jet business, where traffic is starting to recover and that means businesses doing deals, which, hopefully, bring economic growth.

We got a view on this recently from Kristen Wasyliszyn, an entrepreneur who depends on business aviation. She owns Atikis Flight Catering, supplying food for corporate flights out of St Paul, Anoka and Flying Cloud airports.

Her niche took a big hit this year, but now she's seeing a "slow but steady increase in business prompting me to hire more people."

When the full on recession hit my business went down about 40 percent (a few months 60). I was forced to let go of quite a few people and work the hours myself. The FBOs (flight based operations) were laying off their people as well, back to bad trickle down days...

Planes were not coming to MPLS as they once were. When the big three auto maker CEOs had the "private jet" scandal, they didn't handle it well and hurt our entire industry.

In the last few months I have seen a slow but steady increase in business. I think the increase is A. the economy is getting better- B. My "competitors" not being able to weather the economic storm and possibly like many others going the way of the powdered wig.

Industry research shows corporate jet travel is coming back, with the number of flights up more than 20 percent in November and December compared to last year, led by the "large cabin jet" sector.

That jibes with what Wasyliszyn's vantage point.

"Lately, Ive been seeing more airplanes," said Wasyliszyn, a source in MPR's Public Insight Network. She feels like she'll be "back to full force in the upcoming year. That said, Ive always had rose colored glasses on..."

We got in a bit of an extended email conversation about business jets and elitism. Despite the champagne-and-caviar image it evokes, "I'm here to tell you no one is eating lobster," she said.

"A quick turkey box lunch to slam down while flying to meetings is the order of the day."

Youth jobs: no kidding around

Posted at 9:00 AM on December 18, 2009 by Paul Tosto
Filed under: Education, Jobs & unemployment, MinnEcon Indicator, Saving & spending

With so many breadwinners unemployed in this recession, it's easy to dismiss the struggles of teens and young adults who are trying to find work.

Laurie Stern of Chaska reminded me recently there's a deeper issue here. These days it's often not about teens earning "fun money" during the summer or over winter holidays. That cash is a vital piece of household income.

"Part-time jobs are a major portion of our children's savings for their college years," said Stern, part of MPR's Public Insight Network.

"Without the summer income, we will struggle to make sure they have money for books and miscellaneous spending during the year; needless to say, they will not be able to help with the tuition costs."

There's no doubt the the recession's been particularly rough on the economy's youngest workers.

"The entry level labor market is getting more crowded as experienced workers are hit by layoffs, older workers delay retirement and brand-new college graduates seek employment outside their fields of study," the state labor department wrote in its May teen summer jobs outlook report.

Federal stimulus money eased some of this year's problem. State officials said the money helped employ more than 6,000 Minnesota teens and young adults over the summer.

Still, the Federal Reserve of Minneapolis found the recession accelerating the trend of teens simply leaving the labor force.

When the Fed checked in on applicants for STEP-UP, a popular Minneapolis summer program, it found many teens having a difficult time getting a job. Demand for STEP-UP is expected to be huge next summer. This year, it received 3,200 applications for 1,300 jobs.

Stern said her son, a college sophomore has been working at a local grocery store since he turned 16.

During high school he struggled to keep up with school/activities because they wanted him to work more hours than he would have liked. Last summer when he came home after freshman year he was lucky to have a job that gave him some hours, but he didn't make as much as he would have liked over the summer.

They would not let him work recently over Thanksgiving break and we are still waiting to see if he will be able to work Christmas break.

They want to hire him back and need the extra help, but can't due to a hiring freeze. He has been unable to even find a work study job at school.

He's applied to many but all the positions have so many applying, sometimes close to 100 for 1 position, and he has yet to find a work study job. He is hopeful for second semester.

She also has a daughter who's a senior and looking for a job. "She has dropped off several applications at local fast food, tanning, theatre, etc. and has not yet received a call."

Stern said she and her husband have been seeking part time work to supplement the family income. "We have cut our expenses drastically and would not need very much to keep us in the black; however, that elusive part-time job is not to be found."

1/13 UPDATE: Stern dropped us a note to say her son got a work-study job at the University of Minnesota for spring semester.

"He will be working 12 hours a week in the map library; which is great because it is right in line with his geography major. He is also looking into internships for the summer but finding that most are unpaid, so he will need another job in addition to whatever internship he may find. The rest of us continue to look. "

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Do you know a teen or young adult who's found work or is trying to find work? Post below or contact me directly and tell me about the experience.

What will it take to get young people to help grow rural Minnesota?

Posted at 12:00 PM on December 14, 2009 by Paul Tosto (2 Comments)
Filed under: Greater Minnesota, Jobs & unemployment, MinnEcon Indicator

My MPR colleague Mike Caputo pulled together a neat virtual forum Friday asking if rural Minnesota was losing its best and brightest young people.

To build on that conversation, here's a map with a bunch of responses we received from sources in MPR's Public Insight Network on the issue of rural Minnesota, retaining and attracting young people and what can/should be done.

This is one of those issues where lots of voices are needed. So post below or click here to add your voice.

One of the interesting things to me is that some of Minnesota's rural areas boast the lowest unemployment rates in the state.

Counties in southwest Minnesota especially have stayed really resilient in the recession, with jobless rates consistently better than the state or the nation.

"Let's make it clear that it's not all gloom and doom in rural America," said Amy Hoglin, economic development director in Murray County in the southwest.

"We need to think about the messages that we're sending to young people. Yes, it's important for them to leave and get additional education and/or experience the world, but we're not encouraging them to come back. We do have some good career options here and those who are accustomed to and appreciate small town living can have a great life here!

In other parts of Minnesota, however, it's a different story.

Robyn Bertelsen of Ely told us her job as food service director for the local public schools was eliminated recently "due to budget constraints fueled by declining enrollment."

Ely's a tourist destination but "does not provide long term living wage jobs for most," shae said. "Not only have I watched the best and brightest leave our town for 'real opportunity', I have had to encourage my own daughter to 'get outta dodge' to pursue her goals."

Tell us what you're seeing.

BONUS INFO: MPR blogger Bob Collins posted his take on the rural issue, asking, "Why live in rural Minnesota?"

A turn for the better in the wheel business?

Posted at 4:00 PM on December 10, 2009 by Paul Tosto
Filed under: MinnEcon Indicator, Small business

Wheels move the U.S. economy. Mark Padellford sells all kinds of wheels. So when the recession hit, he felt it. These days, though, in some parts of his business, he's starting to see a turn for the better and that could mean good things for the economy.

Padellford, a source in MPR's Public Insight Network, is director of product and marketing for Pioneer Rim and Wheel, a Minneapolis-based company that distributes wheels for trucks, trailers farm equipment and other machines as well automotive repair parts across Minnesota, North Dakota and Wisconsin.

We asked him to share what he's seeing. He broke it down for us piece by piece.

Trucks

"The business started to change first in the truck wheel segment," said Padellford. "When there's no freight to haul, people park their trailers. When they're not driving their rigs, they're not bumping into curbs and needing wheels."

With a big chunk of the nation's truck fleet parked, that business has dried up. The forecast is bleak, he said. No one's looking for big increases in 2010 but the decline's expected to stop, he added.

Industry research bears that out. The Freight Transportation Research group declared in November that the recovery had begun but cautioned against expecting any "near-term major improvements for freight companies and their suppliers." The trucking business is starting to pick up more freight but it's a bumpy ride.

Farm equipment

"The Ag business has been down considerably from '08, but '08 was a great year," said Padellford. "This business seems to have flattened out. As the farmers go, so does this business segment." Tractor wheels and attaching components make up the bulk of this segment.

Cars

Padellford's company distributes car and light truck replacement parts to repair shops. From prior reporting, we know people put off car repairs in a recession.

The market's been down for about a year but there are signs of a turnaround. The number of vehicle miles driven is starting to see a small increase, he said.

Players in the automobile parts after-market are starting to see an uptick in comparable store sales, Padellford said, adding "You can only put off needed repairs so long."

Trailers

Wheels and parts that make up work and construction trailers (think of the trailer that holds up the flashing "construction work ahead" signs on the highway or any other piece of equipment that needs to be mobile) tanked in the recession along with the construction business.

But the trailer repair parts business seems to be picking up as construction, municipalities and fleets seem to be holding onto equipment longer.

Padellford says the federal stimulus bill can create some upside if money gets to the projects that really are "shovel ready."

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"I'll believe the recession's over..." or "I'm feeling a recovery now because..."

Finish one of those sentences and help us understand where the economy's headed.

And click on the map icons below to read what sources in our Network have been telling us about the jobs climate around them.

A corporate Christmas party for the unemployed

Posted at 8:00 PM on December 9, 2009 by Paul Tosto
Filed under: Jobs & unemployment, MinnEcon Indicator

Jeff Kornoelje's seen the number of unemployed people in his ministry rise with the recession and he's been trying to help. So next week his church will try something different -- a company Christmas party for people out of work.

"This is our first crack at it," says Kornoelje, pastor of administration at Grace Church in Eden Prairie. What began as a brainstorming session on how to help a group of unemployed church members blossomed into a free, community event that he says may bring in as many as 400 people, Christians and non-Christians.

Recruiters and other business executives will be there, too. The church hopes the networking leads to jobs.

As we've written before, religious leaders have a great vantage point on this economy. They witness the daily joys and struggles of their congregations and do their best to help people through.

At Grace Church, Kornoelje says a church group of people who are unemployed or seeking a job change has grown from 30 to 120 during the recession. People are feeling frustrated, he adds. "When they apply (for jobs) they know there's probably 400 other applicants."

The Christmas party idea was a "practical way to show some love...to share the love of Jesus Christ," he says. "Since we have a captive audience, we wanted to give them some practical advice on how to work a room."

We will offer the same classy hors d'oeuvres and nice door prizes that one would expect at a corporate Christmas party. But we also want the event to help advance the vision of our Crossroads Ministry by assisting attendees in finding jobs.

So there will be a time of informal coaching on how to effectively network or "work a room," with practical tips like holding your drink in your left hand so that your right hand isn't wet and clammy when shaking the hand of a prospective employer.

Attendees will then put into practice what they've learned by interacting in a "safe environment" with about 40 business professionals, CEOs, and recruiters. They will be on hand to meet with our guests, share their networking contacts, and to help them find jobs.

Kornoelje says you don't need to be a Christian to come to the event. The company Christmas party's been promoted on Linkedin and other sites.

12/18 UPDATE: Jeff Kornoelje says about 325 people came to the event from across the Twin Cities metro area with some folks coming from Mankato and Rochester areas. Reports he got indicated lots of networking and a few people seemed to even get some real solid job leads.

Says Kornoelje: "It was something that I am sure we will do again next year. "

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Click on the map icons below to read what Minnesotans in MPR's Public Insight Network have been telling us about the jobs climate around them. Then share your story.

What will demand be like for Minneapolis youth jobs program?

Posted at 9:00 PM on December 1, 2009 by Paul Tosto
Filed under: Jobs & unemployment, MinnEcon Indicator

Minneapolis Tuesday opened the application process for its popular STEP-UP summer jobs program. Demand for the program is a barometer of sorts on how young people are faring in this recession and it's worth watching how many apply for summer 2010 and how many are hired.

These are paid summer internships. Young people ages 14 to 21 are matched with jobs in private businesses, government, non-profits and education

The jobs pay at least $7.25 an hour and those who make it in must attend a work readiness training session. Click here for an application.

Last summer, STEP-UP received 3,200 applications for 1,300 jobs.

"As for the almost 1,900 youth that we were not able to serve, that unmet need was higher than normal (about 400 applicants higher than '08)," said director Tammy Dickinson. "I attribute that to both the tough economy and better marketing and awareness of the program."

The goal for 2010 is 1,300 to 1,350 jobs "but that will depend on being able to recruit enough employers and work sites, as well as some state funding amounts," she added.

You can find more information on the program here.

There's no doubt the youngest workers in this economy have had it particularly rough. In its May teen summer jobs outlook report, the state employment and economic development office wrote:

The entry level labor market is getting more crowded as experienced workers are hit by layoffs, older workers delay retirement and brand-new college graduates seek employment outside their fields of study.

Recent research by the Federal Reserve of Minneapolis found the recession accelerating the trend of teens simply leaving the labor force.

The Minneapolis Fed noted, "a tightening labor market hurts teen workers first and worst, because they tend to be on the bottom of the labor totem pole due to their lack of experience."

The dearth of opportunities for teens can also be seen in the rising interest in public jobs programs. An informal survey of Step-Up applicants (both accepted and rejected, conducted by program officials at the request of the fedgazette) found that many were having a difficult time getting a job. Said one 18-year-old applicant, "I never got so much as an interview before I did Step-Up."

Students are expected to be told in early March if they're in. Jan. 29 is the deadline to apply.

If you have any experience with STEP-UP or you're a teenager or young adult looking for work, please post below or contact me directly and share your story.

Blood as economic indicator?

Posted at 6:00 PM on November 25, 2009 by Paul Tosto
Filed under: MinnEcon Indicator

I'm a platelets donor and don't think much about my blood beyond that. But given my job, I was intrigued recently when I learned blood offered a window on the economy.

Turns out blood demand is a kind of economic indicator.

Here and across the country, the need for blood and blood products has dipped during the recession. One of the key reasons: people putting off elective surgeries.

Blood is always needed, officials are quick to point out, especially during the holidays. So this isn't a reason not to donate.

Still, the lower demand is a compelling little fact. Locally, "while donations are down slightly, so is the need for some blood products," said Nick Gehrig, spokesman for the American Red Cross in Minnesota.

"We believe this is due in part to fewer elective procedures being performed by hospitals overall," he said. "As the economy rebounds and people seek the elective procedures they may have put off, we expect the need for blood may rebound as well."

Gehrig pointed us to a report earlier this year by the American Hospital Association showing the majority of surveyed hospitals reporting a drop in elective surgeries and in-patient care compared to 2008.

It's not a big leap to see that hospitals need less blood because people are putting off surgeries because they don't have insurance because they lost their jobs and health coverage in the recession.

We've heard from folks in MPR's Public Insight Network during this recession who've told us stories of avoiding the doctor because they couldn't afford it.

We're hoping to get some more specific data on blood demand in the Twin Cities and post again on the issue.

If you've had to put off elective surgeries or doctors visits because of the recession or your health care coverage, you can help keep the conversation going. Post below or contact me directly and share your story.

At the extreme, the lousy economy and low demand is closing a blood bank in Alaska.

In terms of donations, the Red Cross has seen about a three percent decline since July, Gehrig said. "It's difficult to say whether that can be attributed to a single factor such as the flu, or for some other reasons such as the economy.

Local and national Red Cross blood supplies are currently sufficient, he added, "but as the holiday season approaches and many regular donors are traveling it will be increasingly important that donations continue to keep pace with the transfusion needs of patients. "

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We got interested in the blood demand question after a discussion with Karla Fenstermaker, a source in our Network who works for the American Red Cross in the Twin Cities.

We're always looking for different vantage points on the Minnesota economy. Tell us what you're seeing.

A Minnesota artist sees some signs of better times

Posted at 1:00 PM on November 23, 2009 by Paul Tosto
Filed under: Jobs & unemployment, MinnEcon Indicator

The arts get hit pretty hard in a recession. Spending for theater tickets, paintings and jewelry are easily sacrificed when people are just trying to pay bills.

So Robert Briscoe caught us a little by surprise when he wrote recently to say the economic picture was improving for him and some artists he knows.

Briscoe, 62 is a potter in Harris and a source in MPR's Public Insight Network. "For me, 2009 was a better than average year and I expect 2010 to be quite good for me and many of my artist associates," he wrote us.

I don't think I have a lot of clarity about the economy, just many anecdotal occurrences and talks with friends. Example: an event I was an exhibitor in Philadelphia last November ( which was fairly good in spite of the news) was 33% better this year.

Galleries that represent my work have been sending regular monthly checks
from sales for the last 6 months. This trend is growing and my galleries
are calling wanting more work as soon as possible.

Other artists I talk to are experiencing growing sales and a new level of optimism, from responses at their studio events as well as at their galleries. It is not universal by any means but it is real and expanding.

Friends who are jewelers, painters, glass artists, woodworkers and photographers are seeing improving conditions. Not fabulous yet but encouraging. Even some younger artists I regularly speak with are excited about the near and longer terms in their careers. I think the creative/handmade aspects of the economic landscape is
about to be very strong.

The last time we checked in with artists in our Network, it was April and things were not looking great. A painter had told us, "people are being very careful with their money.... people are still spending money but each purchase is smaller."

In the theater, "there is work out there but everyone is doing their best to hold on" with smaller paychecks for the same amount of work, a St. Paul playwright and director told us then.

I'm checking in with those folks and will post any updates they send.

Briscoe says prices for his work range from $20 to $600 with the average somewhere close to $75. Despite his brighter outlook, he acknowledges things are not perfect.

"I do know some artists who were able to support themselves with their work
two years ago who, in all probability, will not recover."

But he says he's exploring new tools, marketing and aesthetic directions and encouraging others to do the same. "I ask friends not to succumb to the flurry of bad news."

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Got a perspective on the arts business and where it's headed? Post below or contact me directly.

Click on the map icons below to see what other Minnesotans have been telling us about the jobs climate around them, then share your story.

Green shoots at the library?

Posted at 12:30 PM on November 2, 2009 by Paul Tosto
Filed under: Jobs & unemployment, MinnEcon Indicator

Loyal MinnEcon reader and library assistant Teresa Lynch helped us during the summer understand why Hennepin County workers were volunteering to take less money to save jobs.

Now she's pointing us to some potential green shoots on the economy.

Lynch dropped us a note recently to tell us she was feeling a recovery right now because the patrons she's been helping at her library are starting, slowly, to find work.

I've been hearing from people who come into the library where I work that they've either found jobs or are getting interviews! It's great to see some smiles on a few more faces.

A patron who's working at a very undesirable-type job at a grocery store had to miss an interview for a good paying, benefit earning position because he was "needed at the store." But the good news is that the interviewer agreed to see him anyway, and this man actually has hope!

Another man who's been searching on the internet at the library for months, walked by waving, telling me he found a job.

Things were pretty grim at that point in Wadena and across Minnesota. The climate's improved since then. We saw Minnesota's jobless rate drop below 8 percent in September, though employers continued to cut jobs and several thousand Minnesotans dropped out of the labor force.

Still, Lynch's perspective is an encouraging sign. "As for myself," she adds, "the good news, as always, is that I still have a job which I love...."

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Lynch reminds me that good things are happening in parts of this economy. Below are some other "good news" stories people in MPR's Public Insight Network have been telling us. Click on the map icons to read them, then share your story.

A Post-it recovery?

Posted at 2:00 PM on October 29, 2009 by Paul Tosto
Filed under: Jobs & unemployment, MinnEcon Indicator

The big news today is that the nation's gross domestic product jumped during the three months ending in September. But it's a small story we picked up from a North Mankato printer that has us thinking the recovery might be real.

"The industry I am in is the first to get hurt and the first to recover," Gerald Myking, a source in MPR's Public Insight Network,told us recently. "For about 7 1/2 months we were only working 32 hours per week. The last six to seven weeks we have been working more than 40."

Myking, 59, is a commercial printer who says his shop's primary business is producing Post-it Notes for 3M. His work tends to take an early hit in a downturn -- businesses start to cut advertising budgets when things first start getting tight.

"We are actually hiring people now," he says. "Although the retail pads have only picked-up slightly, the custom note pads used for advertising has increased substantially."

The large established business' are firming up their positions in the market place. The other survivors of this recession have now started advertising to increase their share.

The other side of our business, making labels for several different products, has also come back indicating some minor improvement in retail sales. I believe the recovery is sustainable due to business confidence. I believe consumer confidence is lagging which is why I think the recovery will be slow.

"I don't believe the recovery will be recognized until the second quarter of next year," he adds. "This is one of the worst recessions I have experienced in a very long time. Due to the severity of it and it's fragile state I am still wary."

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"I'll believe the recession's over..." or "I'm feeling a recovery now because..."

Finish one of those sentences and help us understand where the economy's headed.

And click on the map icons below to read what sources in our Network have been telling us about the jobs climate around them.

MinnEcon indicator | Town festivals stay strong despite economy

Posted at 8:08 AM on October 20, 2009 by Paul Tosto
Filed under: Greater Minnesota, MinnEcon Indicator

Pretty much every town in Minnesota celebrates something during the year with a festival. Ice fishing. Rhubarb. Buffalo. My friend Dominic Papatola did a lovely job in June talking on MPR about his favorite Minnesota summer festivals.

But the MinnEcon nerds (OK, me) don't think about fun. We wonder about what stuff means for the Minnesota economy. How have these small town festivals fared in the worst recession in decades?

Anecdotal evidence suggests they're doing OK.

I'm painting with broad strokes here. But Trisha Reinwald, executive director of the Minnesota Jaycees and a source in MPR's Public Insight Network dropped us a line recently to let us know that the hundreds of festivals, tournaments and other charitable events put on by local Jaycees are finding sponsors and drawing crowds despite the tough times.

That includes places with the some of the highest unemployment rates in Minnesota. Reinwald tells us:

We have gotten a lot of anecdotes saying that this past summer/fall that even with the economic situation- our local organizations had high attendance from the community and that donations from local businesses for these events and festivals held steady this year (both in-kind donations and cash donations).

Festivals and special events are economic drivers in many of our small towns -- we are thinking that many of these communities see how much they rely on these events to drive tourism in the summer/fall.

Perhaps localization of our economies is one way that smaller communities can/are staying afloat.

The Jaycees, she says, don't track from year to year the number of attendees or donations for its events on a statewide basis, but she noted that in Hutchinson, wracked by job losses at Hutchinson Technology, the local Jaycees chapter "was worried that it would be difficult to pull off their Annual Water Carnival. But the event fared well this past summer," says Reinwald.

In Brainerd, where unemployment topped 20 percent earlier this year and remains in double digits, the Jaycees run the $150,000 Ice Fishing Extravaganza together with local businesses. Given the scale of the event it's easy to see the positive effect on the economy, she adds.

Festivals won't pay all the bills, of course. There are plenty of cities struggling to close budget gaps and survive in this recession. But even in a lousy economy, the town festival still has the power to draw people and dollars together. For local economies in Minnesota, that's a positive indicator.

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Have you helped run a small town festival or event this year in Minnesota? How did the recession effect it? Post a comment below or click here and share a story.

Check the map below for some positive economic signs sent to us by Minnesotans in our Network, then share your own.

Creighton U sees brighter Minnesota jobs, economic outlook

Posted at 1:39 PM on October 1, 2009 by Paul Tosto
Filed under: Jobs & unemployment, MinnEcon Indicator

Creighton University economists produce a really good economic outlook index for nine Midwest states, including Minnesota. They've been good at anticipating ups-and-downs. Today's report sees a brighter Minnesota jobs and economic outlook.

The report dovetails pretty well with what we're hearing from sources in MPR's Public Insight Network. When we recently asked folks to take their economic pulse, the 50-plus responses we got were surprisingly encouraging.

Today, Creighton said its September Business Conditions Index -- a leading economic indicator from a survey of supply managers -- jumped to its highest level in two years.

In Minnesota, the university reported the state index dipped a bit but was still running at a healthy clip at 55.4. Anything above 50 on the index indicates businesses are expecting growth.

The report also noted that Minnesota's lost more than 120,000 jobs, 4.4 percent of its nonfarm employment, in the past year. Creighton Economist Ernest Goss adds:

Due in part to discouraged unemployed workers leaving the workforce, the state's unemployment rate dropped to 8 percent for August. Based on our surveys over the past several months, I expect the job outlook to improve in the months ahead.

This will stimulate the discouraged to enter the job search process and will cause the state's jobless rate to rise by 0.3 percent by the end of 2009, even as the employment outlook improves.

That's a solid forecast for the state. When Minnesota's jobless rate was jumping, Goss was forecasting that it wouldn't go above 9 percent and that's been the case.

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We're on the lookout for interesting or offbeat Minnesota economic trends. What are you seeing on the economy that's a little different that's telling you things are improving or worsening?

Click here, shoot us a note and tell us what you're seeing, then type "MinnEcon Indicator" in the headline box and send it. And check out the map below to read what people in the Network are telling us about the job climate around them.

MinnEcon Indicator: Tough economy boosts child support cases

Posted at 9:30 PM on May 27, 2009 by Paul Tosto
Filed under: Jobs & unemployment, MinnEcon Indicator, Saving & spending

Employment, personal income, consumer confidence. Those are our common gauges of economic health. But how about child support cases?

You might not have thought of that one. My MPR colleague Sasha Aslanian produced a story recently showing how the tough economy has sent the number of child support cases skyrocketing in Minnesota.

It's an issue folks from our Public Insight Network have raised: We've heard from a divorced parent, struggling in this economy, trying to come up with the money for child support. We've also heard from a parent trying to get an ex-spouse to pay it.

Rural Minnesota papers in Chisago and Wadena counties are reporting similar trends. Nationally, a recent poll of divorce lawyers found a jump in the number of requests to modify child support arrangements.

What do you do if you're a divorced parent and the money is not there? Share some thoughts below or click here and tell us a story.

I'm also using this post to kick off our search for unusual or offbeat Minnesota economic trends. What are you seeing on the economy that's a little different that's telling you things are improving or worsening?

Click here, shoot us a note and tell us what you're seeing, then type "MinnEcon Indicator" in the headline box and send it.

MinnEcon indicator: Library computer use morphs in a tough economy

Posted at 9:28 PM on May 28, 2009 by Paul Tosto
Filed under: Greater Minnesota, Jobs & unemployment, MinnEcon Indicator

Unemployment in Wadena County, Minn., typically runs in cycles -- up in cold months down in warm. But this recession is altering a lot of patterns and Wadena's jobless rate isn't falling the way it has in the past, hitting 13.6 percent in March, the highest in two decades

Wadena, in north central Minnesota, caught our interest after Laura Spilman shared a different look at unemployment from her vantage point -- she's a library assistant at the Wadena city library where job searching, she says, has trumped chatting and games on the library's free computers.

Spilman, part of MPR's Public Insight Network, writes:

It used to be that our 7 public internet computers stood fairly open during the school day, then, we would be overrun with school kids coming in to play the computers games and do the chatting stuff that kids like to do. Now, and especially since last Sept. or so, the computers are usually almost all in use from the time we open until we close. The increase is in the number of adults coming in to use them.

Now, we do not make a habit of prying into what people are using the computers for, but one cannot help but notice when a patron asks for assistance. We have many people coming in to do their weekly unemployment as well as apply for jobs, work on resumes etc. I don't think a day goes by that we don't get at least one patron asking for help in navigating the not so user friendly job service site, because they have little to no computer experience.

We had someone ask at the desk just the other day if we were hiring at the moment and of course we are not. Her rather frustrated reply was, "Geez,you know, not even Wal-Mart is hiring around here." That kind of sums up the situation around here.

Click on the chart for a view of Wadena County's unemployment

Retailing and manufacturing drive the region's workforce. Among the largest private employers: Wadena-based outdoor furniture maker Homecrest Industries.

Earlier this week, the Minnesota Labor Department reported the county's jobless rate fell to 11 percent in April. But that's not the kind of spring boost the county's come to expect.

"It appears the pattern of dropping in the spring has resumed albeit at a much higher level of unemployment for April than in the three previous years," says Paul Sailer, the county's human services director.

The county, he adds, has also seen "an upward trend" in demands for food support, medical assistance, child support and unemployment since January.

Spilman worries the library will be viewed as expendable despite the rising need. That's could make life difficult for the people who depend on the library. It could also make life challenging for her.

"My husband is currently laid off because of the downturn in the house market. So, coupled with that and my feeling that cuts to my position could happen, we have really tightened the belt a lot (not that we were extravagant spenders to begin with).

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We're on the lookout for unusual or offbeat Minnesota economic trends. What are you seeing on the economy that's a little different that's telling you things are improving or worsening?

Click here, shoot us a note and tell us what you're seeing, then type "MinnEcon Indicator" in the headline box and send it.

Wadena County's recession, by the numbers

Posted at 9:26 PM on May 28, 2009 by Paul Tosto
Filed under: Greater Minnesota, Jobs & unemployment, MinnEcon Indicator

I posted earlier today on the recession's impact from the vantage point of a librarian assistant in Wadena, Minn., who's seen the library's Internet use morph from kids chatting and playing games to adults searching for jobs.

But unemployment -- 11 percent in April and 13.6 percent in March -- is only a piece of the picture of Wadena's recession.

Paul Sailer, human services director in Wadena County has been tracking data showing the rising needs of citizens there. Below is the detail he sent me. Most of it is self-explanatory. The Minnesota Family Investment Program is the state's family welfare program.

What do you see in the data? I'm struck by a couple of stats: the jump in the number of households on food support and the jump in the number of non-custodial parents receiving unemployment benefits. That matches up with what we posted earlier this week that the tough economy often translates into more child support cases.

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We remain on the lookout for unusual or offbeat Minnesota economic trends, something a little different from the typical data that you're using to judge if things are getting better or worse.

Click here, shoot us a note and tell us what you're seeing, then type "MinnEcon Indicator" in the headline box and send it.

MinnEcon indicator: Viewing the recession from the pulpit

Posted at 12:43 AM on June 8, 2009 by Paul Tosto
Filed under: MinnEcon Indicator, Saving & spending

Religious leaders have a great vantage point on this economy. They witness the daily joys and struggles of their congregation and do their best to help people through. They may also worry about their own jobs as they minister to others.

We've kept tabs the past few months on a few ministers in our Public Insight Network. We asked them recently for some updates on what they're seeing. Several wrote back, including Evelyn Weston, a minister in southwest Minnesota. In February she told us:

Things don't seem as bad in rural MN as we hear about in metro areas. I think everyone is waiting for the recession to hit our area, but we're really not feeling the affects yet -- just the anxiety about what may come.

The economy remains pretty resilient in the state's southwest corner, which has the lowest unemployment in the state. But Evelyn told us last week the worry is out there.

Parishioners definitely are concerned about the economy...One family owns a business that makes super-insulated building materials. Business had been very good, but now the workers hours have been cut to 4-days/week. Lots of interest in getting estimates for building projects, but banks aren't approving construction loans.

There also is concern about what will happen with farming. As usual, weather factors in; it's too dry. But costs of inputs were high last fall, fuel costs are rising again, yield and price may be low. Another farm crisis is a possibility. That could have a devastating effect on many rural churches.

We're responding by keeping our ears to the ground for people who may need financial help. But there is a lot of pride about those kinds of things in rural areas, so we may not hear about it.

Zach Wilson, minister at a suburban Twin Cities church, told us in December that while financial giving to the church was ahead of budget,

Volunteering has actually suffered more than finances. While people in my congregation are not losing their jobs they are working longer hours and have less energy to give both to the internal ministry of the church and the outward social justice ministries of the church. When we have emphasized gathering food for the food shelves or providing presents for families in need the congregation has responded more strongly than ever.

Asked about anything that's surprised him in the months since the winter, Wilson last week wrote:

The trend toward living away from family has surprised me. People will always do what they have to do but the fact that they actually have to make the drastic choice to live apart from their families for financial reasons illustrates how severe the economic downturn is for some.

That's a compelling trend. MPR's Annie Baxter did a story a few weeks ago on the hardship of a spouse or partner leaving town to find work.

Wilson notes his personal financial anxiety centers on how the birth of his second child will affect the family finances.

"My wife and I are both pastors with decent incomes but there is no daycare for the hours we keep and I'm not sure the family help we currently rely upon will be able to fill in the gaping wholes in our childcare schedule -- and one of us quitting our jobs is not really a viable financial option. We'll just have to take it as it comes."

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We're on the lookout for interesting or offbeat Minnesota economic trends. What are you seeing on the economy that's a little different that's telling you things are improving or worsening?

Click here, shoot us a note and tell us what you're seeing, then type "MinnEcon Indicator" in the headline box and send it.

Also, check some of the responses below we've received recently from Public Insight Network members on money issues.

MinnEcon Indicator: Minnesotans boast high credit scores for car loans

Posted at 12:41 AM on June 10, 2009 by Paul Tosto
Filed under: MinnEcon Indicator, Saving & spending

Minnesota's economy may be on the skids, but, hey, we're looking good if we want to buy a car.

Minnesota, Connecticut, Wisconsin, Iowa and Massachusetts topped the list of states with the highest average credit score for new vehicle loans in the first three months of 2009, according to Experian Automotive, part of the Experian credit scoring company,

Minnesota, North Dakota and Wisconsin were among the top five for highest scores on used vehicle loan.

Whether anyone can afford cars is another issue. Nationally, the survey notes that the lousy economy and tougher lending criteria are driving up auto loans for used cars, which accounted for more than two-thirds of the loans made in the first quarter of the year.

Drop us a line and let us know if you're spending money (or planning to) on a new or used car and what the experience has been like. Below you can find what others in our Public Insight Network have told us recently about how they're spending money, or not.

MinnEcon Indicator: A buyer's market for Twin Cities temps?

Posted at 12:02 AM on June 29, 2009 by Paul Tosto
Filed under: Jobs & unemployment, MinnEcon Indicator, Twin Cities metro

The recession's put hundreds of accountants and other back office people on the street in the Twin Cities. Many are seeking work through temp agencies. Now the price for that talent is falling.

The St. Paul office of ACCOUNTEMPS emailed local employers recently offering deep discounts -- as much as 30 percent -- to employers looking to fill back office jobs. Examples:

Staff Accountant: $ 36.64, now starting at $25.24

Data Entry - $20.76, now $14.45

College Student (Accounting Major)/Summer Help-- was $21.53, now starting at $15.93

The pitch to employers acknowledged the hard times. "Staff overworked due to RIF? Retain your most valuable employees by keeping morale high. Let our trained and proven professionals pick up the extra load."

Laura Goerges, staffing manager for ACCOUNTEMPS in St. Paul, said the discounting is a response to the rising supply of job candidates.

"The slash in prices is just following market value for positions in today's economy," says Goerges.

"This is something my team came up with to educate our clients that the market is changing and we have more options with very qualified candidates willing to work for less as they can't find work easily," she says.

While Minnesota's jobless pain is showing signs of easing, professional and business services have taken a huge hit, losing 30,600 jobs over the past year, nearly 10 percent of that workforce.

The economy will recover eventually. But how many of those lost jobs will come back?

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We're on the lookout for interesting or offbeat Minnesota economic trends. What are you seeing on the economy that's a little different that's telling you things are improving or worsening?

Click here, shoot us a note and tell us what you're seeing.

Also, check some of the responses below we've received recently from Public Insight Network members on job issues.