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March 21, 2005
Cracks in the facade

You knew the good feelings would fade as time went on. As the legislative session nears the Easter break, there are signs that the bipartisan spirit is breaking down. Let's look at those signs. On Friday, the House Civil Law Committee went to Grand Rapids to debate that proposed constitutional amendment that would ban gay marriage. The result? The committee voted 7-5 along party lines, with Republicans supporting the bill and Democrats opposing it.

How about the House Gaming Division meeting on Friday? The committee approved two bills. One was Gov. Pawlenty's Plan for a new Twin Cities casino. The other was the plan to put slot machines at Canterbury Park. The votes weren't recorded, but Republicans spoke in favor of the gambling plans while DFLers spoke against.

And in one of the more interesting (and potentially troubling for the GOP House majority) twists, one Republican announced he was unhappy with the majority's budget plan. Here's How the AP wrote it:

[Rep. Dan Dorman, R-Albert Lea,] said he would push to add $750 million to a budget resolution developed by House GOP leaders. Dorman said it would free up more money for education.

With the House divided 68-66 in favor of Republicans, the defection of even a couple Republican legislators can shift power to Democrats. Dorman said he thinks he has five to eight Republicans willing to join him in amending the budget resolution.

The budget resolution sets the maximum amount the House will agree to spend for the 2006-07 budget cycle. As it stands, that would be $29.8 billion - anything more than that would require a tax increase.

Dorman said that while the resolution does not specify where the extra money would come from, nor does it have to, he would prefer to see a sales tax on clothing. House research, he said, indictates the tax would easily raise more than $750 million.

House Speaker Steve Sviggum, R-Kenyon, said he won't hold a vote on the resolution if he senses it is in trouble. He said a natural growth in tax revenue is driving up the budget as it is.

"A two-billion dollar increase over last biennium ought to be enough," he said.

Sviggum can control a vote on a budget resolution, but if there really are a half dozen Republicans who are convinced the state needs to spend more, his job just got much harder.

DFLers in the Senate are expected to announce a budget fall-back plan on Monday that would do some tweaking to resolve the shortfall, but not make major changes over the next biennium if the session ends in gridlock again. At first glance it's hard to see why Gov. Pawlenty or House Republicans would be interested in that. On the other hand, if everything collapses a no-growth budget might look better to "no-new-taxes" conservatives than having to put up with a spending revolt by moderates. But of course, we're getting ahead of ourselves.

Frederic Frommer of the AP has more on that issue of Norm Coleman's apparent move away from President Bush and toward the center:

Steven Schier, a political scientist at Carleton College in Northfield, Minn., said that the votes will play well back home.

"Anybody who runs against him will have a hard time painting him as a Bush clone," Schier said. "This may help soften his image with swing voters.

Schier said Coleman is probably acting out of a combination of motives.

"There's political calculation, happenstance and serious conviction all mixed up in these things," he said.

Mike Erlandson, the chairman of the Minnesota DFL, joked that maybe Coleman will return to the Democratic Party again.

"It's hard to say whether this is Coleman remaking himself one more time," Erlandson said. "He's been very much of a Bush supporter his first two years."

There was an interesting story in the Pioneer Press over the weekend about Mike Hatch's efforts to convince largely GOP audiences that he has a plan to get a handle on health care costs. Here's some of what Bill Salisbury wrote:

The man who sued health care plans over executive perks and other issues now says the courtroom isn't where real change will be made in health care so now he's focusing on grassroots organizing including the chicken-dinner circuit. His opponents are skeptical, citing Hatch's well-known political ambitions.

But with soaring health care costs, his message is finding an audience in unlikely places like Jordan, where he launched into a biting, 20-minute critique of the U.S. health care system: The United States spends more per person on health care than any other nation. Health insurance premiums in Minnesota have doubled in seven years. Medical bills are a leading cause of personal bankruptcy. Behind every doctor and nurse treating patients there are five or six bureaucrats processing paper.

His indictment went on and on. Heads nodded in agreement as he described problems that are driving health costs and harming people who need care.

When he finished, the group of small business owners and managers — hardly his natural political allies — gave him a standing ovation.

Critics say anyone can lay out the problem, and that Hatch's proposed fixes won't do the whole job. But health care is definitely Hatch's issue. If he can get the 2006 gubernatorial campaign focused on it he may be running with a home court advantage.



Posted by Mike Mulcahy at 6:31 AM